- Virginia Tech at No. 7 Miami: Friday, Sept. 27, at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
- Betting line: Miami -19.5
- Roster cards: Click here
- Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
- Miami Gardens weather: Click here
Coming off a tough loss to Rutgers, Virginia Tech (2-2) faces arguably its biggest challenge of the season on Friday night in the form of a road trip to No. 7 Miami (4-0). The Hurricanes are off to a perfect start, and despite last year’s disappointing results, they’ve got a Heisman Trophy contender at quarterback and have legitimate expectations of making the College Football Playoff.
The Hokies also had similar expectations back in August, with Brent Pry saying in Charlotte this summer that anything less than a trip to the ACC championship game would be a disappointment. On paper, Tech can still reach that goal, but it will have to play much better than it has in the first month of the season.
After going 35-13 at Oregon, Miami head coach Mario Cristobal struggled in his first two years back in his hometown:
- 2022: 5-7 (3-5 ACC)
- 2023: 7-6 (3-5 ACC)
He reloaded in the offseason, bringing in the best transfer portal quarterback that he could find, and the results have been a lot different so far. The Hurricanes are 4-0 and have four dominant wins. They haven’t scored fewer than 41 points, nor have they allowed more than 17. The competition hasn’t been good (Florida, Florida A&M, Ball State and USF), but Miami is taking care of business in a way that it hasn’t done in a long time.
Meanwhile, the Hokies have struggled to play four-quarter football games, even against the likes of Marshall (No. 97 in the F+ ratings) and ODU (No. 108) while also losing to Vanderbilt (No. 73) and Rutgers (No. 55). Brent Pry is 2-13 in his career against teams in the top 75 of the Massey Ratings. Friday night’s game looks like a longshot for the visitors.
The Miami Coordinators
Since the hot topic for Virginia Tech has been coordinators recently, let’s take a look at the guys Tyler Bowen and Chris Marve will be going head-to-head with on Friday.
Offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson: 47 years old, college coach since 2002. Former offensive coordinator at Houston, Southern Miss, Kentucky, West Virginia, Stephen F. Austin and Millsaps. Overall, he has 14 years of experience as an OC.
Defensive coordinator Lance Guidry: 53 years old, college coach since 2000. Former defensive coordinator at Marshall, Southeastern Louisiana, McNeese State and Western Kentucky. He never had a Power 5 job until Miami hired him, but he was the architect of Marshall’s outstanding 2022 defense (No. 8 in the nation in total defense), and that unit hasn’t been the same since he left.
The New Miami Quarterback, And The Hurricane Passing Game
If Miami was going to truly be “back” this year, it would need good quarterback play. Cristobal knew that, so he went out and signed Cam Ward (6-2, 223, Sr.), a two-time transfer who has put up big numbers wherever he has been. Lightly recruited out of high school, he originally signed with Incarnate Word. After playing well there, he hit the portal after the 2021 season, and he was my No. 1 transfer portal target for Virginia Tech. He never showed any interest in the Hokies, though, and ended up at Washington State, where he put up great numbers.
Here’s what his FBS career looks like between two years at Washington State and four games at Miami:
This Content is Presented by The Hokie Way
At The Hokie Way, we work to support Virginia Tech, our Student-Athletes, and our community. Together, we create a win for us all! Learn more about our mission and how to get involved. thehokieway.org- WSU: 643-of-982 (65.5%) for 6,968 yards, 48 TDs, 16 INTs
- Miami: 89-of-123 (72.4%) for 1,439 yards, 14 TDs, 2 INTs
- Total: 732-of-1,105 (66.2%) for 8,407 yards, 62 TDs, 18 INTs
Ward is as good a natural passer as there is in college football. He’s currently second nationally in passing yards and passing yards per game, as well as No. 5 in quarterback rating. He’s the best quarterback the Hokies will face this season, and he’s a legit Heisman Trophy candidate.
Ward’s abilities make for some happy Miami receivers, with six Hurricanes already over the 100-yard mark for the season in just four games. There are plenty of other options after that, too. A total of 16 Miami players have caught passes this year. To save time, I’m just going to list a few.
