You forget that of the 103-105K fans in Neyland every game, as many as 8-10K are visiting fans. So you're "down" to about 95K fans. Then you have to take into account students who go to games aren't as likely to drive an hour and a half. Not sure how many students are at games, but I'd guess probably about 10-12K normally. You could probably cut that number in half for Bristol. You're at 90K.

Tennessee also has a number of alums in Nashville. Normally those alum would only have a 2 hour drive to games, but those alums would instead have to drive 4 hours. Some of those alums are going to hold off for serious football (ie: SEC football) in Neyland. You could say something similar to alums in Memphis.