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  1. #1

    Join Date
    November 23, 2004
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    "Boy, that escalated quickly. I mean that really got out of hand fast!" A few weeks

    from now, we will be repeating this famous Anchor Man line when talking about conference realignment.

    Despite what appears to be a very cloudy situation, I think a few things are in fact clearing up:

    * ND is driving the bus right now (see below).

    * ACC's "final plan for survival" appears to be an attempt to go to 16 or 18 by bringing in ND, Navy (a MUST to get ND), and some combination of Louisville, UConn, and/or Cinci. Obviously ND is the real prize here and could keep the ACC viable (even though it would basically be an ACC/Big East merger + ND), but it remains to be seen whether or not ND would be on board. I could see them going so far as demanding to define the football divisions and other concessions. Other than adding ND, this doesn't do much for football but it would be one *hell* of a basketball conference. But then again, it's really not about basketball so.....

    * We thought FSU was the linchpin of the ACC and would be the first one to break ranks, but that might not be the case at all. First, FSU is a very divided camp right now. One faction realizes that leaving the ACC for the Big 12 introduces some new risks, as there is some question about the Big 12's own stability/growth plans. IF the ACC gets ND in football, discussion over. If not, read on.....

    * If and when it becomes clear that ND is not gonna play ball with the ACC, The B1G and UNC take on a larger than life significance. You would see the B1G move very quickly to cherry pick the ACC. It could involve anyone or everyone, but obviously UNC and UVA have got to be the favorites. They would satisfy the contiguous state requirement (with MD now in) and also the AAU affiliation. Do they also bring GT and Duke? Maybe, maybe not. That would bring them up to 18 members. Then....

    * The *much* and long overhyped VT and NC St to the SEC speculation actually comes to fruition. Why? Politics. If UVA/UNC go B1G, Richmond and Raleigh need to know that there is a home for VT and NC St. This issue isn't going away. Anyone who thinks UVA/UNC aren't handcuffed is foolish. 2003 wasn't THAT long ago! Then....

    * The Big 12 picks up the pieces (some nice pieces, I might add), and brings in FSU, Clemson, and maybe even guys like Louisville, Cinci, UCF, USF, ECU, Navy, etc. if it so desires. A bit murky here, it basically becomes a new Conference USA but with much better quality at the top. Then....

    * If I haven't called your name, sorry.....no dessert for you! Conference USA/Big East 2.0 Lite. Could be guys like Pitt, Syracuse, Temple, Wake, Miami, Army, ODU, maybe some MAC guys, and anyone the Big 12 passed on. NOT a Big Boy table.

    The really interesting thing here is how frenetic the pace of discussions must be behind the scenes. Blink, and you might be left without a chair when the music stops. There's no question it is the ACC vs. the Big 12. And like I said, ND is driving. ACC as we know it either survives or folds based on what the Domers decide to do. Not exactly a pretty thought.

    This whole thing has turned into an all-out arms race. And that's why I think you will see things happen very quickly over the coming days and weeks. ACC wants to survive. B1G wants some NC, VA exposure. So does SEC. Big 12 wants to achieve legitimacy by adding high quality teams. But everyone can't get what they want at the same time. There is immense pressure to not get beaten to the punch by someone else and thus be rendered irrelevant almost instantly. It's like every man for themselves, except it's not since politics will be involved. That's why you've got to believe that, despite the speed at which things appear to be happening, there are handshake agreements in place (certainly between VT/UVA and UNC/NC St, and FSU/Clemson is probably another bloc) to prevent all hell from breaking loose.....even though it appears as though that is exactly what's happening.

