Bourbonstreet’s ACC Capsule: Week 7

MidSeason ACC Bowl projections:

1. ACC B.C.S. Orange Bowl representative (Jan. 2nd 2007) Klempson
2. Chik-Fil-A – Atlanta, GA (Dec. 30th , 2006) Georgia Tech
3. Gator – Jacksonville, FL (Jan. 1st, 2007) N.C. State
4. Champs Sports – Orlando, FL (Dec. 29th , 2006) Virginia Tech
5. Music City – Nashville, TN (Dec. 29th , 2006) Miami
6. Meineke Car Care – Charlotte, NC (Dec. 30th , 2006) Wake Forrest
7. Emerald – San Francisco, CA (Dec. 27th , 2006) Florida State
8. MPC Computers – Boise, ID (Dec. 31st , 2006) Boston College

Current ACC Standings:

ATLANTIC DIVISION
School	ACC	Overall
NC State	2-0	3-2
Clemson	3-1	5-1
Wake Forest	1-1	5-1
Boston College	1-1	4-1
Florida State	1-2	3-2
Maryland	0-1	3-2
COASTAL DIVISION
School	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	3-0	5-1
Virginia Tech	2-1	4-1
Miami	1-1	3-2
Virginia	1-1	2-4
North Carolina	0-3	1-4
Duke	0-3	0-5

This Week’s Games

Clemson-45.5 @ Temple O/U=54.5: (10.12, Thursday 7:30pm, ESPNU)

• CU strengths: 3rd Down Conversion%, 6th in Rushing Offense, 7th in Run
  Stopping, TFL/Sacks, Turnover Margin, Kickoff Returns.
• CU weaknesses: Proctor is cooling off a touch, a little more Passing,
  average FG kicking.
• TU strengths: Bill Cosby; ahhhh, errrr, they will have a conference
  affiliation next year.
• TU weaknesses: They still play football, and still owe us/VT from 1986.

Game Outlook:

Obviously Clemson was looking ahead to getting some national TV Jello Pudding
pops this week. Well, maybe not so much. As Temple has a homely 12 outta 17 unit
Rakings in triple-digits (100th or worse)! In fact, Temple’s best ranked unit
(Pass Defense) is a below average 72nd! But at least former Owls hoops Coach
Channey can “goon” Proctor if, I mean when, things get out of hand; and they
will. As Clemson has seven unit rankings in the single-digits. No matter how
they did it, coming back from 14 down on the road in a place you’ve not played
well recently is impressive. The Tigers nearly doubled-up the Demon-Deacs in
Total Yardage last week, so maybe this one was not so close after all. Temple’s
starting QB Adam DiMichele has a 2:7 Ratio the wrong way. IF the Tigers are
amped up, they may double that, as Klempson has scored more points than anyone
else has in the ACC by 72! (could be a look-ahead trap to GT here, ahhhh, it’s
still Temple right? nevermind)

Probability of upset=.0001%

Florida State-22 @ Duke O/U=42: (10.14, Saturday 1pm, Sun Sports
tape-delayed)

• FSU strengths: Run Defense, Pass Defense, TFL.
• FSU weaknesses: limited Offense, Special Teams, Offensive Line hurts,
  Turnover Margin.
• Duke strengths: Hoops, 25th in Rushing Defense, on their way to a perfect
  season.
• Duke weaknesses: dead last in Scoring Offense! Punt-game, next to dead
  last in protecting their QB.

Game Outlook:

Duke messed around and gave ‘Bama a scare for three Quarters last week,
primarily thanks to what just might be the 4th best ACC Defense right this very
moment. Duke now gets four straight Home Games, so maybe they will break thru
and finally get a W on 2006? But ‘Bama, FSU, then Miami is gonna gut this
Blue-Devil football team. FSU on the other hand may have given up the Coastal
Division for keeps last week at N.C. State. Doubling up the Wolfpac 20-10 and
coming from ahead to choke is not something that you often see from the
Seminoles, and 77 year old Brubaker Bowden is now drooling the drool of regret
on the pillow of remorse. It’s not that FSU is so good right now, but rather
that they are at Home and that should be enough to beat an ever-fatiguing and
further wearing down, then wearing out, Duke football Team. As the Blue-Devils’
only have 27 Total Points on all of 2006! It will take more than that to beat
Will’s favorite cowgirl’s favorite football team in Tallahassee folks. As
Duke QB Thaddeus Lewis has 150% more INTs than he has TDs. That’s a problem
when you travel, and that cost Duke any upsetting chance that they might have
had last week. FSU wins by an average of 37 in this series, I’ll take 10 off
of that.

