Bourbonstreet’s ACC Capsule: Week 2

Bstreet’s
ACC Standings:

ATLANTIC (conference, overall)
1. Florida State 1-0, 1-0
2. Clemson 0-0, 1-0
3. Maryland 0-0, 1-0
4. Boston College 0-0, 1-0
5. Wake Forest 0-0, 1-0
6. N.C. State 0-0, 1-0

COASTAL (conference, overall)
1. Virginia Tech 0-0, 1-0
2. Miami 0-1, 0-1
3. Georgia Tech 0-0, 0-1
4. North Carolina 0-0, 0-1
5. Virginia 0-0, 0-1
99. Duke 0-0, 0-1

Bstreet’s ACC WEEK #2 CAPSULE:

Clemson+1 @ Boston College O/U=41 : (09/09, Saturday 3:30pm, ABC)

• CU strengths: Team speed, Turnover forcing Defense, TFL/Sacks on Defense,
  Return-game, QB protection.
• CU weaknesses: Fumbling, PAT’s & FG’s were shaky, Punting, LB
  health.
• B.C. strengths: Dominated TOP, Passing efficiency, big frontlines.
• B.C. weaknesses: Ryan’s ankle, Running-game, inability to deal with
  speed, Pass defense.

Game Outlook: I had a hunch that BC was a bit overrated preseason. CMU
showed us as much. Ryan is a very nice college QB, but speed still kills the
Flying-Eagles big’ens on the LOS. Clemson has speed, a generous amount more
speed than CMU, mind you. How much more? 14 defensive points worth, and 12 stops
behind the LOS last week vs. Florida Atlantic. Clemson QB Will Proctor got
better as the game went along, though RB James Davis was coasting, trying to
preserve himself a bit. In short, Clemson was much better in the opening week,
because they will be the better football team all year.
Probability of an upset=40%

Troy State @ Florida State O/U=48 : (09/09, Saturday 6pm, FSN)

• TS strengths: solid Sun Belt OLine, solid overall D-1 Defense.
• TS weaknesses: Only 1 DLine starter returns, very limited Offense.
• FSU strengths: Leadership, excellent Linebacking, ‘Nole Defense plays in
  your backfield, 1/2-time adjustments.
• FSU weaknesses: Sustaining OLine Run blocking, play-making WR’s.

Game Outlook: Most teams that finish 24th in Total Defense prolly win
more than 4 games. But that’s all this Alabama school was good for last year.
Why? Because Troy is an impoverished man’s early Frank Beamer teams, as they put
all their talent on Defense, stripping their Offense to the bare bone. Does FSU
LB Buster Davis remind any of you of our own V. Hall? This FSU Defense is for
real, this FSU Offense needs to improve more than a little bit to beat Miami in
a rematch.
Probability of upset=2%.

Middle Tennessee State+20.5 @ Maryland O/U=42: (09/09, Saturday 6pm, no
TV)

• MTS strengths: Punting, attacking Defense.
• MTS weaknesses: Offense overall, Passing in particular, QB protection.
• MU strengths: Running attack/OLine, Punting, Protecting the QB, only 1
  Flag last week.
• MU weaknesses: Turnovers, Passing, Pass Defense.

Game Outlook: The Terps ran the ball really well last week, but QB Sam
Hollenbach was so-so, and backup Jordan Steffey was jus’ plain ole awful.
Maryland must hold onto the football, 3 Fumbles all forfeit, and 1 INT will not
cut it in ACC play. In fact, turnovers are what have killed Maryland the last 2
years. MTS struggled with a very poor Florida International, only eking out a 1
point home win. MTS did have a decent inflow of Ju-Co talent for a few years,
but that well looks all but tapped out right about now.
Probability of upset=7%

Akron+10.5 @ N.C. State O/U=43: (09/09, Saturday 12noon, ESPN2)

• AU strengths: Passing Offense, solid Defense, TFL, TOP.
• AU weaknesses: Punting, Running-game, QB protection.
• NCS strengths: Discipline was improved, running-game.
• NCS weaknesses: Passing-attack, 3rd down conversion%.

Game Outlook: Akron has been a dangerous passing team of late, and Luke
Getsey can throw that ball. 17 returning starters is not bad either, especially
when all 5 return on the Zips OLine, and 4 of them are Seniors. Akron must
protect Getsey better than they did last week up in Happy Valley. State must
establish some offensive balance in terms of their run vs. pass mix. Whoever
improves the most from week one will win this game. Though if Appy State can get
10 on NC State, Akron can chalk up even more.
Probability of upset=40%

Duke+21 @ Wake Forest O/U=39: (09/09, Saturday 12noon, Raycom)

• DU strengths: Held Richmond to 13? Ahhhhh? Errrrrrr? I give up.
• DU weaknesses: Rushing, predictability (only threw 6 Passes), football
  team in general.
• WF strengths: Ground-game, discipline, Time of Possession.
• WF weaknesses: Quality depth is lacking, Passing Offense, QB protection.

