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  1. #1
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    Lightbulb "Who is passing us by" 2014 edition

    As we are currently stuck on the road to nowhere, the talk of NCAA bids around VT has been lacking the past 2.5 years. However, that doesn't mean the postseason stops for everyone!

    As members of the "8 NCAA bids" club for almost 7 years now, we've come to be gracious hosts of the programs who briefly stop at our eternal way station on their path to bigger and better things. Last year we had to bid farewell to three schools (Pacific, San Diego State, and Iona who was in part propelled by Lamont "Momo" Jones) and welcome four new schools to our not-so-lofty perch in college basketball: Saint Mary's, Saint Louis, Valparaiso (Ben Boggs), and Southern.

    In a couple months we'll go through the process again! Let's see who might be leaving us:

    Trying to Move On

    Saint Mary's Gaels
    Record: 11-4 (2-1)
    RPI: 33
    SOS: 42
    Top wins: North Dakota State, 20 (home); Boise State, 40 (away)
    Bad losses: none (though GMU might slide to sub-150 before long)

    Saint Mary's ran off a 9-0 record before losing three straight in the Diamond Head Classic. They have made the last three NCAA tournaments. However, their streak might come to an end in the next couple years as the NCAA recently upheld sanctions against their program for recruiting violations (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...espnapi_public). They only have four top 100 games remaining, but three are in the top 25 (BYU x2, Gonzaga). They have a reasonable shot at getting their 9th NCAA bid before sanctions take effect.


    Saint Louis Billikens
    Record: 13-2 (0-0)
    RPI: 50
    SOS: 168
    Top wins: none
    Bad losses: none
    Saint Louis kept their RPI respectable but failed to convert opportunities against Wisconsin or Wichita State. Their SOS is high but the A-10 conference slate should bring that number down. Their fate is going to be determined by their conference play, which has become easier since Xavier and Butler both left the conference prior to this season. Saint Louis' NCAA bid last year was the first since 1971.

    Auto-bid or bust:
    Auburn
    Bradley
    Rhode Island
    South Alabama
    South Carolina
    Southern
    Valparaiso
    Last edited by RapmasterAC; Mon Jan 06 2014 at 04:45 PM.

  2. #2

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    St. Mary's is in very good shape, at least as good as a team in their position in the WCC can be at this time of the year.

    Given Frank Martin's track record. I would expect that USC will be passing us by soon enought.

    Quote Originally Posted by RapmasterAC View Post
    As we are currently stuck on the road to nowhere, the talk of NCAA bids around VT has been lacking the past 2.5 years. However, that doesn't mean the postseason stops for everyone!

    As members of the "8 NCAA bids" club for almost 7 years now, we've come to be gracious hosts of the programs who briefly stop at our eternal way station on their path to bigger and better things. Last year we had to bid farewell to three schools (Pacific, San Diego State, and Iona who was in part propelled by Lamont "Momo" Jones) and welcome four new schools to our not-so-lofty perch in college basketball: Saint Mary's, Saint Louis, Valparaiso (Ben Boggs), and Southern.

    In a couple months we'll go through the process again! Let's see who might be leaving us:

    Trying to Move On

    Saint Mary's Gaels
    Record: 11-4 (2-1)
    RPI: 33
    SOS: 42
    Top wins: (North Dakota State, 20; Boise State, 40)
    Bad losses: none (though GMU might slide to sub-150 before long)

    Saint Mary's ran off a 9-0 record before losing three straight in the Diamond Head Classic. They have made the last three NCAA tournaments. However, their streak might come to an end in the next couple years as the NCAA recently upheld sanctions against their program for recruiting violations (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...espnapi_public). They only have four top 100 games remaining, but three are in the top 25 (BYU x2, Gonzaga). They have a reasonable shot at getting their 9th NCAA bid before sanctions take effect.


    Saint Louis
    Record: 13-2 (0-0)
    RPI: 50
    SOS: 168
    Top wins: none
    Bad losses: none
    Saint Louis kept their RPI respectable but failed to convert opportunities against Wisconsin or Wichita State. Their SOS is high but the A-10 conference slate should bring that number down. Their fate is going to be determined by their conference play, which has become easier since Xavier and Butler both left the conference prior to this season. Saint Louis' NCAA bid last year was the first since 1971.

    Auto-bid or bust:
    Auburn
    Bradley
    Rhode Island
    South Alabama
    South Carolina
    Southern
    Valparaiso

  3. #3
    RapmasterAC's Avatar
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    We also have a couple candidates to administer the secret rites to once they get that official 8th NCAA bid!

