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  1. #21
    DeBord's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by domer1978 View Post
    broken in to becoming full time members.

    I just read that the ACC is actually going to be making a large portion of our schedule. The ACC is going to tell us who we have to play and this is the first time in over 125 yrs of football that this will happen.

    In less then 10 yrs we will be full members.
    JMHO, but I'm guessing ND will be full members in less than 5 years. Five years is forever the way things have been changing in just the past couple of years.
    He who expecteth nothin ain't gonna be deceived.

  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by BUGGZY View Post
    that NBC deal is also 8 years old. look at what TV deals have done over the past 3 years alone...they are skyrocketing. that NBC deal also gives NBC no cable broadcasts (ESPN has already realized that they make more money on ESPN than they do on ABC which is why they moved MNF to cable) and no content from Jan-March when there is no football.

    If/when ND re-ups with NBC, look for NBC to be paying them ~$25-30MM/year for 7 games, and that will likely run through to 2024 season to align with the playoff contract(s).

    ESPN knows they are underpaying the ACC for the markets we blanket, but at the same time, we're the unlucky ones who signed a bad deal in a depressed market before anyone else's TV deals came up. i think we easily get $1MM more per team, possibly more, and we may even pull some rights back to launch an ACC network, or simply demand ESPN launch one with the rights they already have.

    the ultimate win in all of this would be to demand the ACC get 1 home game per team back to either support the launch of a network or to give back to each school to bundle themselves, but i'm not holding my breath.
    There is no way NBC is going to pay $30 million for 7 ND games. But even if they do, ESPN has no incentive whatsoever to get anywhere near that price given what they've already agreed to pay for the ACC's other games. They are still holding all of the cards in negotiations. $1 million more per team per year is not completely out of left field but I would be shocked if we get anywhere near $2 million per team per year.

  3. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by Benhokio View Post
    There is no way NBC is going to pay $30 million for 7 ND games. But even if they do, ESPN has no incentive whatsoever to get anywhere near that price given what they've already agreed to pay for the ACC's other games. They are still holding all of the cards in negotiations. $1 million more per team per year is not completely out of left field but I would be shocked if we get anywhere near $2 million per team per year.
    And even if NBC paid $30M / game that is still valuing a national broadcast ND game at $4.28M. So if ESPN thought it was worth similar, that's about $10M / year for 2.5 games on average. Or about $715k for each ACC team each year. Figure the basketball games bring that up to $1M / team. And that's best case. I think it's unlikely NBC goes $30M for 7 games.


    After subtracting out whatever revenue ND is going to get from the non-BCS bowl payout, I suspect we're in the $500 - $750k per year range. Still not bad, but not near the $2M being tossed around.
    Last edited by VTGolfer; Fri Sep 14 2012 at 12:37 PM.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by VTGolfer View Post

    And even if NBC paid $30M / game that is still valuing a national broadcast ND game at $4.28M. So if ESPN thought it was worth similar, that's about $10M / year for 2.5 games on average. Or about $715k for each ACC team each year. Figure the basketball games bring that up to $1M / team. And that's best case. I think it's unlikely NBC goes $30M for 7 games.

    After subtracting out whatever revenue ND is going to get from the non-BCS bowl payout, I suspect we're in the $500 - $750k per year range. Still not bad, but not near the $2M being tossed around.
    Its not just the games its the markets that this opens for ESPN. Chicago, Boston, and NYC are the three htobeds for ND alum along with a couple other major markets. ND is a national brand that gives ESPN viewers it wouldn't have had otherwise. That is huge. Its not just the football stuff but extra viewers for mens lax that is an East Coast sport but now picks up a midwest viewership. Its basketball that even when ND plays us on ESPN3 gets viewers because its ND. People forget that even when ND is down they are the second most valuable college sports brand in the nation. Despite being a tiny school compared to some others they sell more gear than most anyone would epxcet. They are a big dog when it comes to money.

    The numbers being thrown around by TV peeps regarding NDs TV stuff is 20-22 million. I odn't think they are going to get the ACC but we will get a bump in pay from them a considerable bump and they will be fulltimers sooner rather than later.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by VTGolfer View Post
    And even if NBC paid $30M / game that is still valuing a national broadcast ND game at $4.28M. So if ESPN thought it was worth similar, that's about $10M / year for 2.5 games on average. Or about $715k for each ACC team each year. Figure the basketball games bring that up to $1M / team. And that's best case. I think it's unlikely NBC goes $30M for 7 games.


