Last year Khalil Herbert caught the attention of Hokie fans even before he was a transfer target. He ran for 187 yards against a BC team that had just upset Virginia Tech, guiding Kansas to a win many (author included) thought was unlikely. Let’s look at the highlights that got Hokie fans excited (and let’s feel for former BC linebacker Mark Herzlich who has to keep his composure while watching from the booth.)

1. 0:00—Herbert’s gun-left, with the formation strength to the right (which is where a runner in this position would be statistically likely to run just by virtue of crossing the QB on the mesh.) The call is a Split-Zone-style run tweaked with some Zone-Read-style arc flash to the right. Linebacker #14 (redshirt senior Max Richardson) comes up to fill, but over-pursues Herbert’s first probe to the right. It’s not a huge run, but it’s a good one. It’s also our first sign that Richardson’s going to be the pickle this game.
2. 0:13—This starts with old-school slot-I, a Les Miles staple he imported when he took the job at KU. The play is a Power-blocked quick toss, with the FB and QB picking up the end-men. Herbert breaks the line and sees that linebacker #42 has crossed some blockers, and also that there’s nothing but friendly white to the right. All the way down at the thirty-five-yard line, he shows something that’s been missing from Tech’s offense: a downfield juke that turns the good run into a beautiful play.
3. 0:57—From gun-left, 2×2, they run an inside give with Herbert responsible for reading Richardson, who is unblocked. Richardson just barely steps to the left when he follows a feint by Herbert, allowing the RB to show off his burst and power downfield. (A flag called the run back, so his stats could’ve been even wilder.)
4. 1:32—In gun-right with 10 personnel, with Richardson all alone again at mike. It looks like a Zone-Read with a bust at the point-of-attack with the left guard not picking up his man’s pinch on the stunt. Herbert dodges the miss and the right guard combos off to Richardson, allowing another deep run.
5. 2:01—This is another quick-toss Power from the I-formation. Herbert reads the cutback crease and is off.
6. 2:26—The blocking is Split-Zone, with the QB maybe reading a linebacker for give/keep. Watch Herbert move the pile.

It was a great performance, but also a bit of an outlier. BC’s determination to pressure the edges, poor front play, and bad deep fills from the secondary were a big part of Herbert’s success (KU starter Pooka Williams grabbed 121 yards on the day.) PFF gave him an outstanding 95.2 running score for this game, but in the three other games he played before redshirting, he scored a 67.6 against Indiana State, an 82 against Coastal Carolina, and a 63.6 against WVU. I can’t speak for the Indiana State game, but as unprepared as BC was, the Mountaineers were over-girded against the run. WVU had every KU runner hemmed in most of the day. It wasn’t unusual to see several defenders pinching in runners from either shoulder.

Wild swings in performance are pretty common for Herbert, though that says more about the game situations than his skills, with teams sometimes being caught unprepared for the KU scheme (as with BC) and other times living in the backfield (WVU.) In 2018 Herbert was the lead or second back in every game, allowing him to grab 117 carries; his average PFF score for the season was 72.3, with a high of 90.2 against Rutgers and a low of 51.7 against Central Michigan. For comparison, Deshawn McClease, Tech’s primary toter in 2019, had an average run score of 70.6, with his scores more clustered around his average. Since Herbert’s basically replacing McClease, it’s an important comparison, and one I’ll return to.

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