Game Preview: Brent Pry Era At Virginia Tech Begins At Old Dominion

• Virginia Tech at Old Dominion: Friday, September 2, 7pm, ESPNU
• Virginia Tech vs. ODU Betting Line: VT -7
• Virginia Tech-ODU roster cards: Click here
• Game notes from Hokiesports: Click here
• Norfolk weather: Click here
• Gameday information: Click here

After months of talking about the new Virginia Tech coaching staff, praising Brent Pry’s cultural fit, his relationship-building with high school coaches in the state of Virginia, and his ability to put together a coaching staff that appears to know what they’re doing, we finally get to watch the Hokies play a football game. Pry has said and done everything right so far, and now comes the ultimate test: real, actual football games.

Tech opens the season at Old Dominion, the site of the infamous disaster in 2018. Many fans don’t like that the Hokies play in Norfolk, but this one isn’t about who or where the Hokies are playing. This one is about a fresh start, and the beginning of what we all hope is a long, successful tenure for the likeable Pry.

The Monarchs are coming off a 6-7 season. It’s cliché to say that most teams go through peaks and valleys during the course of the season. In ODU’s case, the 2021 season started with one big valley and ended with a giant peak. The program began the season with a 1-6 record, with the only victory coming over Hampton. Then ODU ripped off five consecutive victories between October 30 and November 27 before ultimately falling to Tulsa 30-17 in the Myrtle Beach Bowl to finish the season 6-7.

Overall, it was a very acceptable first year on the field for head coach Ricky Rahne. He was hired before the 2020 season began, but ODU cancelled its 2020 season due to COVID, and the Monarchs had to go into 2021 having taken a year off from football. How much did that rustiness have to do with their 1-6 start? We can never know to be sure, but I expect if I were an ODU fan, I’d believe that it had a lot to do with it considering how the team finished the regular season.

That being said, the Monarchs didn’t exactly run through murderers’ row down the stretch. They picked up a victory over 7-6 Middle Tennessee, winning 24-17, but here were the records of their other five victims…

Louisiana Tech: 3-9
FIU: 1-11
FAU: 5-7
Charlotte: 5-7

Virginia Tech will pose a much sterner test.

Virginia Tech Injury Notes

Here are some notes on Virginia Tech injuries to players in the two-deep…

RB Malachi Thomas: Pry confirmed on Tuesday that Thomas is still “week-to-week” and will not play this weekend.

LB Keli Lawson: Lawson is still “unavailable,” as deemed last week by Pry. was left off the depth chart this week as he continues to recover from a knee injury.

DE C.J. McCray: McCray was also left off the depth chart as he deals with a minor issue. Pry labeled McCray as “touch-and-go” at the moment and is hopeful he makes the trip.

WR Jadan Blue: Blue starts off second string on the depth chart after missing much of August with an injury. UNC transfer Stephen Gosnell will take his place in the starting lineup.

The Opposing Coaching Staffs

It’s pretty rare that two coaching staffs know each other as well as these two. Virginia Tech head coach Brent Pry and Old Dominion big whistle Ricky Rahne are close friends, having coached together under James Franklin at Vanderbilt and Penn State. Rahne was the offensive coordinator for his last two seasons in Happy Valley (2018-19) and previously coached PSU’s quarterbacks and tight ends.

Of course, there’s more two it than just the two head coaches. Pry hired away wide receivers coach Fontel Mines from the ODU staff in the offseason, and he also brought in strength & conditioning coach Dwight Galt IV from the Monarchs. Replacing Mines as tight ends coach in Norfolk is former Virginia Tech wide receiver Justin Harper.

ODU offensive coordinator/OL coach Kevin Reihner played at Penn State and was a graduate assistant there. He was also a graduate assistant at Fordham, where current Virginia Tech offensive coordinator Tyler Bowen was on the staff for two seasons. Kevin Smith, who coaches special teams and outside linebackers for the Monarchs, was a defensive graduate assistant under Pry at Penn State. Wide receivers coach Mark Dupuis was a grad assistant at PSU as well, and you can find even more ties if you dig down into the support staffs of both programs.