    After subtracting out whatever revenue ND is going to get from the non-BCS bowl payout, I suspect we're in the $500 - $750k per year range. Still not bad, but not near the $2M being tossed around.
    when you consider the ACC gets ~$2.11M per home game from ESPN (figuring 6.5 home games per team, 14 teams = 91 games, 80% of $240M is football), i don't think ND getting $4.28M is out of the question at all. when within those 91 games for the ACC, you consider half entail dook, wake, 'cuse, BC, umd, uva, Pitt, NCSU, etc (all nice regional brands, but compare to ND, FSU, Miami and even VT for the past 10+ years), you can easily figure the latter brands are worth $3M+ per game vs the former being valued at closer to $1M per game. the more i think about it, the more i think ND will easily demand $30M/year.
    "This no more resembles that than something unlike something else resembles that." - Loosely quoting PHNC

  6. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by SWEETPEA 05 View Post
    Its not just the games its the markets that this opens for ESPN. Chicago, Boston, and NYC are the three htobeds for ND alum along with a couple other major markets. ND is a national brand that gives ESPN viewers it wouldn't have had otherwise. That is huge. Its not just the football stuff but extra viewers for mens lax that is an East Coast sport but now picks up a midwest viewership. Its basketball that even when ND plays us on ESPN3 gets viewers because its ND. People forget that even when ND is down they are the second most valuable college sports brand in the nation. Despite being a tiny school compared to some others they sell more gear than most anyone would epxcet. They are a big dog when it comes to money.

    The numbers being thrown around by TV peeps regarding NDs TV stuff is 20-22 million. I odn't think they are going to get the ACC but we will get a bump in pay from them a considerable bump and they will be fulltimers sooner rather than later.
    Right .. you're $22M number means the bump to each ACC team is in the $500-750K range to each school. Not the $2M that is being tossed around willy nilly. That's all I'm saying.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by VTGolfer View Post

    Right .. you're $22M number means the bump to each ACC team is in the $500-750K range to each school. Not the $2M that is being tossed around willy nilly. That's all I'm saying.
    That is just the football. I think we probably see about 1 million to 1.25 million total bump per team based on it. The added national exposure they bring is good for ESPN. Swofford and them know what the deal is money wise though because there is no way you do this without talking to someone about it first.

    NBC only gets them for football we get a portion of football and the rest of them.

  8. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by BUGGZY View Post
    when you consider the ACC gets ~$2.11M per home game from ESPN (figuring 6.5 home games per team, 14 teams = 91 games, 80% of $240M is football), i don't think ND getting $4.28M is out of the question at all. when within those 91 games for the ACC, you consider half entail dook, wake, 'cuse, BC, umd, uva, Pitt, NCSU, etc (all nice regional brands, but compare to ND, FSU, Miami and even VT for the past 10+ years), you can easily figure the latter brands are worth $3M+ per game vs the former being valued at closer to $1M per game. the more i think about it, the more i think ND will easily demand $30M/year.
    Those numbers are off for a number of reasons. ESPN has the rights to broadcast ALL ACC games, not just the home games. Also, you're double counting conference games. ESPN has rights to 63 ACC conference games (14 teams * 9 games / 2) and 42 non-conference games (14 teams * 3 games) for a total of 105 games. So they are paying $192 million (80% of $240 million) for 105 games or $1.82 million per game on average. $4.28 million is a huge number and would still only net the ACC $10.7 million per year if ESPN matched it. In order to get to $28 million ($2 million per team) per year, the basketball piece would have to be worth $17.3 million. Considering that ESPN is paying only $48 million (20% * $240 million) to broadcast roughly 420 basketball games (14 teams * 30 games), why would it pay $17.3 million more for Notre Dame's 30 games (especially considering that UNC/Duke's 60 games are already included in the ACC's totals).

  9. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by Benhokio View Post
    Those numbers are off for a number of reasons. ESPN has the rights to broadcast ALL ACC games, not just the home games. Also, you're double counting conference games. ESPN has rights to 63 ACC conference games (14 teams * 9 games / 2) and 42 non-conference games (14 teams * 3 games) for a total of 105 games. So they are paying $192 million (80% of $240 million) for 105 games or $1.82 million per game on average. $4.28 million is a huge number and would still only net the ACC $10.7 million per year if ESPN matched it. In order to get to $28 million ($2 million per team) per year, the basketball piece would have to be worth $17.3 million. Considering that ESPN is paying only $48 million (20% * $240 million) to broadcast roughly 420 basketball games (14 teams * 30 games), why would it pay $17.3 million more for Notre Dame's 30 games (especially considering that UNC/Duke's 60 games are already included in the ACC's totals).
    Exactly. I don't understand if people don't get the math, or if they feel compelled to defend the "ND to ACC is a financial win" mantra at all costs.

    It will be a marginal financial win. There is no way it's going to be a multi-million dollar win. The numbers simply don't work.

  10. #30

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    Come on in, the water is fine.

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