Game Preview: Virginia Tech Looks To Break Through In Norfolk Against ODU

Da’Quan Felton and Virginia Tech took down Old Dominion at home last season, but this year’s game is in Norfolk — a place the program has struggled. (Ivan Morozov)

Virginia Tech (1-1) heads east this weekend to play a game in front of its Tidewater fanbase. The Hokies will take on the Old Dominion Monarchs (0-2) in S.B. Ballard Stadium in Norfolk, a venue that has not been kind to Tech in recent years.

In 2018, a bad ODU team with a backup quarterback (Blake LaRussa, who retired from football at season’s end to go to seminary school) blasted Virginia Tech 49-35, a Hokies team that most people thought was good. In many ways, the program and fan base haven’t recovered from that day. In 2022, the Brent Pry era did not get off to an auspicious start, as the Hokies fell 20-17 to another bad Monarch team. The combined record of those two Old Dominion teams who beat Tech was 7-17.

This year’s version of ODU isn’t off to a great start, though it’s played a difficult schedule. Meanwhile, a couple of key injuries could potentially hold this team back even further. The Monarchs were beaten 23-19 on the road by South Carolina in the opening week of the season and lost 20-14 to East Carolina at home last weekend. They played well enough to win against the Gamecocks but didn’t have the firepower. However, they were dominated statistically by the Pirates, though they stayed in the game thanks to four ECU interceptions.

Offensively, questions surround the health of starting quarterback Grant Wilson. Defensively, Jason Henderson is one of the best linebackers in the country that most people have never heard of, but he missed last week’s game with an injury after playing only 36 snaps in the season opener against South Carolina. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in ODU’s season finale against Georgia State last season, and he doesn’t appear to be ready to play yet.

Virginia Tech is 3-0 against Old Dominion in Blacksburg, but 0-2 against the Monarchs in Norfolk. Let’s take a closer look at Saturday’s opponent.

Grant Wilson And The Quarterback Position

Wilson had a pretty good season for the Monarchs last year, completing 57.1% of his passes for 2,149 yards, with 17 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He averaged 2.9 yards per carry, rushing for 289 yards and scoring four times on the ground. In his first college start against Virginia Tech, he ran for 81 yards on 19 carries as the Monarchs schemed up the Hokies and posted 201 yards on the ground and averaged 4.7 yards per carry.

Wilson and the ODU offense (coordinated by Kevin Decker) were brand new in 2023 and took the Hokies by surprise. That’s unlikely to happen again this year, particularly in the third week of the season. Wilson’s status for Saturday’s game is also questionable. He went down with a wrist injury on the final play of Saturday’s lost to East Carolina. Naturally, Monarch head coach Ricky Rahne didn’t shed any light on the status of his starting quarterback.

“Grant is going to continue to be evaluated,” Rahne said. “Whoever gives us the best chance to win the game is going to be the starter. That’s how it is at every position we have.”

That’s the generic answer that you would expect from a head coach these days.

Wilson’s backup is listed as Colton Joseph (6-2, 200, r-Fr.) who has never played a college snap. ODU signed him all the way from Newport Beach, Calif., and he had offers from Army, Navy and Air Force. That indicates that he’s a mobile quarterback. That’s just about all we know, along with this quote from Old Dominion wide receiver Diante Vines:

“He likes to run around,” said senior wide receiver Diante Vines. “Fast dude, a little Johnny Manziel-esque sometimes when he tries to run out of the pocket and throw a nice little ball.”

So, he likes to run and he’s never played a down of college football. It’s easy to see things going very well for ODU in his college debut; it’s also easy to see things going poorly. We don’t even know if he’s going to play, though. If Wilson is healthy, he’s the starter. Chances are we won’t know anything until pregame on Saturday.

Will ODU quarterback Grant Wilson play against Virginia Tech? (Jon Fleming)

The Old Dominion Running Game

Through two games, the Old Dominion running game has been stymied.

South Carolina: 34 carries, 108 yards, 3.2 ypc
East Carolina: 41 carries, 95 yards, 2.3 ypc
Total: 75 carries, 203 yards, 2.7 ypc

Those are poor numbers, and if the Monarchs can’t run the ball, it’s hard to see them generating enough of a passing game to beat Virginia Tech no matter which quarterback is in the game. (Wilson managed just 94 passing yards on 25 attempts against Tech in 2023.)

