After back-to-back wins over Duke and Syracuse, Virginia Tech (13-8, 3-7 ACC) travels to Miami (16-5, 7-4 ACC) on Tuesday night. Mike Monaco and Malcolm Huckaby have the call at 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
On Monday’s ACC teleconference, head coach Mike Young said the status of junior guard Darius Maddox, who was unavailable for Saturday’s game against the Orange due to a family emergency, is still up in the air.
“He’s doing great,” Young said. “That situation is still ongoing with family. I’m not sure if he’ll be back tomorrow, we hope that he will be.”
Tech has won three of the last four games in the series with Miami, including a 71-70 victory in February 2022 in the Watsco Center. Ironically, Maddox drilled the game-winning 3-pointer with 14.6 seconds remaining to hand the Hokies their lone Quadrant 1 win in the regular season.
As it stands on Tuesday, they’re 2-4 in Q1 games in 2022-23 with wins over Oklahoma State and Duke. The résumé is in better shape than last season, and a win in South Florida could provide another big boost.
Miami
The Hurricanes are in a similar spot to the Hokies as of late. They’re 3-4 in their last seven with wins against Boston College, Syracuse and Florida State. On the other side, Tech is 2-5 over that same stretch, though they have won two in a row.
In early November, Tech Sideline split the conference in half and published two previews of the teams around the ACC. Here’s the synopsis for Miami:
Miami could be one of the most dangerous teams in the ACC in 2022-23. Jim Larrañaga returns Isaiah Wong (it feels like he’s been in Coral Gables for 10 years) and Jordan Miller, and the Canes added Kansas State transfer Nijel Pack in the offseason. Miami picked up two top-100 recruits in AJ Casey and Christian Watson, too. Larrañaga’s squad was one of the best offensive teams in the country last year (19th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency; fifth in the ACC behind Duke, Syracuse, Virginia Tech and North Carolina). The losses of Kameron McGusty and Charlie Moore hurt, but Miami is expected to compete for a league title. As I said last year, don’t be surprised if the Hokies and Canes split this series as they did in 2021-22.
The Canes are right around those expectations. They rank 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency in D-I, second in the ACC, even though Jim Larrañaga only returned two starters (Wong and Miller). But the defense, which ranks 110th (adj. defensive eff.), isn’t the strength.
In comparison to Larrañaga’s previous years, it’s right on line with last season’s team: 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 107th defensively. The last time Miami was better on defense was 2018. The five teams in Larrañaga’s 11 previous seasons that made the NCAA Tournament were the ones with plenty of balance:
2012-13: Adj. offensive efficiency: No. 22; Defensive: No. 18
2015-16: Adj. offensive efficiency: No. 11; Defensive: No. 42
2016-17: Adj. offensive efficiency: No. 76; Defensive: No. 25
2017-18: Adj. offensive efficiency: No. 53; Defensive: No. 48
2021-22: Adj. offensive efficiency: No. 19; Defensive: No. 107
Miami is a veteran unit (29th in D-I experience, per KenPom) and it shows on offense. The team is 26th in free throw percentage (76.1%), 29th in effective field goal percentage (54.3%), 30th in two-point percentage (54.7%), 67th in turnover percentage (16.9%) and 71st in offensive rebound percentage (32.4%). It’s a talented group on that end of the floor, meaning the Hokies will need to be even more technically sound on defense.
The Canes are a well-balanced scoring team, too. Here’s the scoring distribution:
3-pointers: 29.4%; No. 236
2-pointers: 53.2%; No. 103
Free Throws: 17.4%; No. 233
How do their percentages translate to conference play?
3-pointers: 29.5%; 10th
2-pointers: 51.7%; 7th
Free Throws: 18.7%; 4th
Only Wake Forest has a better offense in ACC play than Miami. And only Clemson, Virginia and North Carolina have been better on defense. When the Canes are on, they’re on. But what’s happened lately in their league games? After a 4-0 start in the ACC with wins at Louisville, vs. NC State, vs. Virginia and at Notre Dame, they lost a few close games. Here are their last seven results:
Jan. 4 at Georgia Tech: L, 76-70
Jan. 11 vs. Boston College: W, 88-72
Jan. 14 at NC State: L, 83-81 (OT)
Jan. 16 vs. Syracuse: W, 82-78
Jan. 21 at Duke: L, 68-66
Jan. 24 at Florida State: W, 86-63
Jan. 28 at Pitt: L, 71-68
Miami hasn’t been very good in late-game situations. Against the Panthers, it held an eight-point lead with 2:30 remaining and allowed 11 unanswered points.
