Should Tech offer more 4/5 star players?

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While looking for questions for last week’s Friday Q&A, someone came up with a very good question about committable and non-committable offers.  The question, as well as the answers, were much too big for one answer in a Q&A, so I decided to run it as a regular article.

The poster, Hokie0501, had this to say

“Closing on 4/5 star recruits, and committable offers…

It feels like we are losing out on highly rated recruits at the last minute lately. I was interested in analyzing the capture rate on 4-5 star recruits for other schools and used the Rivals database. For example, in 2014 Tennessee offered 170 4-5 star recruits and captured 11%. Tennessee only took 31 players, so I have to imagine most of these offers were non-committable (Editor’s note: this can never proven, but I’m sure Hokie0501 is correct). It appears VT is doing pretty good on capturing recruits, but is not following the same formula (offering a boatload of non-committable scholarships) as other schools.

So my question is… What are the pros / cons of this approach and is this the only way to compete (i.e. National Title) with top programs?

2014
% (Committed / Offered) School
12% (8 / 66) VT
14% (19 /139) Alabama
9% (8/90) Clemson
10% (13 /126) Florida
16% (12 / 76) Georgia
5% (7 / 138) Ole Miss
11% (18 / 170) Tennessee
7% (4 / 56) UVA

* I used the rivals

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