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Conference Realignment Board

33laszlo99

Joined: 02/21/2013 Posts: 493
Likes: 219


BIG 12 IS LIKELY FINISHED


The Big 12 will almost certainly break up when their current GoR runs out. The only chance they have for survival is if both Oklahoma and Texas express interest in joining the B1G. ESPN might want to intervene by throwing a lifeline to the entire conference. This would be the same type of preemptive move they made when they created the LHN. Apart from that unlikely situation, the schools that don't realign will be reduced to G5 level media contracts. ESPN has made it clear that they will not allow any more G5's to be promoted to P5 pay. This is their first opportunity to actually reduce the number of P5 earners. The schools involved are not essential to ESPN's national advertising footprint.
ESPN has been systematically bolstering their ad footprint, first with the acquisition of the Fox regional networks, and more recently with the Ivy League rights. The B1G, on the other hand, has just lost a significant element of their BTN footprint. The B1G needs Texas. Oklahoma/Kansas is always seen as the likely move. That seems neat and natural, but if the B1G can't get Texas, they are leaving a huge chunk of money on the table. Their next rights negotiation will occur around the time of the expiry of the Big 12 GoR. Having OK and KS included in the bargain will be substantial. But if they have Texas as well, the pay will be astronomical. ESPN would need to find a way to counter. How much would they be willing to increase the LHN payout. And would the amount be big enough to make Texas want to remain in a Big 12? that does not include Oklahoma and Kansas? Could ESPN persuade Texas to follow A&M to the SEC?
The timing of the B1G media rights negotiation is no coincidence. The financial incentives for the premier programs in Big 12 will be irresistable. They know that the current rights deal was based on a much more appealing roster of schools. The next one will be rated for ten programs, only, and will include fewer states (but hey, WV). What remains of the Big 12 will not necessarily fall to MAC level money, but the days of P5 paychecks will end for some very worthy programs.

(In response to this post by SoCloseHokie)

Posted: 04/16/2018 at 1:35PM



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Current Thread:
 
  
From Nebraska poster below(pardon for new thread) -- SoCloseHokie 04/15/2018 09:50AM
  Key is financial situation of pac 12 schools -- Mercury 04/19/2018 10:44AM
  I don't see a "Texas" network being successful. -- Wolfman 04/18/2018 12:17PM
  In any b12 shutdown scenario Iowa State is done -- Vienna_Hokie 04/18/2018 09:04AM
  No market — -- Mercury 04/19/2018 10:46AM
  BIG 12 IS LIKELY FINISHED -- 33laszlo99 04/16/2018 1:35PM
  Just don't see it. -- EDGEMAN 04/17/2018 12:34PM
  Hmm -- reestuart 04/19/2018 08:29AM
  Yep do think pac 12 instability is in play -- Mercury 04/17/2018 08:14AM
  UR being overdramatic and don't understand the Texas ego ** -- nebraskafaninwi 04/16/2018 3:24PM
  Time goes by... -- 33laszlo99 04/17/2018 11:46AM
  Texas like ND think they can..., -- SoCloseHokie 04/15/2018 12:18PM
  They will be able, until they can’t... -- EDGEMAN 04/15/2018 6:39PM

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