Willful blindness
Your prediction that "...we have reached the end of continuously rising rights fees" may be a psychological defense mechanism. You are comfortable with the way things are and can't imagine that anything could or would come along and upset the applecart.
Sorry, '86, the rights fees are going to skyrocket and realignment is going to blow up bigger than the last round. Too many ACC and Big 12 observers reside in "football present" and have an aversion to looking at "football future." Early reports on the SEC Tier 1 negotiations have the per-team payout at or above $70 million. B1G will likely match or exceed that.
Texas and Oklahoma may or may not like their association with the B1g 12, but those administrators would be irresponsible to walk away from a realignment that could deliver an additional $25-30 million in athletic revenue. The Big 12 leftovers will not continue to get P5 contracts. That's the ESPN cost-cutting you were talking about.
Less certain is the outcome of the PAC 12 media situation. SoCal's AD, Mike Bohn has announced that if the next media deal doesn't get within close range of the SEC/B1G, he intends to withdraw from the conference. Is he just shootin' off his mouth? I don't think he is. He wouldn't make that threat without having made contact with alternative conferences (SEC/B1G). I think that at least four schools and possibly seven or eight schools withdraw and seek a bigger payday by joining an eastern conference (probably the B1G). My gut feeling is USC, Stanford, Arizona, and Colorado. Perhaps ASU in place of Colorado. B1G teams and fans would welcome the warm weather destinations.
The ACC has the GoR and ESPN contract in-place until 2037. I don't think it will get that far. The revenue gap will becone a revenue gulf. Something's gotta give.
ACC folks continue to live in the present, but the future may come knocking around 2024.
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In response to this post by VT ChemE 1986)
Posted: 04/09/2020 at 1:22PM