Both teams will likely run very similar offensive systems, and both coaching staffs will have the opposing team very well-scouted. It’s an intriguing matchup, and though the Hokies have new faces at quarterback and wide receiver on offense, the ODU staff will have a much better idea about what Virginia Tech wants to do than any other opponent would in the opening game of the season. The reverse applies as well, with Brent Pry being very familiar with what Rahne likes to do offensively.

Penn State fans weren’t always necessarily happy with Rahne’s offense, as you can see here, but that’s par for the course in college football, as Virginia Tech fans know all too well.

A Year Of Change At ODU

Late last November, Rahne fired offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Kirk Campbell. He replaced him by hiring Dave Patenaude, who had previously served as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Georgia Tech. He had a background at Temple, Coastal Carolina, Georgetown and Hofstra, too.

As it turned out, Patenaude didn’t even get to coach a single game. He resigned just three weeks ago in the middle of the preseason. It was strange timing for a coaching change, and with no quarterbacks coach now listed on the ODU staff page, it is assumed that Rahne has taken control of that unit himself, with the help of grad assistant Michael Shuster, who (stop me if you’ve heard this before) played at Penn State. As for the offensive coordinator role, Rahne promoted the aforementioned Reihner to that position.

How much will the changes affect ODU? It’s not ideal for that to happen in the preseason, but considering that Rahne most likely has his hands all over the offense anyway, it’s not likely to have a major negative effect.

Quarterback Hayden Wolff

Hayden Wolff (6-5, 235, r-So.) is a Florida native who beat out Virginians Brendon Clark (6-2, 225, So.) and D.J. Mack Jr. (6-3, 215, Sr.) for the starting quarterback job. Clark is a Richmond native whose career didn’t work out at Notre Dame, while Mack originally went to UCF, where he started some games before transferring home to Norfolk to play for the Monarchs.

Wolff played a little as a freshman in 2019, throwing two touchdowns and three interceptions in three games. However, he found himself a backup to begin the 2021 season before taking over as the starter against Western Kentucky on October 16. The Monarchs lost that game, but their winning streak began two weeks later with Wolff behind center against Louisiana Tech, and he went 5-2 as the starting quarterback.

He’s a big guy in the pocket who completed 62.8% of his passes for 1,933 yards with 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He’s got some solid targets to toss it to, and though the Monarchs like to be balanced, they’ll throw it around a lot if Rahne feels like it gives them their best chance to win. Wolff attempted over 40 passes in two of his first three starts, though he attempted fewer than 30 passes in each of the final three games of the season .

Mobile quarterbacks have given Virginia Tech (and a lot of other teams) plenty of trouble through the years, but they don’t have to worry about that this week. For his career, Wolff has 26 carries for -102 yards, an average of -3.9 yards per carry. He has had positive rushing yards in just one game during his career: against Texas-San Antonio in 2019  when he carried the ball seven times for a grand total of one yard.

Pry is aggressive by nature, and with a quarterback who lacks escapability, I would expect him to go after Wolff to try and get some sacks and put the Monarchs in long-yardage situation. How the Hokies hold up in coverage while blitzing will be critical for the performance of the Virginia Tech defense.

ODU’s Two Big Receiving Threats

Not many teams have a tight end for their leader in receptions, but Monarch tight end Zack Kuntz (6-8, 251, r-Jr.) led the team with 73 catches for 692 yards (9.5 avg.) and five touchdowns a year ago. Kuntz has great size and presents a big target for Wolff, and ODU will line him up in a variety of roles…

Slot: 317 snaps
Inline: 288
Wide: 44
Backfield: 14

Sometimes Kuntz is a wideout, sometimes he’s a slot receiver, sometimes he’s a traditional tight end, and occasionally he’s in the backfield as an H-back role. He’s a very versatile player, and considering his size, it may be a bit surprising that he’s lined up in the slot more than any other role. Depending on what side of the field he’s lined up on, Sam linebacker Keonta Jenkins and Will linebacker Jaden Keller – as well as Tech’s safeties – will be defending him quite a bit. Though he’s big, Kuntz doesn’t have much speed, so those players will have to use their athletic advantage to make up for their size disadvantage.