Aaron Young (5-10, 203, Sr.) is the starter at tailback. The Rutgers transfer has never rushed for more than 208 yards in a season, and he has averaged just 3.6 yards per carry in five-plus years of college football. It’s a pretty big sample size, and he’s never been a very effective running back.

Former Virginia Tech tailback Bryce Duke (6-0, 210, Jr.) has gotten all of the backup carries in the first two weeks and has 11 attempts for 45 yards (4.1 ypc). This week, Devin Roche (5-7, 175, r-Fr.) is listed as the backup on the official ODU depth chart (page 15). He has never played an offensive snap in a college football game. It remains to be seen if Roche is the backup this week or if the depth chart is just for show and Duke will continue to get those carries.

Either way, the traditional ODU running game does not appear to be dangerous on paper.

The Old Dominion Receivers

The Monarch passing game has struggled just about as much as the running game through the season’s first two contests. Three different receivers have caught 10 passes, but two of them are averaging under eight yards per catch.

Isiah Paige (5-8, 161, Sr.): 10 catches for 131 yards, 1 TD. Paige has had a solid career for the Monarchs, and he had a big game against South Carolina (8 catches, 115 yards, 1 TD). Tech shut him down the last two years, holding him to a total of two catches for 17 yards.

Diante Vines (6-0, 198, Sr.): 10 catches, 71 yards. The transfer from Iowa has just 32 career catches, and he was part of one of the worst offenses in the country last season.

Miles Alston (6-1, 181, r-Jr.): 10 catches, 78 yards. The transfer from Pitt has 10 career receptions, all coming this season.

Kelby Williams (6-2, 185, Jr.) caught 26 balls for 451 yards a year ago, but has just two catches through the first two games in 2024. In fact, he’s played just seven snaps.

Paige, Vines and Alston have played nearly all the snaps for the Monarchs this year, with no other receiver getting more than 30. That indicates that ODU lacks depth at receiver, and it also appears to lack a big play threat on the outside among the guys who play. Like the running backs, on paper, this doesn’t seem to be a group that can do very much damage to the Hokies.

The ODU Offense, By The Numbers

Let’s go over some traditional and some advanced metrics. First, the traditional stats:

Rushing offense: No. 107
Yards per carry: No. 119
Passing offense: No. 94
Yards per attempt: No. 121
Total offense: No. 115
Yards per play: No. 125

You don’t need me to analyze that for you. Great googly moogly, that’s just about as bad as it gets.

And now for the advanced metrics:

FEI Offense: No. 125
OF+: No. 114
Available Yards: No. 112

Sometimes the traditional metrics can lie, to a certain extent. In this case, they do not. For example, the Monarchs have only gained 28.7% of the total offensive yards available to them this season. As a comparison, Virginia Tech — which hasn’t shown up for two entire halves offensively — has still managed to gain 48.3% of available yards, which ranks No. 50 in the country. Imagine if the Hokies could play a complete game, or even 75% of one!

On paper, no matter who is behind center for this one, the Monarchs shouldn’t be able to get much going against the Virginia Tech defense. This is a game that Tech should be able to win, even with a sub-par offensive showing.

Nick Gallo
Virginia Tech turned the ball over too many times in its last trip to Norfolk in 2022. (Ivan Morozov)

The ODU Defense, By The Numbers

The Old Dominion defense has been hit or miss so far. It does some things well and some things not-so-well.

Rushing defense: No. 104
Yards per carry: No. 55
Passing defense: No. 72
Yards per attempt: No. 77
Total defense: No. 92
Yards per play: No. 49

The Monarch defense doesn’t get much help from its offense. ODU’s defense has limited the yards per carry and yards per play of the opponents, but the total yardage numbers are poor — partly because opponents have run 21 more plays through the first two games.

One thing ODU allows is big plays. It’s already allowed 10 plays of 20-plus yards, which ranks No. 100 nationally. The Monarchs’ 27 plays of 10-plus yards allowed ranks No. 88.