    Anyhoo, just my $0.02. This should be entertaining, to say the least. I remain very worried over the real possibility that VT will find itself faced with a choice of Big 12 or ACC/Big East 2.0. IF in fact VT had a legitimate offer from the SEC during the last round (or even after) and turned it down, well, I hate to say it, but then we almost deserve whatever fate we get. And it would be an epic failure on the part of the VT administration (to repeat, only IF a real invite was on the table). Unfortunately, you have to be forward looking in this business (and it is a business, as everyone should plainly and painfully be aware of by now). It was as clear as day 2 years ago that the tectonic plates were shifting in response to an evolving cable network model. Early movers like Colorado, Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Missouri deserve a lot of credit for recognizing this and taking action. Certain other schools and certain conference administrators.....not so much.

  2. #2

    Join Date
    August 08, 2003
    Posts
    279
    Agree it hinges on ND...AND I think their decision hinges on their perception of what happens with the playoff....

    if they think it stays at four teams they could find themselves locked out (say with two undefeated and two, one loss conference champs against a one loss ND)...then they join a conference for access

    if they think the playoff will expand to say 8 teams, they stay indy with good chance of getting in any time the are close to good...

  3. #3

    Join Date
    October 08, 1999
    Posts
    10,376
    After this season there is no way that ND is joining The ACC for Football.
    Quote Originally Posted by HolidayInnHokie View Post
    from now, we will be repeating this famous Anchor Man line when talking about conference realignment.

    Despite what appears to be a very cloudy situation, I think a few things are in fact clearing up:

    * ND is driving the bus right now (see below).

    * ACC's "final plan for survival" appears to be an attempt to go to 16 or 18 by bringing in ND, Navy (a MUST to get ND), and some combination of Louisville, UConn, and/or Cinci. Obviously ND is the real prize here and could keep the ACC viable (even though it would basically be an ACC/Big East merger + ND), but it remains to be seen whether or not ND would be on board. I could see them going so far as demanding to define the football divisions and other concessions. Other than adding ND, this doesn't do much for football but it would be one *hell* of a basketball conference. But then again, it's really not about basketball so.....

    * We thought FSU was the linchpin of the ACC and would be the first one to break ranks, but that might not be the case at all. First, FSU is a very divided camp right now. One faction realizes that leaving the ACC for the Big 12 introduces some new risks, as there is some question about the Big 12's own stability/growth plans. IF the ACC gets ND in football, discussion over. If not, read on.....

    * If and when it becomes clear that ND is not gonna play ball with the ACC, The B1G and UNC take on a larger than life significance. You would see the B1G move very quickly to cherry pick the ACC. It could involve anyone or everyone, but obviously UNC and UVA have got to be the favorites. They would satisfy the contiguous state requirement (with MD now in) and also the AAU affiliation. Do they also bring GT and Duke? Maybe, maybe not. That would bring them up to 18 members. Then....

    * The *much* and long overhyped VT and NC St to the SEC speculation actually comes to fruition. Why? Politics. If UVA/UNC go B1G, Richmond and Raleigh need to know that there is a home for VT and NC St. This issue isn't going away. Anyone who thinks UVA/UNC aren't handcuffed is foolish. 2003 wasn't THAT long ago! Then....

    * The Big 12 picks up the pieces (some nice pieces, I might add), and brings in FSU, Clemson, and maybe even guys like Louisville, Cinci, UCF, USF, ECU, Navy, etc. if it so desires. A bit murky here, it basically becomes a new Conference USA but with much better quality at the top. Then....

    * If I haven't called your name, sorry.....no dessert for you! Conference USA/Big East 2.0 Lite. Could be guys like Pitt, Syracuse, Temple, Wake, Miami, Army, ODU, maybe some MAC guys, and anyone the Big 12 passed on. NOT a Big Boy table.

    The really interesting thing here is how frenetic the pace of discussions must be behind the scenes. Blink, and you might be left without a chair when the music stops. There's no question it is the ACC vs. the Big 12. And like I said, ND is driving. ACC as we know it either survives or folds based on what the Domers decide to do. Not exactly a pretty thought.