WR Xavier Restrepo (5-11, 198, r-Sr.): A prolific receiver who caught 85 passes a year ago, which is a Miami record. He’s already got 20 catches for 362 yards and five touchdowns this year. He spends nearly all of his time in the slot, which means he’ll be a matchup nightmare for Virginia Tech’s safeties. We haven’t seen much nickel package, if any, this season. This is probably the game to break it out.
WR Isaiah Horton (6-4, 205, r-So.): Horton got his feet wet as a redshirt freshman last year and is on his way to a good 2024. He has 19 catches for 298 yards and a touchdown.
WR Sam Brown Jr. (6-2, 195, r-Jr.): He caught 62 passes for Houston a year ago and is picking up where he left off this season at Miami. He has 14 catches for 173 yards and a touchdown.
WR Jacolby George (6-0, 176, Sr.): George was a Third Team All-ACC player last year with 57 catches for 864 yards. He has 12 receptions for 172 yards and two touchdowns this season.
TE Elijah Arroyo (6-4, 245, r-Jr.): Let’s not forget about the tight end. Arroyo has 184 receiving yards on nine catches, averaging over 20 yards per reception. He’s also hauled in two touchdowns.
Ward has a lot of good targets. The Virginia Tech secondary and linebackers will be challenged more in this game than any other all season.
The Miami Running Backs
When Miami isn’t throwing it to NFL guys with an NFL quarterback, it’s handing it to a future NFL back. Damien Martinez (6-0, 232, Jr.) is a transfer from Oregon State, where he was a First Team All-Pac 12 performer each of the last two seasons. He was a semifinalist for the Doak Walker Award in 2023. He had over 2,100 rushing yards in two seasons on the West Coast while averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
Martinez only has 14 carries over the last two weeks. I’m not sure if he’s banged up or if his carries are just being limited because Miami is blowing everybody out. If it’s the latter, then he’ll certainly be fresh for Virginia Tech on Friday.
Three other Hurricane backs have gotten carries in the four blowout wins:
Jordan Lyle (6-0, 190, Fr.): The highly-touted true freshman from Fort Lauderdale has 29 carries for 233 yards, which includes a 91-yarder against South Florida this past weekend.
Mark Fletcher Jr. (6-2, 225, So.): 21 carries, 121 yards, 5.7 ypc, 3 TDs
Ajay Allen (5-11, 186, r-So.): 17 carries, 143 yards, 8.4 ypc, 1 TD
Now that the ‘Canes are starting ACC play, I’m not sure how many of their backs will get regular carries, but if he’s healthy, I would expect Martinez to be the primary ball-carrier against Virginia Tech.
Those guys will be running behind an offensive line that only features one transfer starter. Miami has three veteran starters on the offensive line, the most experienced of which is center Zach Carpenter, an Indiana transfer. The Hurricanes have also shown a tendency to rotate a lot of linemen in the first four games, though some of that is due to the fact that none of their games have been close.
The Miami Offense, Inside the Numbers
Here are the traditional numbers for the Miami offense:
Rushing: No. 32
YPC: No. 17
Passing: No. 2
YPA: No. 4
QB Rating: No. 2
Total: No. 2
YPP: No. 2
Yes, they haven’t played anyone, but so far the ‘Canes are just about as good as it gets from the standpoint of traditional stats. What about the advanced numbers?
FEI Offense: No. 10
OF+: No. 8
Available Yards: No. 2
No matter how you choose to break down this offense, it will very likely be the best Virginia Tech faces this season.
A Miami Defense That Plays In The Backfield
Through the first four games of the season, the Miami defense has found itself in the opposition’s backfield quite a bit:
- TFLs: 34, No. 5 nationally
- Sacks: 16, No. 1 nationally
Here are a couple of guys to keep an eye on:
DE Tyler Baron (6-5, 260, r-Sr.): The transfer from Tennessee already has 7.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks this season. He’s the brother of former Hokie defensive lineman Woody Baron (2013-2016).
DT Simeon Barrow Jr. (6-3, 290, r-Sr.): The transfer from Michigan State started 30 games for the Spartans before making the move to Miami. He’s very good against the run and already has 2.5 sacks this season as well.
LB Francisco Mauigoa (6-3, 230, Sr.): Another Washington State transfer, he was a Second Team All-ACC performer last season.
