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Joined: 08/14/1998 Posts: 15797
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Part of why it's approximation

...is that counting asymptomatic cases is a bit of guesswork. But they can make educated guesses by looking at populations of randomly tested individuals and seeing how many of them are asymptomatic. Not volunteers tested ... that's not properly random. They do things like give tests to people who enter a hospital for non-COVID reasons. Pregnant women, for example, who are entirely healthy and just checking in to give birth, present a decently random set of data. Or they administer COVID tests to large random samples of people who were selected for other non-COVID studies.

But yeah, it's somewhat of a guess. If you compare fatalities only to positive tests, you're going to get a higher fatality rate. In Virginia there have been 2,317 deaths on 97,882 confirmed cases. That's 2.4%, but doesn't include anyone who's never received a test. The nationwide rate is 3.3% but again doesn't include wide swaths of asymptomatic people who haven't been tested. 0.5% (or maybe it's 0.6 or 0.4) is an estimate based on how many asymptomaic folks you think there are.

(In response to this post by Colonel Jessup)

Posted: 08/07/2020 at 5:16PM

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Part of why it's approximation -- Beerman 08/07/2020 5:16PM

I did not know they have done random tests -- Colonel Jessup 08/07/2020 5:21PM

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Part of why it's approximation

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