Like so many others in this contest, Kuntz has PSU ties. He played for the Nittany Lions before transferring to Old Dominion, though he wasn’t quite so prolific in Happy Valley, catching three passes for 26 yards in his two seasons on the field. Pry said on Tuesday that he recruited Kuntz to PSU with Tech offensive coordinator Tyler Bowen and Rahne.

The other main receiving threat for the Monarchs, like Kuntz, is a transfer. Ali Jennings III (6-2, 196, Jr.) began his career at West Virginia, where he caught 26 passes in two seasons before transferring back to his home state to play for ODU. Jennings played for former Virginia Tech cornerback Loren Johnson at Highland Springs High School in Richmond.

It proved a good decision to transfer for Jennings, who caught 62 passes for 1,066 yards (17.2 avg.) and five touchdowns a year ago. He had a pair of massive games for the Monarchs in 2021, catching 13 passes for 172 yards against Western Kentucky, and another nine passes for a whopping 252 yards and three touchdowns in the regular season finale against Charlotte.

However, it must be noted that neither player did very much in ODU’s only game against Power 5 competition last season. In the season opening 42-10 loss to eventual Atlantic Division Champion Wake Forest, Kuntz has three receptions for 19 yards, while Jennings finished with only two catches for 17 yards, and the Demon Deacons didn’t exactly have a great defense last year. That being said, it was ODU’s first football game since 2019, so there was obviously some rust that the team needed to kick off.

Offensive Balance

What really makes the Old Dominion offense go is the running game. It averaged 158.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry a year ago, which are solid numbers considering their quarterback routinely rushes for negative yardage.

Starter Blake Watson (5-9, 195, r-Jr.) ran for 1,112 yards on 215 carries (5.2 ypc) and eight touchdowns a year ago. Backup Elijah Davis, who I wanted Virginia Tech to offer out of high school, chipped in with 562 yards (5.4 ypc) and six touchdowns. However, despite being on the ODU roster in the spring, Davis is not listed on their roster as of today, and a Google search doesn’t reveal anything.

Jon-Luke Peaker (5-9, 192, So.) was the No. 3 back last year, totaling 184 yards, but the loss of Davis could certainly be a blow to the Monarch running game.

The Old Dominion Defense

In terms of traditional metrics, the Old Dominion defense was sound against the run last season, but it struggled at times against the pass.

Here are the rushing defense numbers…

YPG: 134.15, No. 34 nationally
YPC: 3.55, No. 24 nationally

And here are those passing numbers…

YPG: 250.8, No. 103 nationally
QBR: 141.14, No. 90 nationally

Opposing quarterbacks were usually pretty efficient against the Monarchs. Current Virginia Tech quarterback Grant Wells faced the ODU defense last season, so there is some familiarity. Wells was 30-of-46 (65.2%) for 299 yards and two touchdowns in that contest, though he also threw two interceptions, which hurt his overall efficiency numbers.

Old Dominion will compete in the Sun Belt this season. However, the program was a member of Conference USA in 2021. In the 14-team conference, ODU’s defense was middle-of-the-pack according to PFF. Here’s where it ranked in each category…

Overall: No. 8
Rushing: No. 8
Tackling: No. 7
Pass rush: No. 11
Coverage: No. 4

The FEI defensive ratings are similar, with the Monarchs being very average, or perhaps slightly below average, across the board throughout all of college football…

Overall: No. 78
Drive efficiency: No. 67
Touchdown rate: No. 70
Value rate: No. 82
First down rate: No. 60
Busted drive rate: No. 58
Turnover rate: No. 76

Defensive Standouts

Despite better overall numbers against the run, most of Old Dominion’s top-graded players last season were in the secondary. Of the five players who graded out 70+, four were defensive backs. Much like what I expect the Hokies to be like under Brent Pry, I expect the Monarchs to be aggressive defensively and leave some of their defensive backs on an island a little more than most teams, which can lead to some sub-par stats but not necessarily sub-par grades.