In short, Miami has a lot of good players up front, and they’ll come after you in waves.
The Miami Secondary
Miami isn’t quite as experienced in the secondary, though it does have a few guys with a lot of snaps. Four cornerbacks have played significant snaps this year, indicating the ‘Canes might not be as settled at that position.
S Mishael Powell (6-1, 210, Sr.). The Washington transfer has had a very nice career and is probably Miami’s most dependable safety. Fellow safety Jaden Harris (6-0, 195, r-So.) lacks experience, though he’s shown a knack for playmaking in his short stint on the field.
CB OJ Frederique (6-0, 180, Fr.): The true freshman has started two games for Miami already this season. He was not a highly-touted recruit, being ranked outside the top 900 by the 247Sports composite. Nevertheless, he’s getting on the field a lot for the Hurricanes. Perhaps Tech’s veteran receivers can take advantage of him in his first true challenge.
CB D’Yoni Hill (6-0, 172, Jr.): The Marshall transfer has started three games for Miami and opponents have completed four of their 11 passes against him for 42 yards. He played 12 snaps against Tech last year as part of the Thundering Herd.
CB Jadais Richard (6-1, 195, Jr.): The Vanderbilt transfer has always been a steady player, but has never been a full-time starter.
CB Daryl Porter Jr. (5-11, 185, r-Sr.): Porter is a returning starter who played very well last season. He previously transferred from West Virginia.
I consider the Miami secondary to be a little big more susceptible than the front seven, but the Tech passing game has pretty much been non-existent for the last three weeks.
The Miami Defense, Inside the Numbers
Here are the key traditional rankings for the Hurricanes’ defense:
Rushing: No. 6
YPC: No. 9
Passing: No. 35
YPA: No. 23
QB Rating: No. 12
Total: No. 10
YPP: No. 12
TFL: No. 5
Sacks: No. 1
Here’s what the unit looks like in some advanced numbers:
FEI Defense: No. 20
DF+: No. 16
Available Yards: No. 38
The advanced numbers suggest this Miami defense isn’t quite as good as the traditional numbers, but it’s still the best defense the Hokies have faced to date.
Miami Special Teams
Chris Johnson Jr. (6-0, 180, r-Fr.) has averaged 27.8 yards on four kickoff returns this year, and fellow running back Jordan Lyle also has a return for 25 yards. Miami hasn’t given up many scores this year, which means its kickoff return chances have been limited, though it has talent back there.
Ray Ray Joseph (5-10, 175, So.) is currently serving as Miami’s punt returner. He has more experience as a kickoff returner. So far, he’s averaging 9.1 yards per return. He hasn’t broken one yet, but you sense that he’s more than capable of doing so.
Kicker Andres Borregales was a First Team All-ACC kicker last season and a semifinalist for the Lou Groza Award. He has converted 83.6% of his field goals in his career and was 22-of-26 last season.
Punter Dylan Joyce started last season as a true freshman and was an Honorable Mention All-ACC performer. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but he’s the latest of many Australian punters who are invading college football.
Virginia Tech-Miami Prediction Poll
Before our staff makes their picks, tell us what you think will happen Friday.
Loading ...Virginia Tech-Final Thoughts
The Hurricanes have consistently underachieved in recent years and are always prone to drop a game or two each year that they shouldn’t. It’s also true that a 2-2 Virginia Tech team that seemed dead in the water in 2019 went down to Miami, got up 28-0 and held on to win.
That doesn’t seem likely this time around, though. Miami has its best quarterback in a long time and their players know it. They should be all sorts of confident on Friday night. Sometimes too much confidence can be a bad thing, of course. If the Hokies had actually played decent football this year, I could see them taking advantage.
Virginia Tech doesn’t look good at all, though. Even the ODU game could have been dicey with a couple of different bounces. That Kyron Drones fumble bounced off the turf back up into his hands, which might’ve been different on a grass field. Likewise, the fumble on the punt return could have just as easily bounced ODU’s way. That could have been two short fields for the Monarchs.