    This whole thing has turned into an all-out arms race. And that's why I think you will see things happen very quickly over the coming days and weeks. ACC wants to survive. B1G wants some NC, VA exposure. So does SEC. Big 12 wants to achieve legitimacy by adding high quality teams. But everyone can't get what they want at the same time. There is immense pressure to not get beaten to the punch by someone else and thus be rendered irrelevant almost instantly. It's like every man for themselves, except it's not since politics will be involved. That's why you've got to believe that, despite the speed at which things appear to be happening, there are handshake agreements in place (certainly between VT/UVA and UNC/NC St, and FSU/Clemson is probably another bloc) to prevent all hell from breaking loose.....even though it appears as though that is exactly what's happening.

    Anyhoo, just my $0.02. This should be entertaining, to say the least. I remain very worried over the real possibility that VT will find itself faced with a choice of Big 12 or ACC/Big East 2.0. IF in fact VT had a legitimate offer from the SEC during the last round (or even after) and turned it down, well, I hate to say it, but then we almost deserve whatever fate we get. And it would be an epic failure on the part of the VT administration (to repeat, only IF a real invite was on the table). Unfortunately, you have to be forward looking in this business (and it is a business, as everyone should plainly and painfully be aware of by now). It was as clear as day 2 years ago that the tectonic plates were shifting in response to an evolving cable network model. Early movers like Colorado, Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Missouri deserve a lot of credit for recognizing this and taking action. Certain other schools and certain conference administrators.....not so much.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by HolidayInnHokie View Post
    from now, we will be repeating this famous Anchor Man line when talking about conference realignment.

    Despite what appears to be a very cloudy situation, I think a few things are in fact clearing up:

    * ND is driving the bus right now (see below).

    * ACC's "final plan for survival" appears to be an attempt to go to 16 or 18 by bringing in ND, Navy (a MUST to get ND), and some combination of Louisville, UConn, and/or Cinci. Obviously ND is the real prize here and could keep the ACC viable (even though it would basically be an ACC/Big East merger + ND), but it remains to be seen whether or not ND would be on board. I could see them going so far as demanding to define the football divisions and other concessions. Other than adding ND, this doesn't do much for football but it would be one *hell* of a basketball conference. But then again, it's really not about basketball so.....

    * We thought FSU was the linchpin of the ACC and would be the first one to break ranks, but that might not be the case at all. First, FSU is a very divided camp right now. One faction realizes that leaving the ACC for the Big 12 introduces some new risks, as there is some question about the Big 12's own stability/growth plans. IF the ACC gets ND in football, discussion over. If not, read on.....

    * If and when it becomes clear that ND is not gonna play ball with the ACC, The B1G and UNC take on a larger than life significance. You would see the B1G move very quickly to cherry pick the ACC. It could involve anyone or everyone, but obviously UNC and UVA have got to be the favorites. They would satisfy the contiguous state requirement (with MD now in) and also the AAU affiliation. Do they also bring GT and Duke? Maybe, maybe not. That would bring them up to 18 members. Then....

    * The *much* and long overhyped VT and NC St to the SEC speculation actually comes to fruition. Why? Politics. If UVA/UNC go B1G, Richmond and Raleigh need to know that there is a home for VT and NC St. This issue isn't going away. Anyone who thinks UVA/UNC aren't handcuffed is foolish. 2003 wasn't THAT long ago! Then....

    * The Big 12 picks up the pieces (some nice pieces, I might add), and brings in FSU, Clemson, and maybe even guys like Louisville, Cinci, UCF, USF, ECU, Navy, etc. if it so desires. A bit murky here, it basically becomes a new Conference USA but with much better quality at the top. Then....

    * If I haven't called your name, sorry.....no dessert for you! Conference USA/Big East 2.0 Lite. Could be guys like Pitt, Syracuse, Temple, Wake, Miami, Army, ODU, maybe some MAC guys, and anyone the Big 12 passed on. NOT a Big Boy table.