Game Outlook: Duke is 26th in Total Defense after getting upset by D-1AA
Richmond? Is H20 still wet? I guess nobody runs on a Christian Laettner press
conference either? This is a Wake win, the only issue here is by how much, and
how many yards Micah Andrews chews up on the ground (hint: he averaged 8.8 per
touch vs. the Blue Devils last year).
Probability of upset=5%

Samford @ Georgia Tech: (09/09, Saturday 3:30pm, no TV)

• SU strengths: Versatile/explosive Offense, attacking Defense.
• SU weaknesses: Punting, Turnovers, being overmatched as a D-1aa school.
• GT strengths: Johnson, Punting, playing upfield on Defense, Punt returns.
• GT weaknesses: 3rd down converts, TOP, Pass protection, Conditioning?

Game Outlook: Without Ball’s wheels GT would have only had 64 on the
Ground vs. ND, and Ball’s arm is not yet able to win week in and week out. I
expect the Yellow Jackets to be a bit flat this week as well, and Samford does
have some athletes. That will allow the Bulldogs to hang around for a Quarter or
two. But be aware that this is really only a .500 D-1AA football program. GT
beat Samford 28-7 two years ago; I expect more of the same this time around.
Probability of an upset=3%

Florida A&M @ Miami: (09/09, Saturday 7pm, TBA)

• FA&M strengths: aggressive style of Defensive play, Special Teams
  play.
• FA&M weaknesses: argyle jerseys, Penalties, Turnovers, graduation
  losses.
• MiaFla strengths: Mega Defensive speed! Run Defense, Secondary.
• MiaFla weaknesses: OLine (again), Monroe aims his Punts, badly missed
  Moss.

Game Outlook: A&M was blown out by both lesser Florida D-1 schools
they faced last year, but did manage to post a winning D-1AA record, via an up
and comer in one Head Coach Rubin Carter. But you have to go to the NFL to find
enough offensive speed to deal with this ‘Cane stop unit. Man-o-man they were
vicious Monday night. That was the most physical I’ve seen a ‘Cane Defense
bring it since the early 1990’s. QB Kyle Wright is pretty good when he gets
time, he will still force a few throws, but give him time to set his feet and he
can thread a needle with a nose-down dart. This team badly needs to get all its
ducks in a row. Suspensions, a second-half decrease in effort, all speak to a
lack of Leadership, &/or conditioning.
Probability of an upset=0.001%

Wyoming+9.5 @ Virginia O/U=46: (09/09, Saturday 3:30pm, TBA)

• WU strengths: Offensive balance, Rushing Defense, excellent Pass
  protection, ditto Punting.
• WU weaknesses: Program has slipped since 1999, uniforms, Secondary.
• UVA strengths: QVC needs males models too, Santi, TFL, ST’s play.
• UVA weaknesses: Passing Defense, 3rd down converts, sub 50% passing,
  Sitzkrieg of a ground-game, Time of Possession.

Game Outlook: Talk about balance; how does 241 thru the air, and 239 on
the ground strike yah? When Wyoming can do that and win by 31 with a -2 Turnover
Margin, that’s not a bad football team. No one has told this Wyoming bunch to
pack any white flags for their European Vacation. But it was the Cowboy defense
that really boggled me last week. Usually WU can shoot it out with the best of
them, but is not much as stop units go, but this Cowboy defense looks a bit
stouter than expected. Four returning OLine starters will take a real crack with
pincer style tactics at out flanking the Maginot Line. The UVA Defense really
needs work, as Palko’s bombs ate up all their brie, then emptied every single
Cosmo’ they had mixed last week. UVA was above average in only 6 outta 17
categories I track last week, et les cowboys ne parlais pas Français; (Cowboys
don’t speak French); and these Cowboys have a legit shot.
Probability of an upset=50%

Virginia Tech-10 @ North Carolina O/U=42: (09/09, Saturday 12noon, ESPN)

• VT strengths: Kick blocking, Punting, improved Offensive mix, Glennon as
  prepped as he can be.
• VT weaknesses: OLine health, DLine not as physical as in the past, KO
  returns.
• UNC strengths: McGill is healthy, nice Offensive balance, Kickoff returns,
  3rd Down converts.
• UNC weaknesses: Run-Defense, QB decision-making, Punt-game, 4th worst in
  Penalties, TOP.

Game Outlook: We Vah.Tech will win. BOOK THAT!!! And yes, we were looking
ahead to this game ourselves a bit last week. You can see that in 4.1/per on the
ground (much lower than my requested 6/per); and in giving up over 200 yards to
a D-1AA team (Duke only got 35 last year!) The good news is that RU ran rather
well on UNC last week. The bad news is that Frye’s injury negates VT’s best
ACC OLine vs. an opponents DLine match-up of the season, not named Duke. As UNC
is thin at DE, and pre Frye’s injury, VT had some strong starting OT’s.
Frank & Staff did a nice job of trying to prep Glennon as much as possible
for this game. A lot of you have already told me of your concerns for this week.
“Don’t worry, be Hokie” is my response. UNC’s run stopping fallacies
will be the perfect fit for a Frank Beamer GOP Offensive visiting game-plan. The
Hokies do need to improve from last week’s effort more than a slight amount,
no more grandstanding come this Saturday. Vince Hall in particular must get back
to being Vince Hall. But I expect one of our better efforts for 2006 down on
tobacco road. VT is 32-1 in September since 1995, make that 33-1 after Saturday.
VT=23, UNC=12.
Probability of an upset=9.81%

Official VT fb prediction poll Results:
week#1 winner: VT73!