However, the Monarchs did lose their top two grading cornerbacks who each played over 700 snaps in 2021, including nickel corner Joe Headon. Outside corner Tre Hawkins III (6-3, 195, Sr.) returns after playing over 900 snaps a year ago, grading out at a solid 67.0. He was perhaps ODU’s most consistent corner on a game-by-game basis, though he was better against the run than the pass.

Linebacker Jordan Young, now of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, is also gone. Overall, the Monarchs lost three of their top four highest-grading players. Young led the team with seven tackles for loss, and nobody else had more than five. Marcus Haynes (6-4, 240, Sr.) led the defense with 5.5 sacks, and he is back for his senior season, though he performed at a below average level against the run in 2021. Haynes, if you recall, had two sacks as a freshman against Virginia Tech in 2018. Those were his only two sacks of the season, and he’s only had nine others during the course of his career.

Safety R’Tarriun Johnson (5-11, 196, r-Sr.) was a Conference USA Honorable Mention All-American last season and probably Old Dominion’s most consistent defensive player across the board. He was equally sound against the run and the pass, and he tackled well. In fact, he was the third highest-grading safety in Conference USA last season, and he probably should have had had better postseason recognition than honorable mention.

Terry Jones (6-1, 187, r-So.) combines with Johnson at safety to form a very nice combination. His performances picked up in the second half of last season, though as noted earlier, Old Dominion played a very low level of competition during that span. Nevertheless, safety is arguably the strength of the Monarch defense. Jones is a versatile player who can line up at slot corner, safety or in the box.

Overall, Old Dominion wasn’t a big playmaking defense last season. Here’s how that unit ranked in terms of disruption…

TFL: No. 75 nationally
Sacks: No. 80
INT: No. 104
FF: No. 78
FR: No. 30

This Monarch defense was average or a little sub-par against mostly a Conference USA schedule last season. Here is the FEI rankings of each FBS offense Old Dominion had to face…

Wake Forest: No. 10
Liberty: No. 48
Buffalo: No. 98
UTEP: No. 91
Marshall: No. 61
Western Kentucky: No. 9
LA Tech: No. 92
FIU: No. 122
FAU: No. 102
MTSU: No. 115
Charlotte: No. 71

ODU lost all three games against top 50 offenses, while the majority of their winning streak late in the season came against some of the worst offenses in the country.

Special Teams

Last season, ODU was excellent in the return game, but it struggled at times to cover kicks.

Kickoff efficiency: No. 109
Punt efficiency: No. 90

ODU allowed a kickoff for a 99-yard touchdown, and its touchback percentage of 27.78% was one of the worst in the country (No. 108 out of 130). Meanwhile, the Monarchs ranked No. 115 out of 130 in average yards per punt.

However, they were lights out when it came to their own returns:

Kickoff return efficiency: No. 7
Punt return efficiency: No. 14

The Monarchs averaged 11.6 yards per punt return a year ago, while LaMareon James (5-10, 187, So.) returned two kickoffs for touchdowns.

Tech’s coverage teams will have to be sound, though the Hokies should also have their own chances in the return game. Of note, both teams are breaking in a new place kicker. Dominik Soos, who handled kickoff duties last year, is expected to be the field goal kicker for the Monarchs. William Ross (6-1, 209, r-Jr.) was listed first on the depth chart for Virginia Tech on Tuesday, and Kyle Lowe (6-3, 197, r-So.) is the kickoff specialist.

Final Thoughts

Virginia Tech has a lot of new coaches, new quarterbacks and even a couple of transfer wide receivers in their starting lineup. Normally there would be a whole lot of unknown, but ODU’s staff is very familiar with what Pry’s staff will want to do. Both sides will probably cancel each other out from an X’s and O’s standpoint, though with a bigger support staff and the fact that the Monarchs changed offensive coordinators earlier this month, the Hokies should have a slight advantage.

When X’s and O’s cancel each other out, it’s about the players. Who has more talent? Virginia Tech does. If the Hokies don’t, then we’ll all be in for a long season. This is a game that Tech should win, all else being equal. Will all else be equal? Turnovers and field position are the great equalizers, of course. It’s important that Grant Wells and the Hokie offense protect the football. I don’t think ODU stands a great chance of beating Tech without the Hokies making grave mistakes, so if they don’t give the Monarchs short fields, everything should roll Tech’s way.

