An Analysis Of Virginia Recruiting Rankings And College Production

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Most top 3 in-state recruits, such as David Wilson, go on to have solid-to-great college careers.  After the top 3, the results are mixed.
Most top 3 in-state recruits, such as David Wilson, go on to have solid-to-great college careers. After the top 3, the results are mixed.

(Editor’s note: QCP submitted this article to TSL in late August.  With the football season upon us, we didn’t run it at the time, but decided it would make for great offseason content.  Warning – this article is numbers/data heavy, so prepare yourself accordingly.)

In reading a TSL article a few months ago regarding the lack of success Virginia Tech is having this year with the Top 10 in-state prospects, I began to wonder how concerning that should be and how Top 10 prospects fare in college as compared to prospects outside of the Top 10.

To help answer that question along with others regarding recruiting, I decided to research historical college performance and translate that into ratings similar to the star systems employed by most recruiting services.

Before digging into the data, provided below are some key points concerning the data that is part of the analysis as well as the methodology used to assign player “star ratings”.

Input Data

To develop a standardized rating system, I tried to focus

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