Fresh off a very satisfying 4-1 win over Notre Dame, the #20 Virginia Tech Hokies (33-12) will take on the #10/#13 Clemson Tigers (41-5) in an ACC semifinal matchup Friday. Game time is 1:00 pm and the game will be broadcast on the ACC Network.

The Tigers, who won the ACC regular season championship with a conference record of 29-5, advanced to the semifinals with a 2-0 win Thursday over Georgia Tech. Valerie Cagle, the ACC Freshman of the Year and Player of the Year, threw a one-hit shutout in that game.

The Hokies and the Tigers met on February 18-19 this season as part of the ACC’s Pod Play, with the Hokies winning 2 out of the 3 games. In spite of the ACC Network not noticing, that’s 40% of the Tigers’ losses on the year.

In the first game of that series, the Tigers beat the Hokies 8-1, when an errant VT throw led to 5 unearned Clemson runs. Cagle scattered 7 hits as the Hokies left 7 baserunners. My impression is that the loss did not set well with Coach D’Amour and the Hokies and I believe they stewed on it overnight and came out with something to prove on Friday.

On Friday, Ivy Rosenberry pitched a 3-hit, 5 innings shutout, as the Hokies blasted the Tigers 9-0 in the first game of a doubleheader. Cagle lasted only to the 3rd inning as the Hokies scored 6 earned runs off of her, highlighted by a Jayme Bailey 3 run homer.

In the second game of the day, Keely Rochard pitched a 3 hitter, giving up only a single earned run as the Hokies won the rubber game of the series by a 4-1 score.

Comparing aces in that single series, Rochard has thrown 11 innings versus Clemson, giving up 9 hits and only 2 earned runs, striking out 8. Cagle has thrown 9 innings versus VT, giving up 13 hits and 6 earned runs, striking out 7.

For the season, Rochard has an ERA of 1.08 with 295 Ks in 201 innings
For the season, Cagle has an ERA of 1.11 with 227 Ks in 183.2 innings

Statistically, as shown by the Tale of the Tape below, Clemson has a slight edge over the Hokies in batting average (.303 to .295), ERA (1.53 to 1.71) and fielding percentage (.974 to .966), a combination that would seem to add up to a significant advantage tomorrow for the Tigers. And it may.

HOWEVER… the one equalizer might be the strength of schedule component as both Massey (19 to 62) and the NCAA RPI (24 to 101) believe that the Hokies have played significantly stronger competition. And when one considers that the Tigers play a total of 8 total games against Elon, Furman, and Winthrop and outscored them by a total of 57-3, you wonder if the statistical disparity is as great as it seems.

Bottom line, on Friday, statistics don’t matter and past performance doesn’t matter. A spot in the ACC Championship game is on the line.

As Keely said in her postgame remarks today; “Clemson is a good team and we’re a good team. We’re just going to do what we’ve been doing and I’m going to trust my pitches and trust my defense and see what happens.”

I like it. You go, girl.

Let’s Go Hokies!

The Tale of the Tape is Below.