What happens if you combine items 2 and 3 in your list?

Say a 4/16 does come to pass (not tomorrow but with instability in B12 I think it is closer than you do), without a written rule that the CFP includes only conference champs, but over several years that becomes de facto standard and eventually the rule. Likely? maybe not. Possible? definitely - people and investors (read networks) like structure and stability.

Is ND "in" as the 4/16 are being formed, when they have a lot of leverage? If not, when do they get in? Gonna throw someone out? Go to 18? Other conferences will not add one or two bottom feeders after the fact for one conference to get ND. Does ND become Ivy league type - and lose the $$$ that comes with big time football?

If they wait, they won't have the same leverage they have now - "we'll just join when we absolutely have to, to have a chance at the playoff" - very definition of not having leverage - and the other side will know it- regardless of which conference it is.

This is the reason for speculation and is what some ND fans just don't get ("it's impossible for us not to have leverage?!") - much like fans of other teams just don't get why ND wants independence.

Of course this is a sole ND decision, but IMHO I think the stakes are a lot higher than a lot of ND fans realize, or want to admit.