Game Preview: Virginia Tech Faces Dominant Duke Rushing Offense

• Virginia Tech vs. Duke: Saturday, November 12, Noon, RSN (affiliates list)
• Betting Line: Virginia Tech +10.5
• Roster cards: Click here
• Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
• Durham weather: Click here

Losers of six games in a row, Virginia Tech (2-7, 1-5 ACC) travels to Durham this weekend to take on a resurgent Duke (6-3, 3-2 ACC) program that is already bowl eligible under first-year head coach Mike Elko.

Duke’s turnaround from 2021 is just about as impressive a one-year flip as you’ll ever see. The Blue Devils went 3-9 overall last year with an 0-8 mark in ACC play. Here were their margins of defeat in all eight ACC games…

• 31
• 4
• 48
• 38
• 25
• 31
• 40
• 37
• Average: 31.75 points

If that 31.75 margin isn’t the worst in ACC history, I want to know what is. That number seems really high, even for a bad team. For example, Duke’s 2001 team also went 0-8 in the ACC but “only” lost their eight games by an average of 27 points. Outside of a 4-point loss to a poorly-coached Georgia Tech team, the closest the Blue Devils could manage in 2021 was a 25-point loss to Pitt. They looked like one of the least talented ACC teams that we had ever seen.

Enter new head coach Mike Elko. Though he’s in his first season, he’s worked under Dave Clawson, Brian Kelly and Jimbo Fisher in the past. So far, the Blue Devils have outscored ACC opponents by an average of 9.2 points per game. That’s a 41-point turnaround in one season, which is pretty unbelievable. Both of their ACC losses were by three points, so they’ve been very close to being even better.

And they did all of that despite losing their best player to the transfer portal and the graduation of a 1,200-yard rusher. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a more shocking or unexpected turnaround than Duke in 2022. They were picked last by a mile in the Coastal Division this year, and with another win or two, Mike Elko has to be a serious contender for ACC Coach of the Year.

What has been the key to Elko’s success? Key additions to the team from the transfer portal, most of which have worked out. That includes three offensive line starters. The other key has been the development of players who were already in the program. Many Blue Devil players are performing at a much higher level in 2022 than they did in 2021. That individual player improvement across the board will be a big part of this week’s game preview.

The Duke Offense

Mike Elko hired some experienced coaches to help turn the Duke offense around. Here are the guys who stand out…

— OC Kevin Johns: Former OC at Memphis, Texas Tech, Western Michigan and Indiana. Johns has coached every single offensive position during his career with the exception of the offensive line.

— RB Coach Trooper Taylor: Retained from David Cutcliffe’s staff, Taylor has coached at Tennessee, Oklahoma State and Auburn with a few other stops mixed in.

— OL Coach/RGC Adam Cushing: Cushing is the former Eastern Illinois head coach, and before that he served as an assistant coach at Northwestern from 2005 through 2021. This hire made sense for Eklo, because Cushing is used to coaching and recruiting at a very similar school.

Former Virginia Tech assistant Zohn Burden is also on the staff, though he’s back to coaching his natural position – wide receiver. He did a good job with Cam Phillips and Isaiah Ford in 2015 but was only in that role on the Tech staff for one season.

The improvement has certainly been there under the new coaching staff. Here’s a look at a couple of advanced metrics…

FEI offense: No. 123 in 2021, No. 44 in 2022
Available Yards: No. 83 in 2021, No. 38 in 2022

The Blue Devils averaged 22.8 points per game (No. 102 last season) and are averaging 34.8 (No. 29) this year. All of that improvement has come despite losing their best player (WR Jake Bobo, 74 receptions in 2021) to the transfer portal and UCLA. They lost 1,200-yard rusher Mataeo Durant, too. This is one of the best year-to-year offensive turnarounds that you’ll see.

Under the guidance of Johns (who also serves as quarterbacks coach), Riley Leonard (6-4, 212, So.) has made tremendous strides this season. Leonard started one game last year – at Virginia Tech – and he struggled, but he’s a much better player as a sophomore under a new coaching staff.

Passing: 159-of-247 (64.4%) for 1,851 yards, 11 TDs, 4 INTs
Rushing: 91 carries, 577 yards, 6.3 ypc, 9 TDs

Leonard’s longest run of the year is 74 yards, so he can scoot. With the exception of UNC’s Drake Maye, Leonard is the toughest quarterback matchup of the season for Virginia Tech, and he went toe-to-toe with Maye in a game that went down to the wire last month.