    The really interesting thing here is how frenetic the pace of discussions must be behind the scenes. Blink, and you might be left without a chair when the music stops. There's no question it is the ACC vs. the Big 12. And like I said, ND is driving. ACC as we know it either survives or folds based on what the Domers decide to do. Not exactly a pretty thought.

    This whole thing has turned into an all-out arms race. And that's why I think you will see things happen very quickly over the coming days and weeks. ACC wants to survive. B1G wants some NC, VA exposure. So does SEC. Big 12 wants to achieve legitimacy by adding high quality teams. But everyone can't get what they want at the same time. There is immense pressure to not get beaten to the punch by someone else and thus be rendered irrelevant almost instantly. It's like every man for themselves, except it's not since politics will be involved. That's why you've got to believe that, despite the speed at which things appear to be happening, there are handshake agreements in place (certainly between VT/UVA and UNC/NC St, and FSU/Clemson is probably another bloc) to prevent all hell from breaking loose.....even though it appears as though that is exactly what's happening.

    Anyhoo, just my $0.02. This should be entertaining, to say the least. I remain very worried over the real possibility that VT will find itself faced with a choice of Big 12 or ACC/Big East 2.0. IF in fact VT had a legitimate offer from the SEC during the last round (or even after) and turned it down, well, I hate to say it, but then we almost deserve whatever fate we get. And it would be an epic failure on the part of the VT administration (to repeat, only IF a real invite was on the table). Unfortunately, you have to be forward looking in this business (and it is a business, as everyone should plainly and painfully be aware of by now). It was as clear as day 2 years ago that the tectonic plates were shifting in response to an evolving cable network model. Early movers like Colorado, Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Missouri deserve a lot of credit for recognizing this and taking action. Certain other schools and certain conference administrators.....not so much.
    If it hinges on us joining in full than the ACC is toast.

  5. #5
    Edgeman's Avatar
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    January 05, 2001
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    Quote Originally Posted by domer1978 View Post
    If it hinges on us joining in full than the ACC is toast.
    Yep. The ACC will collapse, and you'll have your non-revenue sports in whatever's left of the ACC/BE. That means ND will have played the key role of destroying two conferences...and counting.
    "You start a conversation you can't even finish it
    You're talkin' a lot, but you're not sayin' anything
    When I have nothing to say, my lips are sealed
    Say something once, why say it again?"
    - David Byrne

  6. #6

    Join Date
    January 05, 2005
    Posts
    4,470
    Does anyone have some grape jelly?

    Quote Originally Posted by domer1978 View Post
    If it hinges on us joining in full than the ACC is toast.

  7. #7

    Join Date
    August 08, 2003
    Posts
    279
    Yes, based on this year. But this year, and the last 15-20 bad years, have been anomalies. ND historically is a very good team...not usually undefeated, but not as bad as the previous 15-20 years. Is "very good" enough to knock one of the 4 big boy conference champs out of the semifinal game often enough for ND fans?

    Quote Originally Posted by VamPIre Turkey View Post
    After this season there is no way that ND is joining The ACC for Football.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by domer1978 View Post
    If it hinges on us joining in full than the ACC is toast.
    Pretty much.
    No trees were harmed in the making of this post. However, billions of electrons were horribly inconvenienced.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by SkyHokie View Post
    Does anyone have some grape jelly?
    Yes, but forget your toast. It's much better on this...

    No trees were harmed in the making of this post. However, billions of electrons were horribly inconvenienced.

  10. #10

    Join Date
    September 10, 2006
    Posts
    21
    Great take on this.
    Quote Originally Posted by HolidayInnHokie View Post
    from now, we will be repeating this famous Anchor Man line when talking about conference realignment.

    Despite what appears to be a very cloudy situation, I think a few things are in fact clearing up:

    * ND is driving the bus right now (see below).