“My message to the team has always been, ‘We’re gonna be in a ton of close games and you’ve got to get comfortable with that,'” Larrañaga said on Monday. “These one possession, two-point, one-point games, you have to be at your best when your best is required. You have to be at your best defensively. You’ve got to be able to make free throws, and you don’t want to turn the ball over. … Unfortunately, we made three critical turnovers late in the [Pitt] game.”
The Hurricanes’ Roster
Six different players have started a game while four average double figures. Here’s what the rotation looks like according to points per game:
Isaiah Wong (6-4, 184, Sr.): 16.2
Jordan Miller (6-7, 195, Sr.): 15.0
Norchad Omier (6-7, 248, Jr.): 13.5
Nijel Pack (6-0, 184, Jr.): 11.9
Wooga Poplar (6-5, 192, So.): 7.4
Bensley Joseph (6-2, 207, So.): 5.4
Harlond Beverly (6-6, 200, Sr.): 3.4
Anthony Walker (6-9, 215, Sr.): 3.0
The Canes haven’t used the transfer portal much, but it’s been kind to them. Pack transferred from the Big 12’s Kansas State while Norchad Omier joined from Arkansas State. And Miller, a Loudoun Valley High School product, is in his second year at Miami after spending his first three at George Mason.
Wong, Miller, Omier and Pack are all major contributors. Wong has the highest possession percentage on the team at 24%, but the other three are all between 19.6 and 23.6. However, Miller is the x-factor.
With the 28th-best offensive rating in the country (129.3), Miller is an elite scorer. His turnover rate is low (10.5, No. 133 in D-I) while he ranks 109th in effective field goal percentage. He ranks in the top 10 across the board in many conference-only stats: offensive rating (third), true shooting percentage (fourth), effective field goal percentage (sixth) and turnover rate (seventh). At 37.1%, he can step out and shoot the three, too.
Justyn Mutts will likely draw the assignment of Miller while Grant Basile matches up with Omier. He’s the first person from Nicaragua to attend a D-I school on a basketball scholarship. On the court, he’s a large presence on the glass: No. 16 in offensive rebound percentage and No. 50 in defensive rebounding percentage. While averaging 10.4 boards per game, Omier also ranks 104th in effective field goal percentage.
While Miami’s frontcourt is a problem with two efficient scorers, the backcourt is very talented. A Third Team All-ACC nominee in 2022, Wong has been around the block. Though only a sophomore, Pack’s pretty experienced as well. Poplar is the third guard in the mix, and though he doesn’t take as many shots as the other players in the starting lineup, he’s good on the defensive end.
In last year’s meeting in Coral Gables, five Miami players scored in double figures. Kameron McGusty and Wong led the way with 15 and 14, respectively. While the Hurricanes shot 50%, the job Virginia Tech did on the boards was impressive. The Hokies won the rebounding battle by 10, 31-21, much in part to Keve Aluma’s 10 boards. Tech overcame 19 turnovers – Miami had nine – by shooting 58%.
The Hokies need to dictate the tempo on Tuesday night. They’re still winless on the road and they’re facing a talented Hurricanes squad that can score from all over the place. Tech needs quality minutes from MJ Collins and John Camden on the wing, and a well-rounded distribution of points, similar to the Duke and Syracuse games, would do.
“Different year, same team,” Mike Young said of Miami. “Excellent guard play. Jordan Miller is playing very, very well for them. … Another good team that Coach Larrañaga has on the floor. We’ll have our hands full, but I like our direction, I like how we’re playing.”
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Captain Obvious says VT REALLY needs the W tonight. Teams getting quality conference road wins will make the difference on Selection Sunday.
The truth is that if we had not won the ACC tournament (not merely made to the finals but won it) we would not have been selected on Selection Sunday as the low seeding we got for the ACC Champions indicated.
I really don’t see this year as any different.