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  1. #11
    Senior Member NCHokie83's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vtox1 View Post
    Odds Hokies finish above .500?
    Wins - scarce
    Losses - overwhelming

    Odds at finishing above .500 - 250:1

  2. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pylons View Post
    9-3 OOC
    5-13 ACC
    0-1 ACC tourney

    14-17 but headed in the right direction...
    I like this. More bodies this year will help out a lot. We'll see if the scoring shows up though.

  3. #13
    Senior Member Gator Hokie's Avatar
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    8-23 overall (includes ACC tournament)
    1-17 in the league
    1 and done in the ACC tournament

    Odds finishing with 16 wins in the regular season? 50-1 and as I type this analysis I'm starting to think this is way too low.

    I'm trying to see how VT can get to .500 overall.

    The first question is how many non conference games you think VT will win? There are 12 total. If you think VT has little chance of beating Michigan State and VCU (As I do). That means the best they could do is 10 non league wins and that assumes they beat WVU and the loser of the Oklahoma vs. Seton Hall game. That certainly isn't a given and I also don't think it's a given VT sweeps the non BCS league games.

    But say VT goes 10-2 in the non-league slate. That means VT would need 6 league wins to finish greater than .500.

    What are the chances of this team going 6-12 in the league? I don't think it's that high and that's the most optimistic non league performance I can comprehend.
    Last edited by Gator Hokie; Tue Oct 29 2013 at 09:01 AM.

  4. #14
    Pylons's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gator Hokie View Post
    That certainly isn't a given and I also don't think it's a given VT sweeps the non BCS league games.
    Nothing is a given, but you'd be hard-pressed to make a schedule that includes 8 worse opponents. Sagarin rankings from last year:
    196 USC-Upstate
    259 Western Carolina
    273 Winthrop
    293 VMI
    299 Radford
    303 UNCG
    341 Furman
    344 UMES

    all 8 of those at home. I predicted 9 OOC wins, figuring we beat those dregs plus either WVU or Seton Hall.

    I certainly agree that 0.500 overall is a longshot.

  5. #15
    OrangeHokieFan's Avatar
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    10-21. 9 OOC wins and we slip in and beat someone in the ACC. We always get up for UVA but I think they sweep us again and we beat BC

  6. #16
    I think VT goes 10-21, 3-15 in ACC.

  7. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by OrangeHokieFan View Post
    10-21. 9 OOC wins and we slip in and beat someone in the ACC. We always get up for UVA but I think they sweep us again and we beat BC
    You're underestimating how difficult it is to go winless (or have only 1 win) in conference, especially with two more games now. The only team to win less than 4 ACC games in any of the last four seasons was that god awful 1-15 2011 Wake team, and 2014 VT isn't nearly as bad as them.

    VT may well be the worst team in the conference, and may not be favored in a single conference game, but over 18 games the probabilities add up and you're bound to grab a few.
    Last edited by 313A; Wed Oct 30 2013 at 10:30 PM.

  8. #18
    Senior Member Gator Hokie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 313A View Post
    that god awful 1-15 2011 Wake team, and 2014 VT isn't nearly as bad as them.
    Are you sure?

  9. #19
    RapmasterAC's Avatar
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    We can get double-digit wins. I'll be interested in seeing how this team plays.

  10. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gator Hokie View Post
    Are you sure?
    Can't say that I'm sure, but I'd be really surprised if VT has that bad of a season. '11 Wake's top five contributors were freshmen and sophomores. It was the first season for Bzdelik, who I don't think is a good coach. Wake ended that season ranked 271 by kenpom; he has VT as preseason 154. You can't put a ton of stock into those preseason rankings, but I think that big of a gap shows that we're talking about two different tiers of badness. VT has several players who have shown something against ACC competition. There'll be nights where they're really on and/or the opponent is really off.

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