And now for the advanced metrics:

FEI Defense: No. 54
DF+: No. 79
Available Yards: No. 58

As you might expect, the Old Dominion defense is more efficient than the traditional stats would suggest, but still only slightly above average.

The big thing to keep your eye on is the turnover numbers. The Monarchs have forced five turnovers in two games, which includes four interceptions against East Carolina. That’s how they were able to stay in that game.

If they can take the ball away from the Hokies multiple times, they’ll certainly be in the game in the fourth quarter. (If you recall, Grant Wells threw four picks in Norfolk in 2022, and that doesn’t include the botched field goal ODU returned for a touchdown.) However, if the Monarchs don’t force turnovers, their offense is so limited that they’ll likely eventually break on the defensive side of the ball.

Grant Wells Virginia Tech
Grant Wells had a good passing game against ODU’s 3-3-5 defense last year. (Jon Fleming)

The ODU Defense: Lack Of Size, But Quick And Savvy

The Monarchs use a 3-3-5 defense, with no starting defensive back weighing more than 185, no starting linebacker listed at more than 225 and the biggest starting lineman coming in at 280. This will be one of the smallest defenses the Hokies face, though ODU will put a decent amount of speed on the field.

With a somewhat unique defensive scheme, it can probably be difficult for quarterbacks to figure out what they are seeing. For example, South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers was just 10-of-23 for 114 yards in Week 1. Sellers was more efficient against Kentucky in Week 2, going 10-of-14 for 166 with two touchdowns and an interception.

With five defensive backs and three linebackers on the field, it helps the Monarchs create more unique coverage combinations on the back end. The Hokies were still able to pick ODU apart last year, with Grant Wells going 17-of-29 for 251 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Tech’s passing game has been extremely hit or miss thus far in 2024, however. It dominated the second half against Vanderbilt, yet accounted for just 42 yards on 16 attempts in the first half against Marshall the following week.

Establishing the run and then mixing in the pass seems to be the way to go for the Hokies this week (as it is every week).

The ODU Defense: Players To Know

If Jason Henderson were healthy, he’d be the guy on the ODU defense to keep an eye on this week. However, the Monarchs still have some other guys to keep an eye on:

S Jahron Manning (6-0, 185, Jr.): The New Orleans native played JUCO ball before matriculating to Norfolk this season. He’s played at a very high level through the first two weeks of the season. He has twice as many interceptions (2) as opponents have completed passes against him (1).

LB Koa Naotala (5-11, 227, r-So.): He’s Henderson’s backup, but he’s played well this year. He was on the field for a whopping 93 snaps last week against East Carolina and came up with 14 tackles and a run defense grade of 80.4, per PFF. It seems like whoever the Monarchs plug into that middle linebacker spot plays well.

If Henderson is able to play this week (he’s listed as starter on their official depth chart), it will be interesting to see what happens with Naotala. He seems like one of ODU’s best 11 defenders, so would the Monarchs use him at a different linebacker position to get their top two linebackers on the field?

Old Dominion linebacker Jason Henderson (42) is one of the nation’s best. Will he play against the Hokies this time around? (Jon Fleming)

In the secondary, cornerback Angelo Rankin Jr. (5-10, 185, Sr.) is a Richmond transfer who seems to be exploitable. He’s missed four tackles so far this year in his efforts to play at a higher level. Coincidentally, he also leads the ODU defense in total snaps (172), so he doesn’t come off the field. I would expect to see the Hokies attack him at some point.

Linebacker Jahleel Culbreath (6-2, 221, r-So.) has also struggled a bit in his first season as a starter, missing six tackles in the first two games. Tackling has been an issue for him his entire career with a 26.2% missed tackle rate.

Culbreath’s tackling issue is the best example of an entire defense that has struggled to tackle this year. The Monarchs are credited with 35 missed tackles in two games. As a comparison, Virginia Tech (who also struggled with tackling against Vanderbilt) has 25 missed tackles in two games. ODU missed 24 in one game against South Carolina, and the Hokies have plenty of offensive skill position talent — plus quarterback Kyron Drones — capable of forcing more missed tackles this week.

