Inside The Numbers: How Much Offensive Improvement Can We Expect?

Virginia Tech, Inside the Numbers
Virginia Tech head coach Brent Pry is hoping the offense can improve quite a bit. (Ivan Morozov)

Virginia Tech ranked at the bottom of the ACC in 2022 when averaging FEI offense and S&P+ offense. On Monday, we’ll dive inside the numbers for all the ACC teams and do a year-over-year comparison for 2021. Everyone expects the Hokies to be better offensively in 2023, but exactly how much can they improve?

S&P+ and FEI are different metrics with different calculations. In some instances, they can vary quite a bit, though the rankings are pretty close overall. Bill Connelly created S&P+ and describes it this way: “In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.”

FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index) ratings “represent the per-possession scoring advantage each offense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent.” Some of the advanced metrics that I use for articles come from the FEI, such as touchdown rate, value drive rate, busted drive rate, etc.

While both rankings are different, I’m not sure I value one over the other. I generally use FEI because it includes those other interesting numbers, but in the end, both sets of rankings usually tell the same story.

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