All Hokie, All the Time. Period.

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jmanatVT

Joined: 1/17/08 Posts: 5600
Likes: 1204


The thing is that what people get wrong isn't the shape of the


curve. Every expert models with a logistic curve of some sort, Levitt isn't special there. Gompertz is a logistic curve. Even the smallest mathematical minds know intuitively that it isn't indefinite exponential growth; you can't buy into the idea of herd immunity and think it's exponential. What the average Joe has gotten wrong is describing the curve they envision as exponential.

The real uncertainty is where the inflection point is (the maxima on his red lines of new cases) or the asymptote (the value the total number of cases, his black lines, do not climb above). His first video touches on how "limited" exponential growth isn't as scary. It depends! If the limit on deaths is the entire population, it isn't any scarier, it's just a better model!

That's where the disagreement is, what are the limits, not which curve it is.

To bring it back to this context. It isn't surprising to anyone that it's up and then down, what's surprising is that it was 6 weeks to the inflection point/peak of new cases per day and that the asymptote is far lower than what many predicted.

(In response to this post by HokieHutch)

Posted: 05/29/2020 at 12:53PM



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Current Thread:
 
  
For you covid data folks -- GreenvilleVT 05/29/2020 08:38AM
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  I think New York and California are in trouble. -- MP4VT2004 05/29/2020 09:04AM
  Not sure they want to open -- EDGEMAN 05/29/2020 09:55AM
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  I would want to be the last man standing. ** -- GreenvilleVT 05/29/2020 10:13AM
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  Sounds sustainable. -- MP4VT2004 05/29/2020 09:29AM
  Excellent web site with lots of ways to look at data. ** -- Will Stewart  05/29/2020 08:59AM

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