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  1. #1
    Old Line Hokie's Avatar
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    Future of Division 1 Football

    After reading recent comments from the power 5 commissioners about the future of the FBS, it appears that there will either be a new FBS subdivision or the power 5 conferences will leave the NCAA and form their own college athletics association. With the enormous popularity and financial success of the NCAA men's basketball tournament, I can't see either the NCAA or the power 5 football conferences parting ways.

    Many "experts" are saying the power 5 conferences along with Notre Dame, BYU, and a few others will form a new 65 to 80 FBS division. I believe that a new FBS division will be formed but believe in the end that it will be closer to 90 than 65. I think politics will play a huge role in the final make-up of the FBS I (that's what I'm calling the new division).

    In 2014, the FBS will have 129 members and the FCS will have 126. Politics will get the AAC and MWC into the FBS I along with half the CUSA schools (Rice, Southern Miss, UAB, Marshall, UTEP, and LA Tech). Since Navy and Air Force are in, Army will be too. That gives the new FBS I 97 members. That means 32 current FBS schools will be left out. That's bad news for the MAC, Sun Belt, and remaining CUSA schools like ODU and Charlotte.

    The FBS 2 with the MAC, Sun Belt, and CUSA will likely add a few FCS conference like the Big Sky, CAA, and/or SoCon to get to 60 to 70 members. If the entire conferences don't move up, I still think there will be as many as 30 FCS schools joing FBS 2. I can see schools like Liberty, JMU, Furman, Delaware, Villanova, Eastern Washington, Montana,... moving up. The FCS will drop from 126 member schools to 90-100 schools.

    This movement of subdivisions has been occurring for the past decade. That's why you're seeing schools jump from CUSA to the Big East (now the AAC). That's why the WAC football conference recently died and most of their football members are now in the Mountain West. It looks like this game of NCAA Division I musical chairs is far from over.

  2. #2

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    O'Bannon court case has a potentially HUGE impact on D-1.
    John 3:16

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by wasris View Post
    O'Bannon court case has a potentially HUGE impact on D-1.
    Yep. It may speed the process up. Things like that dropping of the EA Sports deal may be the end of the NCAA and big time athletics.

  4. #4
    Old Line Hokie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wasris View Post
    O'Bannon court case has a potentially HUGE impact on D-1.
    I hope Ed O'Bannon loses. He's just looking for free money. That's like a politician or military person asking that he/she get paid for any video footage/images of them being shown on the History Channel. I can't see O'Bannon winning. Similar cases have tried before in court and lost. If he does win, the NCAA will fold and college sports will become professional. How many colleges will be able to afford to field a football team? Not many. The NFL will have to form a farm system like MLB.

  5. #5

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    I agree 65 is to small...I will go with 80. The other schools outside of the top 80 will not have the money to pay the scholarship stipend that is coming to the top tier.


    Quote Originally Posted by Old Line Hokie View Post
    After reading recent comments from the power 5 commissioners about the future of the FBS, it appears that there will either be a new FBS subdivision or the power 5 conferences will leave the NCAA and form their own college athletics association. With the enormous popularity and financial success of the NCAA men's basketball tournament, I can't see either the NCAA or the power 5 football conferences parting ways.

    Many "experts" are saying the power 5 conferences along with Notre Dame, BYU, and a few others will form a new 65 to 80 FBS division. I believe that a new FBS division will be formed but believe in the end that it will be closer to 90 than 65. I think politics will play a huge role in the final make-up of the FBS I (that's what I'm calling the new division).

    In 2014, the FBS will have 129 members and the FCS will have 126. Politics will get the AAC and MWC into the FBS I along with half the CUSA schools (Rice, Southern Miss, UAB, Marshall, UTEP, and LA Tech). Since Navy and Air Force are in, Army will be too. That gives the new FBS I 97 members. That means 32 current FBS schools will be left out. That's bad news for the MAC, Sun Belt, and remaining CUSA schools like ODU and Charlotte.

    The FBS 2 with the MAC, Sun Belt, and CUSA will likely add a few FCS conference like the Big Sky, CAA, and/or SoCon to get to 60 to 70 members. If the entire conferences don't move up, I still think there will be as many as 30 FCS schools joing FBS 2. I can see schools like Liberty, JMU, Furman, Delaware, Villanova, Eastern Washington, Montana,... moving up. The FCS will drop from 126 member schools to 90-100 schools.