    * ACC's "final plan for survival" appears to be an attempt to go to 16 or 18 by bringing in ND, Navy (a MUST to get ND), and some combination of Louisville, UConn, and/or Cinci. Obviously ND is the real prize here and could keep the ACC viable (even though it would basically be an ACC/Big East merger + ND), but it remains to be seen whether or not ND would be on board. I could see them going so far as demanding to define the football divisions and other concessions. Other than adding ND, this doesn't do much for football but it would be one *hell* of a basketball conference. But then again, it's really not about basketball so.....

    * We thought FSU was the linchpin of the ACC and would be the first one to break ranks, but that might not be the case at all. First, FSU is a very divided camp right now. One faction realizes that leaving the ACC for the Big 12 introduces some new risks, as there is some question about the Big 12's own stability/growth plans. IF the ACC gets ND in football, discussion over. If not, read on.....

    * If and when it becomes clear that ND is not gonna play ball with the ACC, The B1G and UNC take on a larger than life significance. You would see the B1G move very quickly to cherry pick the ACC. It could involve anyone or everyone, but obviously UNC and UVA have got to be the favorites. They would satisfy the contiguous state requirement (with MD now in) and also the AAU affiliation. Do they also bring GT and Duke? Maybe, maybe not. That would bring them up to 18 members. Then....

    * The *much* and long overhyped VT and NC St to the SEC speculation actually comes to fruition. Why? Politics. If UVA/UNC go B1G, Richmond and Raleigh need to know that there is a home for VT and NC St. This issue isn't going away. Anyone who thinks UVA/UNC aren't handcuffed is foolish. 2003 wasn't THAT long ago! Then....

    * The Big 12 picks up the pieces (some nice pieces, I might add), and brings in FSU, Clemson, and maybe even guys like Louisville, Cinci, UCF, USF, ECU, Navy, etc. if it so desires. A bit murky here, it basically becomes a new Conference USA but with much better quality at the top. Then....

    * If I haven't called your name, sorry.....no dessert for you! Conference USA/Big East 2.0 Lite. Could be guys like Pitt, Syracuse, Temple, Wake, Miami, Army, ODU, maybe some MAC guys, and anyone the Big 12 passed on. NOT a Big Boy table.

    The really interesting thing here is how frenetic the pace of discussions must be behind the scenes. Blink, and you might be left without a chair when the music stops. There's no question it is the ACC vs. the Big 12. And like I said, ND is driving. ACC as we know it either survives or folds based on what the Domers decide to do. Not exactly a pretty thought.

    This whole thing has turned into an all-out arms race. And that's why I think you will see things happen very quickly over the coming days and weeks. ACC wants to survive. B1G wants some NC, VA exposure. So does SEC. Big 12 wants to achieve legitimacy by adding high quality teams. But everyone can't get what they want at the same time. There is immense pressure to not get beaten to the punch by someone else and thus be rendered irrelevant almost instantly. It's like every man for themselves, except it's not since politics will be involved. That's why you've got to believe that, despite the speed at which things appear to be happening, there are handshake agreements in place (certainly between VT/UVA and UNC/NC St, and FSU/Clemson is probably another bloc) to prevent all hell from breaking loose.....even though it appears as though that is exactly what's happening.

    Anyhoo, just my $0.02. This should be entertaining, to say the least. I remain very worried over the real possibility that VT will find itself faced with a choice of Big 12 or ACC/Big East 2.0. IF in fact VT had a legitimate offer from the SEC during the last round (or even after) and turned it down, well, I hate to say it, but then we almost deserve whatever fate we get. And it would be an epic failure on the part of the VT administration (to repeat, only IF a real invite was on the table). Unfortunately, you have to be forward looking in this business (and it is a business, as everyone should plainly and painfully be aware of by now). It was as clear as day 2 years ago that the tectonic plates were shifting in response to an evolving cable network model. Early movers like Colorado, Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Missouri deserve a lot of credit for recognizing this and taking action. Certain other schools and certain conference administrators.....not so much.

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