    I Call Top Bunk
    #9 Baylor Bears
    Record: 12-1 (0-0)
    RPI: 17
    SOS: 68
    Top wins: Colorado, 7 (neutral); Kentucky, 18 (home); Dayton, 34 (neutral)
    Bad losses: none

    Baylor is a top 10 team with its lone loss a neutral site game against Syracuse. Minus something crazy happening in conference play, you'll see them in March Madness.


    #23 Massachusetts Minutemen
    Record: 12-1
    RPI: 5
    SOS: 13
    Top wins: BYU, 34 (neutral); New Mexico, 37 (neutral)
    Bad losses: none

    UMass took care of business out of conference, with their highlight being a win over then #19 New Mexico on a neutral floor. Their RPI and SOS numbers will come down as they play A-10 ball, but currently they have the best record in their conference.


    In the Running
    Minnesota Golden Gophers
    Record: 12-3 (1-1)
    RPI: 58
    SOS: 62
    Top wins: none
    Bad losses: none

    Minnesota has had a pedestrian season so far. Their biggest win was a home win against FSU, who is outside the top 50. However they have seven opportunities against the top 25 to bolster their resume.

    Living on a Prayer (auto-bid only)
    Ball State
    Boston
    Dartmouth
    Eastern Kentucky
    Louisiana-Monroe
    Miami (FL)
    Middle Tennessee
    Northeastern
    Ole Miss
    Robert Morris
    TCU

    Good luck to the programs hoping to reach our level!
    Last edited by RapmasterAC; Mon Jan 06 2014 at 05:43 PM.

  4. #4
    RapmasterAC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StudentHokie View Post
    St. Mary's is in very good shape, at least as good as a team in their position in the WCC can be at this time of the year.

    Given Frank Martin's track record. I would expect that USC will be passing us by soon enought.
    St. Mary's has a nice track record they're building in the WCC.

    Agree with you on Martin and USC-E. It's only a matter of time.

    I'll be curious to see if Larranaga can scrape together another squad in the next couple years. Miami is one bid behind us.

  5. #5
    RapmasterAC's Avatar
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    Key upcoming games this week:

    Tues Jan. 7
    7pm (ESPN2) - Baylor @ #13 Iowa St. Would be a huge road for Baylor, as the Cyclones are #3 in the RPI.

    Wed Jan. 8
    7pm (regional nets) - St. Joe vs. UMass. UMass' A-10 schedule kicks off with a chance for a top 100 win.

    Sat Jan. 11
    11am (ESPN2) - Saint Louis @ Dayton. A top 50 win on the road would be huge for Saint Louis' resume.
    2:15pm (BTN) - Minnesota @ #5 Michigan St. Formidable but beatable, upsetting the Spartans would be a fantastic win for the Minnesota crew.

  6. #6
    RapmasterAC's Avatar
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    Joe Lunardi currently projects these teams in the NCAA field:

    Baylor - #4 seed
    UMass - #5 seed
    Saint Louis - #9 seed
    Minnesota - #12 play-in
    Saint Marys - #12 play-in (against Minnesota)
    Southern - #16

  7. #7
    RapmasterAC's Avatar
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    VT didn't get any momentum going this week, but other schools did! Here's the weekly recap:

    UMass (14-1, 2-0) racked up their first two conference wins (and another top 100 win) against St. Joes and St. Bonnie.

    Baylor (13-2, 1-1) lost a road game to Iowa St., who is soaring high thanks in part to a transfer from Marshall. Baylor then took care of business against TCU.

    Minnesota (13-4, 2-2) eeked out a win @ Penn St., but couldn't find the magic to steal another against Michigan St. on the road.

    Saint Louis (15-2, 2-0) picked up two road wins, including a much needed top 50 win against Dayton.

    Saint Mary's (13-5, 3-2) dropped a tough one against against a 150+ RPI Santa Clara squad, but rebounded to beat a top 100 team in San Francisco.


    This week is a little sparse on firepower, but here are the key upcoming games this week:

    Thursday
    9pm, ESPN2 - Minnesota vs. #3 Ohio State - 2nd of 4 games in a row Minnesota has against top 25 RPI teams

    Saturday
    2pm, ESPN - Baylor vs. Oklahoma - Baylor gets a crack at a top 25 RPI team at home

    Sunday
    1pm, BTN - Minnesota @ #20 Iowa - Probably the best chance for Minnesota to get a top 25 road win

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