Probability of upset=4%

Wake Forest+6.5 @ N.C. State O/U=38.5: (10.14, Saturday 12noon, Raycom/LFS)

• WF strengths: Punt game, Sacks/TFL, creative Running attack.
• WF weaknesses: Passing Offense, protecting their QB, FG kicking.
• NCS strengths: improved QB play, TFL, Sacks, protecting their QB, power
  Running.
• NCS weaknesses: 3rd Down Conversion%, 8th worst Turnover Margin, Punt
  Returns.

Game Outlook:

“Will the real N.C. State, please stand-up, please stand-up?” Are you the
football team that got worked by Akron then Southern Miss on back-to-back weeks?
Or the football team that upset two Ranked teams on back-to-back weeks? And to
borrow a phrase from the sport of kings: (Horse Racing), which describes a horse
coming off of a great Run last time out: will you bounce this week (play
poorly)???

Wake on the other hand nearly turned another trick on Klempson last week,
only to be beaten on two plays late in the game on their own field. This should
be a very good football game folks, but I do like State in their own crib, with
the extra days rest and preparation. I’m also concerned how the Demon-Deacs
will handle having their emotional 2006 bubble going “pop” last week? N.C.
State has vastly improved overall since Coach Chesty of the Elton John
sunglasses went to Daniel Evans as his starting QB. Evans is what I can only
describe as a smoother thrower, not a great one, but more of a pure passer than
Marcus Stone was. Evans appears to be the kinda kid whose light has gone on,
once he donned that starting QB’s protected yellow-jersey in practice. Wake
tends to be down before an OPEN week. I’ll go with that.

Probability of upset=38%

Florida International+28.5 @ Miami O/U=41: (10.14, Saturday 7pm, CSS
replayed)

• FIU strengths: 32nd in Total Defense, 1st best in TFL, very good Return
  teams.
• FIU weaknesses: Punting, Offense overall, Rushing in particular,
  protecting their QB.
• MiaFla strengths: 8th in Run Defense, 12th in Total Defense.
• MiaFla weaknesses: Return games, limited Offensive production, Discipline,
  putting out a full effort for Coach Corker or not???

Game Outlook:

Florida International is not a good football team folks, o-6 says so, but at
least they will not be tired or anything for having played s-e-v-e-n Over
Times last week! Yes, I looked it up, that’s a record (tied of course). It’s
tough for me to think that an Offense that has the #1 ranked QB, the #2 ranked
RB, and throws to the 11th and 28th ranked WRs (all outta High School) is this
un-dynamic??? That makes no sense whatsoever. So something is wrong internally
down on So.Beach folks. A few of the ESPN.com college football scribes have
thrown around the dreaded “Q-word” of late in association with this
Hurricane football team. Have they quit? I’m not so sure? Looks to me like
they still have a FSU and Louisville hang-over more than anything else. But
should they wish to have an outside chance at seeing FSU again, the time to
start improving is right now. I did see some signs of life vs. UNC last week.
But I need to see more of the old Miami swagger out of this bunch. I’m now
officially wondering if Uncle Festor (Coach Corker) has tightened the screws too
much in So.Beach? I’m not defending it; but the old ‘Cane mentality won a
lot of football games, and this appears to be a very talented football team that
is suffering from an identity crisis. Miami has two teams that combine for a
perfect 0-12 on the year to help them prep for their Coastal show-down game vs.
GT in 3 weeks.

Probability of an upset=7%

South Florida-4.5 @ North Carolina o/U=42.5: (10.14, Saturday 12noon,
ESPNU)

• SF strengths: very dynamic Offense, team-speed, 32nd Run Defense.
• SF weaknesses: Punting, Turnover Margin.
• UNC strengths: protecting their QB, and not much else.
• UNC weaknesses: next to last in Turnover Margin, 6th worst Rushing
  Defense, hoops team lost eight seniors.