Tech has done some good things at times, but it’ll have to start doing them a lot more often to have a chance in this game. Even if the Hokies do happen to play their best game of the year, it’s hard to see them winning this one. My main hope is that it is somewhat competitive, the team shows signs of life and can get healthy going into Stanford. For some odd reason, I feel like Tech is going to be the first team to hold Miami under 40 this year, though not by much.
Chris’s Prediction: Miami 38, Virginia Tech 13
Will Stewart (Founder): Virginia Tech has sputtered and stalled against some mediocre competition so far, and on Friday, the opponent is going to level up. Virginia Tech’s going to get creamed, right?
Well, yes and no. For some reason, even after reading Chris’s preview, I don’t think the Hokies are going to lose by a score like 56-7. Since joining the Big East back in 1993, Virginia Tech’s largest margin of defeat at Miami has been 21 points (a 24-3 defeat in 1994, 30 years ago). That covers some really good Miami teams and some not-so-good Virginia Tech teams.
If the ‘Canes do completely roll the Hokies, it’ll say something about Miami, something about Virginia Tech, or something about both teams. It will be unprecedented in the rivalry (in Miami, at least; the ‘Canes beat VT 30-6 in Blacksburg in 2014 and 38-14 in 2018).
I think Miami is going to win easily, but I also think it’ll get a little lazy and sloppy, enough to keep it reasonable. The ‘Canes will get out to an early lead, then coast and suffer lapses of concentration as they dream about getting out of Hard Rock Stadium and hitting the clubs.
Weather could throw this all out of whack, but as of Tuesday night, Weather.com says, “Partly cloudy skies. Low near 80F. Winds SSW at 10 to 15 mph, 24% chance of rain.” There doesn’t appear to be anything outrageous in the forecast.
Will’s Prediction: Miami 42, Virginia Tech 24
David Cunningham (Managing Editor): This one is pretty easy to pick. Virginia Tech hasn’t played a full 60 minutes of football this year, let alone a good first half. Meanwhile, Miami is on a heater. I don’t expect the Hokies to get shutout or blown out, though. They’ll probably get going after halftime, but by then it’ll be too late.
Weather might play a slight factor — how could it not rain in South Florida — but I expect the Hokies to have some juice. They haven’t played like a good football team this year, but they have some talent, and the Hurricanes completely shutting them down seems highly unlikely — especially a guy like Bhayshul Tuten. If Tech struggles, it feels like it’ll be more of a self-induced thing.
The Hokies winning outright is all but completely out of the question, in part because of the struggles and also because the program is 3-28 all-time against top-10 foes. Still, I really like Tech to cover in this one, despite the recent performances. Here are four betting stats for you:
- It’s the eighth time since 1987 VT is a double-digit underdog against Miami. It’s 1-6 straight up — it won 42-35 on the road in 2019 — but 4-2-1 against the spread.
- VT has been a 17-point underdog or more against Miami on three occasions and is 2-0-1 against the spread in those contests with three outright defeats.
- VT is 1-4 straight up as a double-digit underdog under Brent Pry — the win was at Liberty in 2022 — but is 3-2 against the spread and has covered in two of the last three.
- Since 1987, VT has been a double-digit underdog on 11 occasions. It’s lost all 11 of those games but is 7-3-1 against the spread.
The facts (or at least the ones I found) say the Hokies should cover, so I’ll take them +19.5 here.
David’s Prediction: Miami 39, Virginia Tech 21
Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): Don’t get me wrong, I don’t like the Hokies in this one. I just think that line is a pretty big one to cover, especially if there’s a chance that the weather might not be so great. Plus, this feels like a kitchen sink game for the Hokies. Not to get too dramatic, but your season is on the line with this game. Your pride’s at stake, too, with a 2-3 start on the horizon if you can’t muster up a competitive effort.
That said, this team doesn’t feel like it’s in a position to challenge in this one. The offense has plenty of issues. The defense hasn’t faced an offense of this caliber. Special teams hasn’t avoided the week-to-week gaffe that gives up points. And Pry’s in-game coaching acumen might not be any better than even Cristobal’s. Miami’s due for a come-back-to-earth game because … [points frantically to two decades of examples], but I don’t think the Hokies are the team to make it happen.
