All Hokie, All the Time. Period.

The Lounge Board

VaAkita

Joined: 8/24/05 Posts: 7787
Likes: 4760


Great examples of how the future is speeding up


Pretty interesting and a little
bit scary. It is indeed a very
interesting world we live
in.

1.
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85%
of all photo paper worldwide.

Within
just a few years, their business model disappeared
and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries
in the next 5-10 years and, most people won't see it
coming.

Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you
would never take pictures on film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones
only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore 's law. So as
with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment
for a time, before it became way superior and became main
stream in only a few short years. It will now happen again
(but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health, auto-
nomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture
and jobs.

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the
Exponential Age.

2.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the
next 5-10 years.

3. Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars,
and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.

4. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world,
although they don't own any properties.

5.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially
better in understanding the world This year, a computer
beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than
expected.

6. In the US , young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because
of IBM's Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more
or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy
compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
So if you study law, stop immediately.
There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only omniscient specialists will
remain.

6A.
Watson already helps doctors diagnosing cancer and
treatment options, and its 4 times more accurate than
humans only.

7. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that
can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers
will become more intelligent than humans.
(NEVER!/says Albert)

8. Autonomous cars : In 2018 the first self driving cars will
appear
for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be
disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will
call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and
drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you
only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while
driving. The very young children of today will
never get a driver's
license and will never own a car.

8A. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95%
less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces
into parks.

1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.
We now have one accident every 60,000 MI (100,000 km),
with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million
MI (10 million km). That will save a million lives world wide
each year.

8B. Most car companies will doubtless become bankrupt.
Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and
just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple,
Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer
on wheels.

8C. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely
terrified of Tesla.

9. Insurance companies will have massive trouble because,
without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper.
Their car insurance business model will disappear.

10. Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people
will move further away to live in a more beautiful
neighborhood.

11. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020.
Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on
electricity.

12. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar
production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years,
but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

13. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide
than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit
access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar
installations, but that simply cannot continue - technology
will take care of that strategy.

14. With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of
salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@
0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places,
we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be
possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants,
for nearly no cost.

15. Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year.
There are companies who will build a medical device (called
the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone,
which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe
into it.

16. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly
any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this
planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly
for free. Goodbye, self-serving medical practitioners and
establishments.

17. 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came
down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time,
it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have
already started 3D printing shoes.

18. Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in
remote airports. The space station now has a printer that
eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they
used to have in the past.

19. At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D
scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print
your perfect shoe at home.

19A. In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete
6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's
being produced will be 3D printed.

20. Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want
to go in, first ask yourself: "In the future, do I think we will
have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that
happen sooner?

20A. If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.
Any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed
to failure in the 21st century.

20B.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years.
There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there
will be enough new jobs in such a short time. This will require
a rethink on wealth distribution.

21.. Agriculture : There will be a $100 agricultural robot in
the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become
managers of their field instead of working all day on their
fields.

22.
Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish
produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow
produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces
is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space
anymore.

23. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to
the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will
be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people
still reject the idea of eating insects).

24. There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in
which mood you’re in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell
by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political
debate where it's being displayed when they’re telling the truth
and when they’re not - it will ultimately compel all politicians to
be truthful (a truly unique & novel occurrence).

25. # BY 2020 (or sooner - some might suggest this is happening
now)

WHAT A UNIVERSITY STUDENT LEARNS IN THE FIRST
YEAR OF A THREE YEAR DEGREE - WILL BE IRRELEVANT AND REDUNDANT BY THE TIME THE
THIRD YEAR IS COMPLETED!

Posted: 02/13/2018 at 3:12PM



+6

Insert a Link

Enter the title of the link here:


Enter the full web address of the link here -- include the "http://" part:


Current Thread:
 
  
Great examples of how the future is speeding up -- VaAkita 02/13/2018 3:12PM
  Wishful thinking. -- Naelbis 02/13/2018 4:30PM
  ...or dystopian delusion... -- EDGEMAN 02/13/2018 6:08PM
  Well.... -- Beerman 02/13/2018 4:58PM
  We can fight rising sea levels with #14 - -- MP4VT2004 02/13/2018 4:23PM
  Awesome stuff if true! ** -- NokieHokie 02/13/2018 3:54PM
  Awful. Who "likes" this? -- vtbones 02/13/2018 3:46PM

Shop Our TSL Affiliate Links!


Our Sponsors







vm307