Leonard is a large part of a very good Duke running game. It’s one of the best rushing attacks the Hokies will see all season, and it features a very strong rotation at tailback…

• Jordan Waters (6-0, 214, r-Jr.): 94 carries, 461 yards, 4.9 ypc, 8 TDs
• Jaquez Moore (5-10, 195, So.): 58 carries, 396 yards, 6.8 ypc, 4 TDs
• Jaylen Coleman (6-1, 205, r-Jr.): 58 carries, 307 yards, 5.3 ypc, 4 TDs

None of those players were highly recruited. Coleman was the No. 72 player in North Carolina, Waters ranked No. 47 in North Carolina and Moore was No. 165 in Florida. They combined for one other Power 5 offer besides Duke.

Coleman missed the last four games due to injury but returned to practice before Duke’s most recent game against Boston College. He could be ready to make his return against Virginia Tech this Saturday. With or without him, the Blue Devil running game will be strong. They rank No. 21 in the country in rushing yards per game (208.1) and No. 17 in yards per carry (5.41).

The new Duke coaching staff also managed to rebuild its offensive line quickly through the transfer portal. Three of their five starters were grabbed from the portal in the offseason…

• LG Chance Lytle (6-7, 329, r-Sr.): Colorado
• C Jack Burns (6-4, 295, r-Sr.): Cornell
• RT Andre Harris (6-4, 312, r-Sr.): Arkansas State

Burns was grabbed from an Ivy League school while Harris came from a G5 program. They’ve all done a nice job, particularly Burns and Harris.

However, Duke’s best lineman is their returning starter at left tackle, Graham Barton (6-5, 311, Jr.). He’s been a dominant tackle for the Blue Devils this season and is probably the best offensive lineman the Hokies will see. He’s jumped from a good player (73.1 grade last year) to an elite player (87.0) in 2022.

Barton is the third-highest graded offensive tackle in the country and should make some All-American lists. He’s allowed only six total pressures all year. Three of them came last week against BC, but it would be hard to see him playing like that for two weeks in a row. Brent Pry specifically mentioned him by name in his Tuesday press conference.

“I don’t know that I’ve seen a better offensive tackle than 62,” Pry said. “I’m not familiar with his name. But he’s their left tackle. He’s a veteran, a Tennessee kid. He can run, he’s long, he’s smart. He gets in good position. To me, he makes that O-line go.”

Though the Blue Devils lost Jake Bobo to UCLA, they’ve still been able to develop their other wideouts and put a competent product on the field this season. Here are their two main guys…

— Jalon Calhoun (5-11, 189, Sr.): 36 catches, 491 yards, 13.6 avg, 2 TDs. Calhoun has been a solid player during his career, and he’s continued that into 2022.

— Jordan Moore (6-0, 195, So.): 32 catches, 331 yards, 10.3 avg, 3 TDs. Moore has played well for Duke despite moving from quarterback in the offseason. He had 17 carries for 113 yards as a quarterback against Virginia Tech last season.

Unfortunately for Duke, Eli Pancol (6-3, 205, Sr.) suffered a season-ending injury during the Miami game. As a result, the Blue Devils don’t have much quality size at wide receiver. This isn’t a dominant group of wideouts, but the coaches are getting the most out of them, and the running game helps them be better than they actually are.

It’s clear that the key to stopping the Duke offense is to stop the Duke running game. That will be a major problem for the Hokies. Remember, the Blue Devils rank No. 21 in rushing yards per game. The only other team Virginia Tech has faced in the top 50 in rushing offense was No. 48 Pitt, and we all remember how that one went…Israel Abanikanda ran for 320 yards and six touchdowns.

The Duke Defense

A former defensive coordinator in his own right, Mike Elko hired Robb Smith to be his defensive coordinator. Smith was previously the defensive coordinator at Rutgers, Minnesota and Arkansas, and he came up in the coaching ranks with Greg Schiano. To help Smith, Elko hired Jess Simpson as co-defensive coordinator after working last season at Miami and previously working as a defensive line coach in the NFL. He’s also the former head coach and defensive coordinator at Buford High School in Georgia, which is a national powerhouse.

