What I am reading is that the the budget issues (beyond the immediate impacts of Covid) and long term costs are being driven by the stipends on top of scholarships, not the scholarships themselves. Instead of the step down in scholarships that you indicate, I would envision a top tier with 85 scholarship & stipends, a second tier with 85 scholarships but no or reduced stipends, and then a continued reduction of scholarships that you see now for different divisions. Instead of everyone downgrading scholarships, there will be the pro-stipend universities leaving to move up. I imagine that except for the Big 10+ and the SEC (making so much they can't afford not to pay stipends unless a Vandy or Northwestern sees otherwise), the ACC, PAC and Big 12+ will all have some schools opting to play down - continuing with an old school model. Remember that stipends are allowed but not required. If 50% of the current Division I goes with the old school model, they are not restricting the players since they always have the option to go play for a stipend - if they are good enough.

Listening the Notre Dame fans, they may consider this option. I could also see some of the private schools in the ACC jumping. I would anticipate that Virginia Tech would be on the fence and would be very deliberate while waiting to see how our fellow ACC members fall out.