Bourbonstreet’s ACC Capsule: Week 4

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B-street’s ACC rankings:

1. Klempson
2. Gah.Tech
2a VT
4. B.C.
5. FSU
6. Miami
7. Wake Forest
8. Maryland
9. UNC
10. N.C. State
vingt et un. (21.) france
177. Dork

Current ACC Standings

ATLANTIC DIVISION
School ACC Overall
Boston College 1-0 3-0
Wake Forest 1-0 3-0
Clemson 1-1 2-1
Florida State 1-1 2-1
Maryland 0-0 2-1
NC State 0-0 1-2
COASTAL DIVISION
School ACC Overall
Virginia Tech 2-0 3-0
Georgia Tech 0-0 2-1
Virginia 0-0 1-2
Miami 0-1 1-2
North Carolina 0-1 1-2
Duke 0-2 0-3

This Week’s Games


Rice+28 @ Florida State O/U=47.5
: (09.23, Saturday 3:30pm, ESPNU)

  • Rice strengths: Turnover Margin, Sacks/TFL, and not much else.
  • Rice weaknesses: Offense, Defense, protecting their QB, uniforms.
  • FSU strengths: Defense overall, Run Defense in particular, cowgirls.
  • FSU weaknesses: next to last Rushing Offense, Return-game, Sacks.

Game Outlook: No ‘Nole Offensive points scored in the 1st half three
games into 2006 tells you a lot about Florida State as a football team. Very
interesting to see how the once offensively mighty have fallen in the Sunshine
State in the past two seasons. But these are not your father’s Rice Owls. Gone
is the once formidable Rice wishbone rushing attack, as the Owls are attempting
to short-cut to success via converting into a passing team. The only problem is
that Rice is not a very good passing team, as all they currently field are
rushing oriented offensive-square-pegs. IF this FSU team’s ground attack is
ever going to develop, it will develop vs. the Owls run-stopping unit, which
allows a highly benevolent 243 yards on the ground. The Owls have given
significant playing time to 3 QB’s thus far in 2006, and should provide just
the get-well-soon entrée that the ‘Noles need to recover from last weeks
tigress upset.
Probability of upset=9%


Florida International+20.5 @ Maryland O/U=47.5
: (09.23, Saturday 6 pm,
TBA)

  • FIU strengths: Overall Defense, TFL/Sacks, Return teams, Coaching.
  • FIU weaknesses: Punting, Overall Offense, Turnover Margin, uniforms.
  • MU strengths: Punting, Pass Defense, Sacks/TFL, QB protection.
  • MU weaknesses: Turnover Margin, below average Offense and Defense overall.

Game Outlook: One thing I did like about Maryland last week was the Terps
showed some heart and played things out as best they could. In other words they
did not quit. But QB Sam Hollenbach is just so-so as D-1 QBs go. He’s not bad,
mind yah; but nor is he any good. Giving up 300+ on the ground is also a
problem. But FIU is not much as Florida schools go; though their sideline is
graced by a great Coach in former Hokie QB Don Strock. The Golden Panthers are
very thin on quality depth. You can see this in FIU having only been beaten by
5, by 1, and by 1 point on the year. FIU’s defense is actually pretty solid;
but their running game is nonexistent, and their punting game is even worse.
Maryland will be 3-1 after this game, and in overall terms, winning 75% of your
games is not all that bad. And don’t forget that the Terps have nine days to
prep this week.
Probability of upset=11%


Boston College-7.5 @ N.C. State O/U=41
: (09.23, Saturday 8 pm ESPN2)

  • BC strengths: Passing Offense, Ryan’s a winner, KO Returns.
  • BC weaknesses: where is the B.C. running game? Dead last in Pass Defense!
  • NCS strengths: Punting, negative yardage Defensive plays, Coaches
    bench-press.
  • NCS weaknesses: 3rd from last in Turnover Margin, Punt Returns, Offense.

Game Outlook: As I predicted B.C. struggled with BYU all day long, and
into two extra periods of play, before the Flying Eagles emerged as still being
perfect on 2006. Not very often can you ante up 500+ yards and win. But if the
Flying Eagle football team ever gets its ground game on track, look out! State
is in disarray and Chesty and his get out of town gang will soon see the first
www.FireEltonJohn’sSunglasses.com up and running in no time. Marcus Stone has
been awful at QB for State, and it could possibly be 2007 before this Wolfpack
football team wins another game. The only caveat here is that this B.C. football
team must be a decent amount worn down, both mentally and physically, by three
straight barn-burners to open 2006.
Probability of upset=20%


Wake Forest+3.5 @ Mississippi O/U=40
: (09.23, Saturday 6 pm, no TV)

  • WF strengths: Punting, Defense, Turnover Margin, Sacks/TFL.
  • WF weaknesses: Passing Offense, new QB, QB protection, KR returns.
  • Miss strengths: Rushing Offense, Special Teams, Sacks, historic flag.
  • Miss weaknesses: Passing Offense, Defense, Turnover Margin, unPC flag.

