That clashes with everything else I had read, which is that he was likely ND bound.

I know we have our insiders (and usually their information is good). But the insiders are usually getting their word from those inside the program who are usually getting their word from the kid. The kid likely was telling ND folks something similar.

Again, the key to keep in mind about the insiders is that they're only going off the word they're hearing which is usually 2nd or 3rd hand and sometimes even further back. They aren't in the mind of the kids. But ND folks were pretty confident here too.