(Duke also has Zach Sparber as a grad assistant/analyst, who spent three years in Blacksburg getting his start under Bud Foster.)

The Blue Devils have improved their defense this season. Part of that is because of improvement from returning players, and they’ve also brought in an FCS transfer who has made a big impact. Here are their three highest graders, per PFF…

— DT DeWayne Carter (6-3, 298, r-Jr.): Carter has the team lead in tackles for loss (9) and sacks (4.5). He’s been a dominant force on the interior for the Blue Devils this year, and he was especially dominant against Miami a few weeks back. Out of 194 defensive tackles with 300+ snaps, he is ranked No. 7 nationally in PFF grade. He’s improved his grade from 70.1 last year to 88.3 this season.

— DE RJ Oben (6-4, 255, r-Jr.): Oben has 5.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks on the season. He’s been a major disruptor up front for the Blue Devils. His PFF grade has risen from 68.0 to 83.9 since last year. Out of 247 edge defenders with 300+ snaps in 2022, Oben ranks 14th nationally.

— S Darius Joiner (6-2, 200, Sr.): Joiner transferred in from Western Illinois in the offseason after spending his first two seasons at Jacksonville State. He leads the team in tackles with 70, and he’s also got seven tackles for loss, three sacks, an interception and a forced fumble. Joiner is the 12th highest-grading safety in college football with a minimum of 400 snaps out of 226 qualified players.

It doesn’t stop with those guys, however. Columbia transfer Cam Dillon (6-2, 229, Sr.) has brought good depth and experience to the linebacking corps. He doesn’t start, but he’ll rotate in, and he’s played at a solid level. However, much of the reason Duke has improved is because their returning talent has made tremendous improvement. Besides the aforementioned Carter and Oben, here are some other guys who have made huge strides, according to their PFF grades:

• DT Ja’Mion Franklin (6-2, 311, r-Sr.): 65.4 to 74.5
• LB Shaka Heyward (6-3, 240, r-Sr.): 50.7 to 73.6
• S Jaylen Stinson (5-8, 173, Jr.): 56.5 to 70.4
• CB Brandon Johnson (5-10, 180, So.): 56.5 to 69.7
• DE Michael Reese (6-3, 259, r-So.): 56.6 to 64.7

That’s obviously key individual improvement, but what do the team numbers look like?

• FEI defense: No. 114 in 2021, No. 81 in 2022
• Available Yards: No. 122 in 2021, No. 88 in 2022
• Total Defense: No. 130 in 2021 (dead last), No. 83 in 2022
• Scoring Defense: No. 127 in 2021, No. 45 in 2022

Are they dominant? No. But they have improved tremendously overnight with the coaching change in Durham. Elko and his coaches appear to be getting the most out of the players. They still have some holes, such as a starting safety who is about the same size as me, but they are competent as a group this year.

The Blue Devils play a 4-2-5 and like to attack. They rank No. 28 nationally in tackles for loss, and plenty of that penetration comes right up the middle in the form of DeWayne Carter. The good thing for the Hokies is that they’ve done a better job of stopping penetration against the running game over the last month. Here are the yards lost by VT’s running backs in each game since Pitt…

• Pitt: 0
• Miami: 0
• NCSU: 1
• GT: 0

That’s good no matter how you slice it, so just because the Blue Devils have a lot of tackles for loss on the season doesn’t necessarily mean they will do it on Saturday against the Hokies. In fact, Tech’s recently history says they won’t. Now, if VT could just get their pass blocking issues solved.

The weak spot on defense for the Blue Devils is at cornerback where Iowa State transfer Datrone Young (5-9, 179, r-Sr.) and Joshua Pickett (6-0, 186, So.) have gotten torched. Young is the only transfer that hasn’t worked out for Duke, and it’s a bit surprising considering he often played at a decent level for the Cyclones. The staff should probably play Chandler Rivers (5-10, 182, Fr.) more, as he has been their most consistent cornerback this season. Even though he isn’t listed as a starter on the depth chart, Rivers has started their last two games and opponents have only completed 6-of-13 passes against him in that span.

