Should be a good race with 5 teams having a legitimate shot at winning. Based upon the seedings (with a few adjustments for athletes with no posted times/distances) the team scores work out to be:
Syracuse 81, Clemson 77, VT 75, UVa 69, NCState 68. There is a big gap down to FSU at 43, followed by UNC at 30 and Pitt at 29 and everybody else.
One event has now been completed and we lost 2 expected points in the weight throw. Our hopes are largely dependent upon Curtin in the 2 distance runs (chance to win both even though seeded 2nd and 3rd; wins in both would yield a net change of 10 points versus Syracuse), killing the pole vault as expected (28 projected points), Zeigler having a big day in the LJ and TJ and matching our #2 seed in the distance medley relay.
Clemson is huge in the 3 sprints (60, 200, 400) where they are expected to total 46 points. Syracuse should score big in the 3 distance runs (mile, 3K, 5K) with 51 projected points. NC State is best in the sprints (27 points) and any gains should be at Clemson's expense. UVa's strength is the shot put (18 expected points) but they also have strength in the distance runs, distance relay and heptathlon.
The 800 might prove pivotal. We have Gourley running for us and he has no seed time. Even though he ran a sub-4:00 minute mile, he is not entered in that event even though he would be seeded. I am (totally) guessing that the coaches are expecting more of an impact in the 800. That could up our score.
We also have some athletes who are just beyond the top 8 seeds (scoring is 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1). We have the #9 sprinter in the 60 (Watkins) and the #11 and #12 sprinters in the 200 (Watkins and Price). A point here or there could be the difference.
The most surprising aspect of this year is the fall-off by FSU. They, along with us, have dominated the ACC in recent years. In the past 7 years FSU has won 4 times and finished second the other 3 times (VT won these 3). Unless they have something up their sleeve, they will not compete for the team title.