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1) Recruiting ratings/rankings…you’ve mentioned the 2021 player ratings are a mess because of missed evaluation periods/camps. Assuming the recruiting services decide to update player star ratings and can be somewhat accurate, don’t you feel that many of our recruits could receive quite a bump? Enough to have a modest bump in our overall 2021 recruiting ranking? – vtce2000
Chris Coleman: The thing is, I can’t assume that they can be “somewhat accurate.” Evaluating most recruits is a bit of a crapshoot even in a normal year, but this season it’s even crazier. Let’s take a couple of Virginia Tech’s in-state commitments for example, Keli Lawson and Shawn Asbury II.
Both Lawson and Asbury II only played about half of their junior seasons due to injury, and now they aren’t going to get to play their senior seasons. Therefore, the recruiting services have very limited information about those guys. They’ve got just 2.5 years of high school information. If they played JV ball as freshmen instead of varsity, then the recruiting services have just 1.5 years of information. Throw in the fact that those guys couldn’t attend any camps this past summer, and I can certainly see why the recruiting services would be hesitant to move those guys up in the rankings.
Asbury, for example, is ranked by 247Sports as the No. 36 player in Virginia. Personally speaking, I’d have Asbury about 20 spots higher. But what new evidence will 247 have to move him up? He hasn’t played any games, or gone to any camps, since the time he was ranked No. 36. And on the other side of things, what evidence does 247 have for the guys above him to indicate that they should be dropped in the rankings?
Some states are playing, though. For example, running back commit Kenji Christian of Alabama already has two games under his belt this season. If he has a good year, he could move up on the national level. Also, there will be more eyes on guys like Christian this season. For prospects in states where football is being played, it’s possible that their offer lists could increase over the next couple of months simply because there will be more information about them than players from states that aren’t playing. An increase in offers could cause a recruit’s ranking to go up, deservedly or not, even if he may not have had that late increase in a normal year.
Once you get past that elite Ohio State/Clemson/Bama/Georgia level, recruiting rankings have to be taken with a grain of salt ever year, and even moreso this year. I don’t think we can fully analyze the situation right now. We’re in the middle of a major historical event, and like all major historical events, we have to gather the evidence over the course of 4-5 years and then draw conclusions later....
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