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jmanatVT

Joined: 01/17/2008 Posts: 6583
Likes: 1850


What you are missing is thatt they spread at different rates and will not


respond to different protocols the same way.

For rates, if a virus has a rate of transmission above 1, it spreads, below 1, it reduces to nothing. So take 2 viruses' rate of transmission where you do nothing special. Virus 1 has a rate of transmission of 1.1 and Virus 2 has a rate of transmission of 1.8. If you institute behaviors, like spending less time in public, wearing masks, whatever, which reduces the rate of transmission by 10%, virus 1 dips below 1, virus 2 remains above 1. That's not only reasonable, it's conservative; it's pretty obvious that social distancing is effective, the fewer people you are around the fewer chances you have of being exposed. This article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1093_article suggests modest social distancing measures could have impacts of 25%. Even intuitively, if 5% of people are contagious, if you see one person, your odds of being exposed are 5%, if you come into contact with 10 people your odds of being exposed are ~40%.

Then, factor in that not all measures will have the same impact on various viruses. Perhaps masks are more effective for the flu than covid. Perhaps social distancing is more effective for one versus the other because of the time a virus remains in the air or on a surface or how quickly it transmits. Perhaps ventilation improvements are more effective on one versus the other.

So, I absolutely could tell you that "the flu didn't spread because people were wearing masks and social distancing and then tell me that COVID spread because people weren't wearing masks and weren't social distancing."

(In response to this post by vt90)

Posted: 07/21/2021 at 5:26PM



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