I know Old Dominion won this game in 2018, and the result of that game makes some Tech fans a bit scared of their own shadows when thinking about this one. That’s understandable, I suppose. But in the end, the team with the best players usually wins in college football, and I think Tech has the best players in this one.

I don’t think Tech will steamroll ODU. It’s a big game for the Monarchs. They’ve got plenty of in-state players, and their fans will certainly be excited. But I do think the Hokies will win, and I believe it will be fairly comfortable in the end.

Chris Coleman’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Old Dominion 17

Will Stewart’s Take: Virginia Tech returns to the scene of the crime this Friday. The Hokies revisit the place where Justin Fuente’s Virginia Tech tenure started its slide after a promising start. It is every Hokie fans’ hope that this time, a game at ODU turns into a positive launching point.

Fuente was 21-8 at Tech prior to the 2018 game at ODU. From that point on, he went 22-23. An interesting stat: Fuente went 6-2 against UNC and UVA after that ODU game … and 16-21 against everyone else. I could slice and dice this stuff in curious ways forever.

That disastrous 49-35 loss at ODU by then-No. 13 Virginia Tech was a microcosm of everything that ailed Virginia Tech under Fuente: key injuries (Josh Jackson), player dissension (an argument shoving match on the sidelines, following by more unrest in the locker room), and a defense that collapsed down the stretch.

Virginia Tech fans will be looking to see evidence that those types of elements have been erased from the program, starting Friday night. What you see against ODU won’t necessarily be indicative of how Brent Pry’s career will go at VT, but it is the first exhibit.

What will happen? Pfft. Who knows? We know a little about ODU but almost nothing about Virginia Tech. The Monarchs return a lot of last year’s production, both offensively and defensively. Virginia Tech does not, at least not comparatively. That’s concerning.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see both QBs have some success, as Hayden Wolff has a couple receivers he’s comfortable with and Grant Wells proved last year he can pile up the yardage. The winner of this game might be decided by which QB has learned to cut down on his interceptions and improve his TD/INT ratio.

Those last two paragraphs are the extent of the pre-game analysis you’ll find from me, because I won’t be so arrogant as to assume I have any idea of how Friday’s game will go. But hopefully, Virginia Tech’s players, fans, and program won’t be in shock like they were four years ago after a visit to S.B. Ballard Stadium.

Will Stewart’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Old Dominion 20

David Cunningham’s Take: Virginia Tech is 5-1 in its last six season-openers, with its one exception being Boston College in 2019. It’s always difficult to predict what teams will look like at the beginning of the year, and it’s even more difficult in certain ways with Brent Pry’s program because there are so many new faces and new roles.

The Hokies definitely have the talent advantage over the Monarchs, though that was the case in 2018, too, a game no one wants to rehash. But this Tech team has talent, especially when all pieces are healthy. A team that has Keli Lawson and Malachi Thomas at full strength would be a bit more dangerous than this one, but Tech has to roll with its available roster.

What does that look like? A starting 22 that is solid enough to hold up in the thick of the ACC, in my opinion. It’s down the depth chart where things get dangerous. But how deep will Tech have to go in week one in Norfolk?

Both staffs obviously know what the other is going to throw at them. I think the defining factor will be how Pry and his staff adjust throughout the game. They’ve got plenty of experience, after all. Shawn Quinn was previously a head coach, while Joe Rudolph and Brad Glenn were offensive coordinators before. That’s without mentioning Pry’s experience, too.

Only time will tell how Pry & Co. handle playcalling and those aforementioned adjustments, but Virginia Tech has the talent advantage. I expect the defense to get some key stops, Grant Wells to really air it out, and Tech will be on the gas from the get-go. I don’t expect a blowout by any means, but it should be a good enough advantage to where the Hokies can get some of their young players some experience in the late stages. Most importantly, Tech should cover the 7.5-point spread.

David Cunningham’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Old Dominion 20