Special Teams

Isiah Paige is a veteran punt returner with 38 career returns under his belt. He’s solid, with an 8.5 career return average, but he’s never had a touchdown.

Running backs Bryce Duke and Devin Roche are expected to handle the kickoff returns. Roche has just one return in his career, and Duke has just six, so there’s not a big enough sample size to get a feel for whether either one of those guys has game-breaking ability. (Tech should know what Duke has in store, though, considering he was previously a kick returner for the Hokies.)

ODU’s coverage teams have been sound so far this season. Punter Seamus Hall is a JUCO transfer who has had a solid career, while kicker Ethan Sanchez is a veteran who is 26-of-36 on his field goal attempts for his career. Sanchez is 3-for-3 in the last two years against the Hokies with a long of 29 yards.

Virginia Tech is more talented with more depth than the Monarchs, so, in theory, that should give the Hokies an advantage on special teams.

Virginia Tech-Old Dominion Prediction Poll

Before our staff makes their picks, tell us what you think will happen Saturday.


What's Your Prediction for the 2024 Virginia Tech-ODU game?

  • Hokies Win by 11+ (63%, 871 Votes)
  • Hokies Win by 1-10 (29%, 401 Votes)
  • Monarchs Win by 1-10 (7%, 99 Votes)
  • Monarchs Win by 11+ (1%, 17 Votes)

Total Voters: 1,388

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Virginia Tech-Old Dominion Final Thoughts

Offensively, Old Dominion has been one of the worst teams in the country through two games. There is nothing to suggest that it will be able to consistently move the ball against Virginia Tech, and it’s failed to hit 20 points in each of its first two games.

Defensively, the Monarchs have hung in there by forcing turnovers, but they aren’t a dominant group — they are a bit undersized and have been a poor tackling team. Meanwhile, the Hokies have one of the best running backs in the country at forcing missed tackles in Bhayshul Tuten, and that’s without mentioning the quality at wide receiver and a quarterback who can run.

The key for the Hokies is to not screw around and only play one half of football. That worked out against Marshall at home last week, but the Monarchs will have belief that they can beat Virginia Tech because of what happened two years ago. If this one is 10-7 at halftime like last week, anything can happen.

I think ODU will hang in there thanks to its pass defense, but it shouldn’t be able to get anything going offensively. Last week against ECU, it wasn’t able to put together a drive that gained more than 35 yards until its last possession of the third quarter, and it had just two drives cover more than 42 yards against South Carolina.

What I dread is the Hokies turning the ball over and this being a one-score game in the fourth quarter. That’s the type of game that Virginia Tech struggles to win no matter who it is playing. In fact, the 2022 game in Norfolk is one of the best examples. Tech outgained ODU 333 to 249, but turned the ball over five times and lost 20-17 with Blake Watson scoring a touchdown with just 33 seconds remaining. That’s the only way I can foresee the Hokies losing this one — if they royally screw it up themselves. ODU doesn’t appear to be good enough to do it on their own.

If this one is close, with Tech’s 1-8 record in one-score games under Pry, I have little confidence the Hokies will win. However, if the visiting team plays like it is capable of playing, then it shouldn’t have any trouble winning this one.

Chris’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Old Dominion 13

Will Stewart (Founder and GM): If Virginia Tech wants to shake off its early-season doldrums, it must not only win in Norfolk, but win big, by three scores or more.

Fans are down on the Hokie offense, which has struggled in the first half of both games with a QB who looks uncomfortable (though his numbers are good, as I detailed in Monday Thoughts 🔒). The running game hasn’t been a big factor for Drones yet this year, as he’s averaging only 1.0 yards per carry after averaging 4.9 last year. Take out the seven sacks, and Drones still averages just about four yards per carry, with a long of just 13 yards.

I think that changes in this game. A big QB like Drones can have a good rushing game against a defense like ODU’s, and I think the Hokie coaches will leverage that (unless he’s hiding an injury and everyone is playing it safe).

Defensively, the Hokies aren’t likely to be stressed much by ODU’s offense, though VT has its weaknesses that can be exploited. I just don’t think ODU can do it.

