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jmanatVT

Joined: 1/17/08 Posts: 5690
Likes: 1248


I'm not saying it's herd immunity, just that it looks like herd immunity


I think it has to be something else, maybe one of those 3 things I hypothesized.

The reason I say it looks like herd immunity is that what GreenevilleVT describes 6 weeks to peak and 6 weeks to minimal new cases describes what we expect. That is the derivative of a logistic curve. The reason total cases is modeled with a logistic curve is that at some point (inflection point and peak of derivative) the odds of infecting someone start going down and at another point there's no one new to infect, so there must be an asymptote (a maximum value in total cases) somewhere. With Herd Immunity, the asymptote is some majority of the population (what are they saying now? 70%?) where the virus dies out because no contagious person is near a person who can be infected. Of course, the odds of transmission can be changed by changing behavior not just by the number of people who have already had it.

For some reason, if we stay near "minimal new cases" we are at that asymptote. Is the peak of the derivative a local or global maxima? Why are we there earlier than we anticipated?

(In response to this post by AbsolutVT03)

Posted: 05/29/2020 at 10:37AM



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Current Thread:
 
  
For you covid data folks -- GreenvilleVT 05/29/2020 08:38AM
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  I think New York and California are in trouble. -- MP4VT2004 05/29/2020 09:04AM
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  Sounds sustainable. -- MP4VT2004 05/29/2020 09:29AM
  Excellent web site with lots of ways to look at data. ** -- Will Stewart  05/29/2020 08:59AM

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