Game Outlook: Wake is out to a perfect start and I like their chances to
run (pun intended) out to 5-0. Wake QB Ben Mauk was not what I would have called
good; but he was what I would call serviceable, and his experience was not open
to debate. But a snapped wing and dislocating a shoulder all on the very same
arm means that Riley Skinner must play older than his rreshman label would
indicate if the wheels are to stay in place on the Wake Forest counter-rushing
attack. Interestingly Wake has been outgained in 8 of their last 10 games
played, but what I like here is the Deamon-Deac run-stopping unit compared to
the Rebels. As Ole` Miss has dropped 8 of their last 9 as the visitor; and their
QB Brent Schaeffer is a lousy 46% in pass completion percentage.
Probability of upset=22%


North Carolina+16 @ Clemson O/U=45.5
: (09.23, Saturday 12 noon, Raycom)

  • UNC strengths: QB Protection; Offense in general, Discipline.
  • UNC weaknesses: Run stopping unit, Punting, Turnover Margin.
  • CU strengths: Offensive balance, Overall Defense, 3rd Down Conversion%,
    Discipline.
  • CU weaknesses: LB health, TOP, Punting needs a little work.

Game Outlook: Be awares that this is a very good Klempson football team
folks. How good? 1st team I’ve tracked all year that is above average in all
17 Team Categories I track! In fact the Tigers only have two units ranked in the
50’s outta 119 D-1 Teams! My only concern here is that Klempson is prolly due
to bounce, after two tough roadies. But UNC QBs are bad for a near 1:2 TD/INT
ratio; while Clemson QB Proctor is nails, checking in at a very nifty 6:1 ratio.
That’s getting it done on an ACC Player of the Year kinda pace. UNC has been
outrushed by every team it has played thus far this year; I look for more of the
same this Saturday.
Probability of an upset=9%


Virginia+16 @ Georgia Tech O/U=39.5
: (09.21, Thursday 7:30 pm, ESPN)

  • UVA strengths: better than average Defense, Sacks, Special Teams play.
  • UVA weaknesses: 3rd worst Rushing-attack, Offense in general, 3rd Down
    Conversion%.
  • GT strengths: Ground-attack, Turnover Margin, 4th best QB protection.
  • GT weaknesses: Passing Offense, playing upfield on Defense, TOP.

Game Outlook: A bit of my kla-assic look-ahead trap-game here folks. But
I do like the Ramblin’ Wreck to win on a national TV Thursday night date.
France did not look good in any way shape or form vs. Western Michigan. 69 Yards
rushing is a real issue, just as playing musical QBs is. That shows desperation
on Al deGroh’s part; and “non”, Winston Churchill is not gonna bail you
frenchy’s out this year; comprenez? Reggie Ball was into his normal Tommy
Smothers yo-yo routine last week; with two majors completed to each team (2
Passing TDs & 2 INTs). But Reggie Ball sure ran well, rushing for a career
best buck-38 last week. Gah.Tech has a ground margin advantage of a whopping 212
Yards; tough to pick against that; and even tougher to pick the rusty Renault
tank battalion, as france rarely plays well on anyone else’s turf, much less
playing well itself.
Probability of an upset=18%.


Cincinnati+26 @ Virginia Tech 0/U=45.5
: (09.23, Saturday 12noon, ESPNU)

  • ‘Nati strengths: Defensive experience, Defensive big-plays, Offensive
    balance.
  • ‘Nati weaknesses: Smallish football team, worn down by Ohio State last
    week, Discipline.
  • VT strengths: Defense, Special-teams play, Sacks/TFL, 4th best QB
    protection, Red-Zone conversion%.
  • VT weaknesses: Middle OLine, limited RB depth, Fumbles, TOP=3rd worst,
    95th in Penalties.

Game Outlook: The Bearcat Defense was very unimpressive last week for a
stop unit that returns 10 starters and 20 players overall with starting
experience! Sneaky is my adjective for describing the ‘Nati. They play upfield
on Defense, and play a very solid game of field-positioning. I was there in the
rain all High-Teched out for the Bearcats last visit to Lane Stadium. They left
16-zip winners as #4, the 3rd string ‘Nati LB, stomped our midfield logo out
to end the game. Can the ‘Nati sneak up on Vah. Tech again? “Yes.” But
only if our Hokies help the Bearcats out with a -3 (or worse) turnover ratio.
The ‘Nati is relatively light on their o-line and defense on the whole. So I
expect the preparational-experiment know as Sean Glennon to continue, and this

one to be close for two, maybe three, quarters. Then we/VT will wear the ‘Nati
down, then we wear the ‘Nati out; as I expect a lotta Hokies to see Worsham
Field in an effort to remain healthy for the ACC meat of our schedule. VT=34,
Cincinnati=13.
Probability of an upset=(e^x)^2=or approximately 8%

Official VT FB prediction poll Results:
week#1 winner: VT73!
week#2 winners: Melbourne Hokie! Nat-Lite Hokie!
week#3 winners: DeBord & colletonhokie!

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