I can’t go whole-hog on the offense breaking into the 40s, though. Not yet. Not in S.B. Ballard Stadium, at least. This is going to be on par with the Marshall score (which beats the hell out of losing in Norfolk).

Will’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Old Dominion 13

David Cunningham (Managing Editor): Things have not gone well for the Hokies in their previous two trips to Norfolk. Virginia Tech coming to town is Old Dominion’s Super Bowl, and the Monarchs showed up in both 2018 and 2022. I’m inclined to think it will be different this time around, but this is also a Tech team that’s struggled to play consistent football.

Does the Virginia Tech offense show up in the first half? If so, this is an easy game to pick. If it doesn’t and the Hokies only play one half of offense, they’re going to be in a predicament. That’s what happened in the two aforementioned losses. Tech was tied with ODU at halftime in 2018 (14-all) and trailed 10-7 at intermission in 2022. That can’t happen this time around if it wants to leave with a different result.

Ultimately, I think the Hokies win this one, courtesy of a defense that feels like it’s on the upswing and a sharp tackle-breaking machine in running back Bhayshul Tuten, but it’ll be close. One misstep here could be fatal, as evidenced before. Mistake-free football is vital, and my gut says this Tech team can pull it off.

David’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Old Dominion 20

Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): Call me a glutton for punishment after the Hokies laid major eggs the last two times they went down to Norfolk, but this feels like the week they get back on track. Tech has the more talented roster (that might not have been the case in 2022) and should — should! — be able to pull away for this one. I fully accept that I could look stupid if the S.B. Ballard Stadium curse strikes again.

ODU’s defense has been salty, though it’s been pretty turnover-dependent, which can be fluky from week to week. There are less rosy things to say about the Monarchs offense, which has been pretty bad. It doesn’t help that two of ODU’s most important players, quarterback Grant Wilson and linebacker Jason Henderson, have health questions coming into this one. Given that uncertainty, I’ll take a motivated Hokies group to cover.

Andy’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 30, Old Dominion 13

Nick Brown (Director of Media): The House of Horrors. In the two previous matchups by the beach Virginia Tech was out coached and, at times, outmanned. While it is uncertain that the Hokies will out coach Ricky Rahne, they are vastly more talented than the Monarchs.

Old Dominion boasts a sound defense which has been evident in its first two weeks despite two losses. However, the defense has not been complemented by an adequate offense; aside from a magnificent play against South Carolina, the Monarchs’ offense has been stagnant, even after benefiting from four interceptions from East Carolina last week.

As Ted Logan once famously said in Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure (1989), “Strange things are afoot at the Circle K.”

Something weird, strange or funky is bound to happen in the 757 this Saturday (hopefully no more stolen jewelry or iPads), but the outcome will be a decisive, boring victory for the Hokies, marking a 2-1 start to the 2024 season for Brent Pry.

Nick’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Old Dominion 10


2024 Virginia Tech Football Predictions Tracker - TSL Staff
Game
Chris (7-1)
David (7-1)
Nick (7-1)
Will (6-2)
Andy (6-2)
Result
@Vandy
Marshall
@ODU
Rutgers
@Miami
@Stanford
Boston College
Georgia Tech
Syracuse
2024 Virginia Tech Football Predictions Tracker - Fans (7-1)

(record based on W-L, not margin of victory)
Game
Fan Poll
Result
Score
@Vanderbilt
Hokies Win by 11+ (73%)
Vanderbilt 34, Hokies 27
Marshall
Hokies Win by 11+ (50%)
Hokies 31, Marshall 14
@ODU
Hokies Win by 11+ (63%)
Hokies 37, ODU 17
Rutgers
Rutgers Wins by 1-10 (39%)
Rutgers 26, Hokies 23
@Miami
Miami Wins by 11+ (84%)
Miami 38, Hokies 34
@Stanford
Hokies Win by 1-10 (48%)
Hokies 31, Stanford 7
Boston College
Hokies Win by 1-10 (54%)
Hokies 42, Eagles 21
Georgia Tech
Hokies Win by 1-10 (51%)
Hokies 21, Jackets 6

29 Responses You are logged in as Test

  1. If we don’t show up in the first half like we haven’t in the last two games. We are very likely primed for being beaten for the third time in a row at ODU. We can’t keep starting games as poorly as we have been doing and expect to win. This team has actually regressed on offense this year. It’s been very disappointing. Especially the offensive line.

