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lilhokie525

Joined: 06/13/2007 Posts: 287
Likes: 202


What no one (that I have heard) has stated is the overall change in


the death rate. We do not live forever. Given typical life expectancy, we can probably expect to lose 1.25%/year to all causes of death. With COVID-19 having impacted the data for 3.5 months, we could probably expect about a 0.4% death rate from all causes during that time period if COVID-19 had had no effect. With COVID-19 deaths measured at 0.04%, it is not clear how the 0.04% has affected the expected 0.4% overall death rate. Is it strictly an adder (no one whose death was linked to COVID-19 would have died from something else had it not been for COVID-19)? I doubt that is the case. I would expect the COVID-19 precautions to have reduced the death rate from flu, other communicable deseases and automobile accidents. That reduction may have been enough to keep the overall death rate relatively constant. We also need to consider that those COVID-19 precautions may have increased the death rate for causes such as suicide and substance abuse. Bottom line is that we are probably measuring the wrong thing.

(In response to this post by WhoopACC Hokie)

Posted: 06/29/2020 at 12:51PM



+0

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