Yes, the data isn’t complete. Not even close. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t sufficient data to draw some basic conclusions.

There is enough global and US data from this exposure as well as others exposures to ascertain that the death rates will go down exponentially when we confirm the number of people who are actually positive RIGHT NOW is many times greater than we know.

Short of an unforeseen cataclysmic event, there is simply no way the death rate per thousand doesn’t end up a fraction of what it is right now. The media and thus public (like yours) reaction to this outbreak has been utterly disproportionate and illogical and thus the political and bureaucratic response has been an utterly misguided one size fits all - resulting in a largely unnecessary global economic contraction with both near term and long term health consequences which could very easily surpass the consequences of the current crisis.

For example, it makes no sense that universities - many with large numbers of international students, particularly Asian who may have traveled to China over the Xmas holiday or spring break - were closing and dispersing a sizable portion of asymptomatic, but quite possibly infected, very young adults (who by and large will be only moderately affected) across the country to 1) socialize initially with other young people in large groups and 2) socialize with family members from higher risk groups. So instead of creating an ideal environment for herd immunity, the exact opposite occurred.

It makes no sense that small towns in Buttscratch are shutting down businesses, yet someone could - and can still - get on a plane in Seattle or NY and fly to Buttscratch without any review.