  2. I’m here hoping for a Clemson / App State type score. Virginia Tech just shouldn’t going to play (or ever struggle with) a losing record G5 team in a 20,000 seat stadium.

    It’s up to the team to prove they don’t need to be traveling to these places.

  3. The talent difference between VT and ODU is significant, which should lead to a 41-17 win for the Hokies. VT should be able to both run and pass for over 200 yards each, while keeping ODU’s total offense under 275 yards.

    However, the curse I named “Ballard Bubbly-Jock” could be in full force again and the Hokies leave with another ugly loss on the road to the Monarchs.

  4. Colty Joseph will single-handedly beat us. He’ll run all over the field and we will not adjust.

    We have all seen this scenario way too many times.

  5. Based on the posts to the story maybe better if we just don’t show up to play the game. I guess all our players & coaches should leave the program. Wow , I understand concern but pretty much all negativity…

  6. South Carolina is better than Vandy. East Carolina is better than Marshall. With that, their defense has more sacks than us and has created waaay more TOs.

    Buyer beware.

  7. 1st, David C’s quote, “One misstep here could be fatal, as evidenced before”. This is scary. By most accounts based on talent, this game should be a walk over, yet 1 misstep could be fatal.

    2nd, the backup QB has never played, yet is described as a runner. Will we see another Heisman like performance, from a no name who is never heard from again? It’s happened to us several times.

    3rd, VT has yet to play a full game of offense.

    4th, this game is being played in a glorified Texas high school stadium.

    We may be lucky to escape with a 3 pt win. I would never bet on us to cover 14.5 points.

  8. “Wilson and the ODU offense (coordinated by Kevin Decker) were brand new in 2023 and took the Hokies by surprise.” Sounds like we can’t just line up and beat a team. We have to know what they are going to do and the other team must comply or our coaches will be baffled. If ODU throws in a few wrinkles like a different, mobile QB, then we are toast. I can hear our coaches now. “Well we didn’t have any film on that kid and he really showed us something we hadn’t seen before.”

    1. I love this post. “They did things we didn’t expect them to do”. And we didn’t adjust. People on TSL Knew we could get beat by a running QB, but it never crossed our minds. Aka East Carolina

  9. Maybe the key (broken tackles, especially with the disparity in size across the board): “Meanwhile, the Hokies have one of the best running backs in the country at forcing missed tackles in Bhayshul Tuten, and that’s without mentioning the quality at wide receiver and a quarterback who can run.”

  10. If we lose (can happen) then Pry, his coord. will have to walk to B’burg and greet the moving vans at their house. No way, should VT lose to ODU, but it has and could happen again.

    GO HOKIES, beat ODU and smile!

  11. Tech stuck in the mud, especially on offense. Until this changes expect a very disappointing performance Saturday.

  12. Don’t seel these guys (ODU) short! I live in Tidewater and they are brimming with confidence. They think the “mojo” is still in force and they are ready to go! They stayed with USC for most of 3 quarters. Gamecocks just wore them out. But USC wins close games. I’m telling you, my Hokie friends, this will be a barn burner! Go Hokies!

  13. So what I’m hearing is Colton Joseph will start and torch us running the football every down. And KD will be confused by an unusual defense. And if we go into the half close it’s likely to go south.
    Yes Chris, I’m scarred.

  14. The game is on turf. We always suck on turf.
    Don’t know why.
    Can’t get Pry’s whining about the hot turf recently out of my head.
    I’m just wondering what bizarre event will take place in Norfolk. To keep the string alive from the past 2 visits.
    Theft? Elevator?

  15. Double digit road win by all predictions? Have you guys not learned anything yet with a Pry road team?

    1. Well, we HAVE won 2 of our last 3 road games by double digits (3 of 4 if you count “neutral” bowl game).

      11/11/23 @ Boston College W 48-22
      11/25/23 @ Virginia W 55-17
      2/27/23 + Tulane W 41-20
      8/31/24 @ Vanderbilt L 27-34

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