8-23 overall (includes ACC tournament)
1-17 in the league
1 and done in the ACC tournament
Odds finishing with 16 wins in the regular season? 50-1 and as I type this analysis I'm starting to think this is way too low.
I'm trying to see how VT can get to .500 overall.
The first question is how many non conference games you think VT will win? There are 12 total. If you think VT has little chance of beating Michigan State and VCU (As I do). That means the best they could do is 10 non league wins and that assumes they beat WVU and the loser of the Oklahoma vs. Seton Hall game. That certainly isn't a given and I also don't think it's a given VT sweeps the non BCS league games.
But say VT goes 10-2 in the non-league slate. That means VT would need 6 league wins to finish greater than .500.
What are the chances of this team going 6-12 in the league? I don't think it's that high and that's the most optimistic non league performance I can comprehend.
Last edited by Gator Hokie; Tue Oct 29 2013 at 08:01 AM.
That certainly isn't a given and I also don't think it's a given VT sweeps the non BCS league games.
Nothing is a given, but you'd be hard-pressed to make a schedule that includes 8 worse opponents. Sagarin rankings from last year:
259 Western Carolina
all 8 of those at home. I predicted 9 OOC wins, figuring we beat those dregs plus either WVU or Seton Hall.
I certainly agree that 0.500 overall is a longshot.
10-21. 9 OOC wins and we slip in and beat someone in the ACC. We always get up for UVA but I think they sweep us again and we beat BC
You're underestimating how difficult it is to go winless (or have only 1 win) in conference, especially with two more games now. The only team to win less than 4 ACC games in any of the last four seasons was that god awful 1-15 2011 Wake team, and 2014 VT isn't nearly as bad as them.
VT may well be the worst team in the conference, and may not be favored in a single conference game, but over 18 games the probabilities add up and you're bound to grab a few.
Can't say that I'm sure, but I'd be really surprised if VT has that bad of a season. '11 Wake's top five contributors were freshmen and sophomores. It was the first season for Bzdelik, who I don't think is a good coach. Wake ended that season ranked 271 by kenpom; he has VT as preseason 154. You can't put a ton of stock into those preseason rankings, but I think that big of a gap shows that we're talking about two different tiers of badness. VT has several players who have shown something against ACC competition. There'll be nights where they're really on and/or the opponent is really off.