Voice of the Fan: VT offense by the numbers

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TSL user QCP did some amazing research and put together some very informative numbers about the Virginia Tech offense.  It’s too impressive to be wasted on a simple message board post, so we thought we would make a regular article out of it.

Sorry in advance for the length of the information below.

In this thread, I took away the following perspectives:

• 2013 offense is worse than 2012 in all categories
• 2013 offense is getting worse by the week and gap between 2012 is widening by the week

On the surface, I think it is easy to feel that these are the case but there are a few things that make these perspectives a little less clear upon further review and I would argue that ultimately the output (yards and points) of our 2013 offense is essentially the same, not worse, than our 2012 offense. I’ll leave the debate of how “the same” reflects on Loeffler’s results this year for another thread but below are a few points I thought were worth sharing.

Perspective 1 – 2013 offense is worse than 2012 in all categories:

One of the big differences between last year and this year on offense is the disparity in number of possessions per game. Normally there isn’t a huge variance from year to year but for a number of reasons we are averaging one possession less per game this year vs. last year through 7 games both years (12.1 vs. 13.1). This ends up being a pretty big difference considering the average for Beamer bowl teams is about 30 offensive yards and 2.23 offensive points per possession so any analysis used to compare the offenses should look at output per possession.

Another “measureable” variable that is different from last year to this year is the strength of schedule. In looking at adjusted win % (our opponents’ record outside of their result against us), a case could be made that we have had a tougher schedule this year than compared to last. Through this time last year, our opponents’ adjusted win % was 53% while this year it stands at 62%. To further underscore the difference in schedule from a win % perspective, you could remove Alabama’s adjusted 5-0 record from our schedule this year and our opponents’ combined win % would be 55% which would still be slightly better than last year.

With that said, if we were to remove Alabama from the equation this year to help