Andy’s Prediction: Miami 34, Virginia Tech 20
Nick Brown (Director of Media): In 2019, I was working my high school weekend job at the local frozen yogurt shop, The Frosty Parrot. I brought my laptop to work to watch the Virginia Tech vs. Miami game while serving customers. I had little faith in the Hokies, who entered the game with a 2-2 record after getting blasted by Duke at home. We know how that turned out: Hendon Hooker went ballistic, and the Hokies enjoyed a strong run up until the UVa game.
As we approach Friday’s matchup, my feelings are even more negative. The only glimmers of hope are Miami’s history of stumbling since 2001 and no matter the score or how much time is left, you can always beat Mario Cristobal.
Please watch again to make yourself laugh…
Nick’s Prediction: Miami 38, Virginia Tech 24
 | | | | |  |
|
| | | | | |
|
| | | | | |
|
 | | | | | |
|
 | | | | | |
|
| | | | | |
|
| | | | |  |
|
| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Hokies Win by 11+ (73%) |  | Vanderbilt 34, Hokies 27 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (50%) |  | Hokies 31, Marshall 14 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (63%) | | Hokies 37, ODU 17 | |
| Rutgers Wins by 1-10 (39%) | | Rutgers 26, Hokies 23 | |
| Miami Wins by 11+ (84%) | | Miami 38, Hokies 34 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (48%) | | Hokies 31, Stanford 7 | |
Print
At this point I’m happy if we are a .500 team by years end and I hope we still beat the hoos. Go Hokies
If there is one team VT can get up for it’s Miami. Do I think we will win, no, but anything can happen!!
The one thing that really stands out to me is the tenure and success of their OC/DC compared to ours. If you are serious about winning you gotta hire great coaches with experience.
So for the prediction, we need a fifth choice, will the game be played.
So sad in year 3 of Pry, we have next to no chance to beat one of our rivals.
Miami has the fewest wins per NIL $$$’s.
Miami always finds a way to lose. It’s only a hope that Friday nite will be one of them.
Watch how the TV broadcast won’t show the ‘crowd’ in the full stadium. Just a close up of the student section.
No matter. This is a game that Miami will try to pile on some ‘beauty’ points if they get a chance.
These predictions seem right. I think this team has grit, tho. We aren’t well coached, make a lot of mistakes, and are inconsistent. But I think we have some gamers and will play tough. Let’s see.
Miami rolls. They will get up early and we shut down.
59-10
I think this team is much better than a lot of the “sell-outs” here make them out to be. This Hokie team will rise to the competition level and play inspired football !!! GO HOKIES !!!!!
I wonder if Bowen will finally unveil all his specially designed pro plays against UM that he has been holding back?? 😄
LOL!!🤣🤣
Sadly I think the Hokies may start to pack it in a if this game goes sideways in the first quarter or even first half. I could see them getting blown out and rolling over. Tech is talented enough to cover the +19.5, but something is really off about this team.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Miami takes advantage to make a statement and keeps the pedal down even with second stringers in the 4th.
Hokies lose bi > 30.
I like Andy, David, and Nick’s forecasts here in a much closer game. I’d take it a bit further in the belief that Tech could win this game. The onus is on Miami to prove this current iteration is more than just the ‘sunshine soldiers’ we’ve seen out of the Canes for decades now.
The Hokies have been their kryptonite, though they have hardly resembled Superman. We know we have talent on this current Tech squad though Pry’s bunch has hardly met expectations thus far. Let’s see how they respond when our boys start smacking them around and they realizing they are suddenly in a ballgame with a veteran team and getting shoved around a bit.
Sunshine Soldiers. Lol. Good one, never heard that before..
Miami had arguably the best portal haul of any school, and took full advantage of the PAC-12’s implosion. There isn’t a team in the country that Ward & Martinez wouldn’t start for. We might have a chance provided that Miami reverts to their typical over-confident arrogance and VT finally decides to play a determined 60-minute game. I wouldn’t want my life depending on it, though.
Cover your eyes if you decide to watch this mess. Still…
GO HOKIES!
Chris, do all of your readers realize your poll is a prediction poll, not what you want to happen poll? 9 percent picking Tech to win is ridiculous. If any of them want to put any $$$ on Tech winning straight up, I’ll take any bets they want to make.
