Virginia Tech Basketball: Breaking Down the ACC Race

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Buzz Williams Virginia Tech
Buzz Williams appears to be mulling over the Hokies’ chances to finish in the top four of the ACC race. (Photo by Ivan Morozov)

We’re down to the last two weeks of ACC play, and with Virginia Tech in fourth place in the conference, fans are starting to ask: What are the Hokies’ chances for a double-bye (top 4) in this year’s ACC Tournament?

The 2019 ACC Tournament runs from Tuesday, March 12 to Saturday, March 16, and this is the breakdown for which teams get byes, and which ones don’t.

  • Teams 10-15 play on Tuesday.
  • Teams 5-9 get a bye and start play on Wednesday.
  • Teams 1-4 get a double bye and start play on Thursday.

Here’s a look at the current ACC Standings:

Now here’s a look at the projected final ACC standings, per ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index (BPI).

The BPI predicts that Virginia, Duke and UNC — all currently 12-2 in conference play — will each finish with 15 to 16 wins in the ACC. That puts those three teams in a clear Tier 1, three wins ahead of the No. 4 team and beyond.

There is a group of five teams in Tier 2 (spots 4-8) that includes Florida State, Virginia Tech, NC State, Louisville, and Syracuse, all of which are predicted to win 10-12 games. Clemson, the No. 9 team, is predicted to win eight games and probably isn’t within reach of Tier 2.
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That means that the five teams listed above in Tier 2 are all battling for the No. 4 spot and a double bye. Let’s take a look at their schedules.

Date
VT (10-5)
FSU (9-5)
Syracuse (9-5)
Louisville (9-6)
NC State (8-7)
Mon, Feb 25vs.
Tues, Feb 26vs. @
Wed, Feb 27@
Sat, Mar 2vs. @@
Sun, Mar 3vs.
Mon, Mar 4vs.
Tue, Mar 5@vs.
Wed, Mar 6vs.
Fri, Mar 8vs.
Sat, Mar 9@@@@
Remaining SOS67433760

That’s your handy rooting guide for the rest of the season, starting with Florida State hosting Notre Dame tonight. This should be a tight race for the middle of the pack the rest of the way.

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24 Responses You are logged in as Test

  1. Did Syracuse really play Florida State on March 2, 2019. The schedule chart appears to have multiple errors ???

  2. Hokies want to be considered a threat in March it’s time to go 3-0 to finish the regular season and make sure it’s a double bye. This team has surprised me all year. A great start would be beating Flopper University this Tuesday. Let’s go…

  3. Awesome chart, Will. I’d love to beat FSU and get the 4th seed, but with JR coming back(?) maybe get an extra game in the ACC tourney works in our favor? He’s going to need some tune up time.

    I’m a silver lining specialist.

  4. Louisville has the inside track; beating FSU is certainly a necessity to have any chance of a double bye.

    1. notice ‘free shoes/seafood’ plays 3 of their 4 at home; and the 1 away is against ‘pounded cake.’ looks like the 4th-place driver’s seat.

      beat the odds Hokies!

  5. If we beat FSU and are 12-7, and LVille is also 12-7, will they win the tie breaker and get the 4 seed?

  6. Unfortunately, I think ‘Cuse/UofL/VT all end with 11 wins and that would leave VT in the 7th seed.

      1. But Cuse beat UL and UL beat us so we are all 1-1. I think we get screwed in a theee way tie with those teams because they both beat someone in the top 3 and we have not (assuming we lose to Duke)

  7. FSU no doubt has the easiest schedule. As others predict it will most likely come down to our game with them

  8. Will there’s an error in your expected results chart. You have NCState listed better with 10 wins than the other 2 with 10.7 wins.

      1. Yeah, that’s weird. That’s a screen cap of the ESPN display, and I’m not sure why it’s arranged that way.

    1. Way I see it. At least, no point in worrying about any other game. Beat FSU let the rest of the teams shake it out and then see where we stand.

  9. Ugh, we’re 12-3 with JRob at worst and you could argue that 13-2 might even be more realistic with how that hoo game went down.

    I don’t see any way we would have dropped the LU and CU games. High 3 seed material.

  10. Assuming be beat Miami, and Louisville loses at UVA, it will come down to the FSU game. Win we are 4th seed, even if we lose to Duke.

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