Young and Pickett have both had really rough seasons this year, however. Here are the numbers for opposing quarterbacks when targeting those two players…

• Young: 21-of-32 (65.6%), 342 yards, 16.3 avg, 4 TDs
• Pickett: 35-of-53 (66.0%), 450 yards, 12.9 avg, 5 TDs

Though Kaleb Smith can certainly cake advantage of both guys (especially the smaller Young), do the Hokies have any other receivers who can do the same?

Duke Special Teams

Charlie Ham began the season as Duke’s field goal kicker, but he went only 9-of-15, including a big miss in a three-point loss to UNC. True freshman Todd Pelino has handled field goal duties in the last two games and is 2-of-2 with a long of 39 yards. We don’t know who will be the kicker for the Blue Devils against the Hokies. Here’s what Mike Elko had to say about the situation last week…

“On the Charlie [Ham] situation, I am again going to say Charlie’s dealing with a little bit of a personal situation. It is not performance based and it is not something that I am going to comment on, but Charlie won’t be available this week and is just continuing to work through some stuff. That is all I am going to say on that situation.”

So, it’s hard to say who will be kicking for Duke this weekend. Ham is much better at kickoffs than Pelino, with 33 of 43 going for touchbacks, while just two of Pelino’s 12 have gone for touchbacks.

Duke is averaging 23.4 yards per punt return this year, though only 10 punts have been returned. Normally, Jalon Calhoun returns them, but redshirt-freshman Sahmir Hagans had an 81-yarder for a touchdown. Conversely, only 10 punts have been returned against Duke this season for an average of 5.2 yards per return, so don’t expect Tucker Holloway to have the room that he had last week against Georgia Tech.

Jaylen Stinson has been solid as a kickoff returner. He had a 67-yarder against North Carolina A&T, and four other returns of between 25 and 28 yards. If either team is more likely to win the kickoff return battle this week, it’s the Blue Devils.

New to TSL: A reader suggested that we include our prediction poll *before* you read our predictions, and we like that idea. So here it is:

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Final Thoughts

I actually felt like Virginia Tech had an outside shot to win this one…until I did the research for this preview. Here is the amount of points Duke has scored in each of its last five games…

UVA: 38
GT: 20
UNC: 35
Miami: 45
BC: 38

Outside of one odd performance against Georgia Tech, Duke is clearing the 30-point barrier without any difficulty. Meanwhile, the Hokies have yet to score 30 points all season. This is a long preview, but I probably could have just written the last couple of paragraphs and called it a day.

Digging a little deeper, we thought at the beginning of the season that the Virginia Tech rushing defense was solid. We were wrong. As it turned out, ODU and BC were just plain bad, and Wofford was Wofford. Here’s how the Virginia Tech rushing defense has done since then…

WVU: 218 yards, 4.7 ypc
UNC: 160 yards, 5.0 ypc
Pitt: 326 yards, 7.6 ypc
Miami: 107 yards, 3.8 ypc
NCSU: 60 yards, 1.8 ypc
GT: 210 yards, 4.7 ypc

Tech did well against Miami, who was without its starting tailback, and also shut down NC State. The Hokies got lit up in the other four games, however, and Duke is the best running team they’ve faced all year. In a normal year, I would say that they would have a chance to outscore the Blue Devils, but as noted above, this VT offense hasn’t hit 30 points all season. I’m just not seeing a path to victory here. If somebody else can find one, I’m all ears. I do think the Hokie wide receivers will generate some big plays against Duke’s corners, but I can’t see them outscoring the Blue Devils.

I can promise you that I hate making these weekly picks even more than you like reading them, but picking Virginia Tech here would be downright dishonest of me.

Chris’s Prediction: Duke 38, Virginia Tech 21

Will Stewart’s Take: Chris has been talking to me about Duke’s improvement not just for the last couple of days, but well before they appeared on the Hokies’ schedule. This appears to be a very well-coached team.

I think the Hokies are going to struggle in a major way with Riley Leonard spearheading the Duke rushing attack. He’s a deceptively fast runner. Leonard opened the game last Friday against Boston College by ripping off a 60-yard TD run. Watch how the BC defenders take bad angles and then can’t catch up with him:

TheACC.com currently lists Leonard as the fifth-leading rusher in the conference with 577 net yards, but he has “lost” 78 yards rushing, mostly (or completely) on sacks. Adding in the yards lost on sacks would nudge him up to fourth, behind Sean Tucker of Syracuse, Will Shipley of Clemson and Israel Abanikanda of Pitt. Leonard is third in the conference in yards per rush (6.3), and that includes yardage lost on sacks.