Game Outlook:

Maybe the ACC can trade UNC for South Florida? That would be a bull market in
football at least. UNC QBs combined for an awful 33% day last week, and the
Tar-Heels have only topped 16 points vs. a lowly D-1AA team. South Florida on
the other hand is really only two plays away from being perfect on the year. I
like this game folks. As this Bulls football team is what I like to call: hidden
good. They have a very dynamic Pivot (QB) in one Matt Grothe, who is rapidly
closing in on 2000 yards of Total Offense in 2006, though the Season is only
half over. Think an impoverished mans MV2, but younger and more willing to Run.
The sorry big east got themselves a keeper in this So.Florida football team
folks, lottsa speed, lottsa athletes from the pan-handle State that are AAA or
less high-school ballers that the Big-3 in Florida overlook dot this Bulls
roster. In fact this Bulls roster only shows 12 seniors! That means this team
will be even better in 2007, and they are Bowling good right now. So.FLA by 10.

Probability of an upset=20%

Maryland-2.5 @ Virginia O/U=38.5: (10.12, Saturday, TBA)

• MU strengths: Kickoff Returns, big ole OLine, Punting.
• MU weaknesses: Turnover Margin, Rushing Defense, Scoring Offense.
• UVA strengths: Eiffel Tower, Arc de Triumph, Cabarets.
• UVA weaknesses: Zima, berets on men(s), Cosmos on the same.

Game Outlook:

Maryland did exactly what I thought they would do last week. They were
hanging and banging with GT right till the end, due to their extra prep time.
But they did get beat and only have three to four more winnable games left on
their 2006 docket. On the other hand, france did exactly what I expected last
week as well, saying “parlay” to the Pirates down in Steve Logan country,
otherwise know as Greenville, NC. The hoos, however, may only have one winnable
game after this. So this game is critical to both teams for 2006! Sam
Hollenbach has been average all year for the Terps, whereas Jameel Sewell has
been less than average for france. The Difference is that Hollenbach is a
senior, and Sewell is a freshman. That’s not getting a lotta mileage outta
your starting QB if you are the Big-Boy of Maryland. But this is building for
your future if you are Ally DeGroh of france. The french do have some chance
here, as the Terps have gotta be deflated a bit by last week’s game at Georgia
Tech. This is not an easy one to pick, but I’ll say Maryland wins a ho-hum
close game in paris, wearing the magnoit line down late. The Visitor has dropped
five straight in this series, but I’m calling for that streak to be broken.
Say 20-10.

Probability of an upset=38%

Virginia Tech-2.5 @ Boston College O/U=42.5: (10.12, Thursday 7:30pm,
ESPN)

• B.C. strengths: all upperclassman OLine, Athletic LBs (for a change),
  Penalties.
• B.C. weaknesses: Running game, Passing Defense, psych’ed out by VT (1-7
  in their last 8)? smallish Secondary.
• VT strengths: Secondary that gets Picks, Ore, WR’ing depth, LBs.
• VT weaknesses: interior front-Lines, Kickoff Returns, Penalties, 4th worst
  Time of Possession, Discipline.

Game Outlook:

We/VT have won seven of the last eight vs. B.C., and won 11 straight on
Thursday nights. But pure Passing QBs have given VT historic fits. This includes
the multi Coaching eras B.F. (before Frank). B.C.’s QB Matt Ryan is a
gun-slinger of a QB, but he is also one other thing. He is indeed: clutch! Matt
engineered three comebacks last year (Clemson, uva, & Wake), and has three
already on this year (Cent. Michigan, Klempson, & BYU). So even with VT in
the lead, this game is not out of Ryan’s reach. B.C. is not much on Running
the ball, but the Flying-Eagles do stop the Run fairly well, as their DTs
average a Jenny Craig unsavory 340-lbs! That’s a match-up problem sports fans.
This is one of only two Astroturf games for us/VT as well. Normally I pick us/VT
blind vs. B.C., jus’ like always playing vs. the Dealer when the House shows a
deuce on the Up-Card in Caribbean Stud Poker. I always pick us blind because of
our overall Speed edge in general and Defensive Speed in particular. Call it a
hunch, but I’m a bit (Timothy thereof) leery on this one. Getting Ellis and
Minor back is a necessity, and maybe I should have learned my lesson last-year,
but I’m changing this preseason VT win to B.C. 24, VT 24. OT! VT 30 B.C. 27.

Probability of an upset=K*4 (the spring-constant times four) or approximately
40%.

Official VT fb Prediction Poll results:
Week#1 winner: VT73!
Week#2 winners: Melbourne Hokie, Nat-Lite Hokie!
Week#3 winners: DeBord, collentownhokie!
Week#4 winner: Guy LeDouche!
Week#5 winner: gnosys!

OPEN Week#6 honorary winner: PHNC, for his EPIC design work!