Miami is going to open up a can of Stone Cold Austin whoop ass on us. The 28-0 game, well, they were turnover crazy. They came back and could have led the game by kicking an extra point, which, they missed
This one is over early. No, the U isn’t back, but they are much closer to it than VT.
This will be the first time this season VT has faced a team where we know going in that the opponent is very talented. Vanderbilt, Marshall, ODU, and Rutgers definitely didn’t fit the bill. I would like to think that we will come out focused and prepared and give ourselves a chance. Then I remember the FSU, Louisville, and NC State games last season and think we will never have a chance. If there is any program and coaching staff that will give us a chance, though, it’s the U. Put up or shut up time for the staff.
Miami’s OC & DC= Massive experience, each of them have been a coordinator at multiple stops.
Miami’s HC- massive experience, has had success at every stop and recruits at a high level.
VT OC & DC- Hired as youngest at their position in P5. No coordinator experience. Getting exposed over and over for 3 yrs
VT HC- no HC experience. Left a program that was .500 last 2 yrs he was there and has been elite since.
That said, the excuses of VT OC, DC & HC having no experience just doesn’t hold water anymore. It is posted to display how smart, successful coaches and ADs think when they fill out a staff. But all of our big 3 are on yr 3 now. They have 2+ yrs of experience in P4 football at the same stop, with a lot of the same players (with plenty of talent). The reality is now that it is not the experience holding them back, it is that they aren’t up to snuff. They aren’t grinders, they aren’t innovators, they can’t inspire a team to start fast, they can’t pregame plan, they can’t adjust in-game, they struggle to find and expose the weakness of their opponents, they don’t improve players, they do ‘t elevate players by putting them in positions to succeed. We get destroyed and continue knowing what we see here. 48-17 Miami
Sadly, I think Miami and 19 points is a lock. Drones will be facing 3rd and forever the whole game and our secondary will be torched with “plays they have never seen” Tuten is our only threat which Miami should be able to take away. That being said, I’ll be happy to eat my crow on Sunday. Go Hokies
Nothing about VT’s current coaching staff gives me confidence that this will be anything but a blowout in favor of Miami.
55-7 Miami.
If I’m wrong, I’ll eat a ribeye steak.
Wrong in what way? Exact score? Point spread?
I think Ward will go right at Mansoor and Strong in this game. I wouldn’t be surprised if tries to pick on Mansoor early in the game. They really haven’t been tested this year except for Mansoor in the Vandy game. Ward is so accurate and extremely confident in his abilities and enjoys a challenge.
Will devote my Friday evening to something less painful. Go Hokies but…
My optimistic take on it is this: Vandy and Rutgers are a lot better than people think. We can’t get caught up in the names of teams and their historical lack of significance in the football world. These are two good teams, and because of that, VT is much more ready for this game against Miami than people think. Chris said if the ball bounced a few different ways it could have been worse for VT in the ODU and Marshall wins….but that can be said for all the other teams VT has played as well…i.e. VT could have won those games assisted by those teams…just like those teams could have (and have) won those games assisted by VT. So, it’s all relative. In the end, if VT can play to their potential, which is higher than what we’ve seen thus far, and put it together with solid execution, even if the coordinators aren’t making it easy on the players, they’ll still be in it until the end.
I know Ward has the option to check out of plays, change protections, etc. Chris, do you know if Drones has those options? It doesn’t appear to me like he has, but you know more than I do I’m sure…… Thanks Chris
If the Hokies don’t utilize a nickel defense in this game, Miami will put up 50. The VT linebackers and safeties are going to have to play perfect in order to even slightly slow down the Cane’s passing game.
Defense won’t stop them no matter the formation
Very true Tracy. Maybe just slow them down a little would be nice….
Does anyone know if Schlee is getting some first team reps this week?
He shouldn’t unless Drones is injured
Drones needs reps
Yes, a lot of reps, but so far it hasn’t mattered as he’s so hesitant to throw the ball. He can get past his first read for some reason and the passing game is one of the worst in P4.
I’ll pick using the averages of your 5 score predictions. Miami 38 VT 20
I think there’s a good chance Schlee gets some playing time as a result of a Drones injury or desperation.