Riley Leonard is a really good running back playing quarterback.

In the passing game, TheACC.com lists Leonard No. 9 in the ACC with a pass efficiency rating of 138.8, well ahead of No. 10 Grant Wells (116.7).

One area where Duke really shines is in turnover margin (+1.56), at No. 3 in the nation. Virginia Tech is No. 120 (-0.89). That’s an aggregate in turnover margin of 2.45 to Duke’s advantage. In penalties per game, Duke’s advantage isn’t as large, but is still big, No. 58 (6.11) to Virginia Tech’s No. 125 (8.56).

I could keep on throwing out numbers, but the bottom line is that I think Virginia Tech will struggle to contain Duke’s No. 21-ranked (nationally) rushing offense, and the Blue Devils have too big of an advantage in the intangibles of turnovers and penalties for Virginia Tech to overcome that.

Virginia Tech has yet to play that “wow” game where they put it all together. They may do that against Duke, but I can’t pick that, based on what we know about the two teams.

Will’s Prediction: Duke 31, Virginia Tech 17

David Cunningham’s Take: I already knew I was going to pick Duke, so since I was the last to make my pick this week, I read what Will and Chris wrote. Yikes.

Tech faced two true freshmen quarterbacks the last two weeks and did not fare well. MJ Morris was more of a threat through the air for NC State while Georgia Tech’s Zach Pyron did a bit of both. He was sacked three times, but he averaged 6.7 yards per carry in the run game (94 yards, 14 attempts). Duke’s Riley Leonard is better than both.

Against Pitt, the Hokies struggled to simply tackle. Cole Nelson had Israel Abanikanda wrapped up and then he slipped away and scampered for a touchdown. That aspect hasn’t exactly improved lately, and Pyron made some runs look awfully easy last week.

It’s amazing that Virginia Tech had three – YES, you read that right, three – running backs last week that averaged five-plus yards on the ground.

Chance Black: 2 rush, 13 yards (6.5 avg)
Keshawn King: 13 rush, 79 yards (6.1 avg)
Jalen Holston: 4 rush, 21 yards (5.3 avg)

But… the Hokies fumbled three times. And two came from Grant Wells, who was sacked five times and lost 36 yards. Every week, it’s been something different for Tech. Penalties here, turnovers there. What’s it going to be this week?

This is only the third time in 19 meetings as ACC foes that Duke has been favored over Virginia Tech. Overall, Hokies are 15-3 straight up and 9-9 ATS. When the Blue Devils are favored? Two outright wins. I think the Hokies have a chance to cover, but I think they lose in Durham for the first time since joining the conference in 2004.

David’s Prediction: Duke 34, Virginia Tech 24

Last Game’s Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech Prediction Poll Results

Game Result: Georgia Tech 28, Virginia Tech 27

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2022 Virginia Tech Football Predictions Tracker - TSL Staff
Game	Chris (8-3)	Will (7-4)	David (8-3)	Result
@ODU
BC
Wofford
WVU
@UNC
@Pittsburgh
Miami
@NC State
Georgia Tech
@Duke
@Liberty

2022 Virginia Tech Football Predictions Tracker - Fans (7-4) (record based on W-L, not margin of victory)
Game	Fan Poll	Result	Score
@ODU	Hokies Win by 11+		ODU 20, Hokies 17
Boston College	Hokies Win by 1-10		Hokies 27, BC 10
Wofford	Hokies Win by 11+		Hokies 27, Wofford 7
WVU	Hokies Win by 1-10		WVU 33, Hokies 10
@UNC	UNC Wins by 11+		UNC 41, Hokies 10
@Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh Wins by 11+		Pittsburgh 45, Hokies 29
Miami	Hurricanes Win by 11+		Miami 20, Hokies 14
@NC State	Wolfpack Wins by 11+		NC State 22, Hokies 21
Georgia Tech	Hokies Win by 1-10		GT 28, Hokies 27
@Duke	Blue Devils Win by 11+		Duke 24, Hokies 7
@Liberty	Flames Win by 11+		Hokies 23, Flames 22