    This movement of subdivisions has been occurring for the past decade. That's why you're seeing schools jump from CUSA to the Big East (now the AAC). That's why the WAC football conference recently died and most of their football members are now in the Mountain West. It looks like this game of NCAA Division I musical chairs is far from over.
    Last edited by Stech; Fri Jul 26 2013 at 07:53 PM.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stech View Post
    I agree 65 is to small...I will go with 80. The other schools outside of the top 80 will not have the money to pay the scholarship stipend that is coming to the top tier.
    I guess stadium capacity and TV deals will play a huge part in what non-power conference schools join the top tier? Right now there are 66 top tier football schools locked in if you include the Big 5 conferences and Notre Dame/BYU. So you feel 14 more will make the cut? Schools with healthier athletics departments like UConn, UNLV, Boise State, and USF will likely be a few of them. I can see the 3 military academies getting in too. Stech or any one else, what would your final 14 be if they went to 80?

  7. #7
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    The NCAA has been the NFL's minor league since the first draft in the 30's. This case won't change the NCAA for D2 or D3.

    EA will figure out a way to distribute funds to the athletes - maybe they all get a gift card of video games - who knows? It won't be huge numbers per player, but can add up when you think of all the teams represented (almost 300 D1A and D1AA) multiplied by 70 or likenesses per team, that's 21000 players involved. Give every player $100 worth of video games, that adds up to $2.1 million. To save costs, reduce the number of teams to about 100 most popular D1A, only include 50 likenesses per team. Jack up the game prices by $3-$5 dollars, and everybody is making money.

    All that has to happen is for the NCAA to allow it to happen.


    Quote Originally Posted by Old Line Hokie View Post
    I hope Ed O'Bannon loses. He's just looking for free money. That's like a politician or military person asking that he/she get paid for any video footage/images of them being shown on the History Channel. I can't see O'Bannon winning. Similar cases have tried before in court and lost. If he does win, the NCAA will fold and college sports will become professional. How many colleges will be able to afford to field a football team? Not many. The NFL will have to form a farm system like MLB.
    BCS level college football is a resource war, not a morality play.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Line Hokie View Post
    After reading recent comments from the power 5 commissioners about the future of the FBS, it appears that there will either be a new FBS subdivision or the power 5 conferences will leave the NCAA and form their own college athletics association. With the enormous popularity and financial success of the NCAA men's basketball tournament, I can't see either the NCAA or the power 5 football conferences parting ways.

    Many "experts" are saying the power 5 conferences along with Notre Dame, BYU, and a few others will form a new 65 to 80 FBS division. I believe that a new FBS division will be formed but believe in the end that it will be closer to 90 than 65. I think politics will play a huge role in the final make-up of the FBS I (that's what I'm calling the new division).

    In 2014, the FBS will have 129 members and the FCS will have 126. Politics will get the AAC and MWC into the FBS I along with half the CUSA schools (Rice, Southern Miss, UAB, Marshall, UTEP, and LA Tech). Since Navy and Air Force are in, Army will be too. That gives the new FBS I 97 members. That means 32 current FBS schools will be left out. That's bad news for the MAC, Sun Belt, and remaining CUSA schools like ODU and Charlotte.

    The FBS 2 with the MAC, Sun Belt, and CUSA will likely add a few FCS conference like the Big Sky, CAA, and/or SoCon to get to 60 to 70 members. If the entire conferences don't move up, I still think there will be as many as 30 FCS schools joing FBS 2. I can see schools like Liberty, JMU, Furman, Delaware, Villanova, Eastern Washington, Montana,... moving up. The FCS will drop from 126 member schools to 90-100 schools.

    This movement of subdivisions has been occurring for the past decade. That's why you're seeing schools jump from CUSA to the Big East (now the AAC). That's why the WAC football conference recently died and most of their football members are now in the Mountain West. It looks like this game of NCAA Division I musical chairs is far from over.
    I think we'll see the MWC and the AAC join the power 5 in the new NCAA subdivision. The AAC has already publicly asked to be included. I'm sure that the MWC will do the same. When Swofford spoke about this last week, he was saying 5-7 conferences. Schools from the other conferences like Sunbelt, Conference USA, MAC, etc. will have opportunities to move up just like they do now from FCS to FBS, but they will do so if the other conferences expand. Those conferences will stay in the lower division.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by HOO86 View Post
    I think we'll see the MWC and the AAC join the power 5 in the new NCAA subdivision. The AAC has already publicly asked to be included. I'm sure that the MWC will do the same. When Swofford spoke about this last week, he was saying 5-7 conferences. Schools from the other conferences like Sunbelt, Conference USA, MAC, etc. will have opportunities to move up just like they do now from FCS to FBS, but they will do so if the other conferences expand. Those conferences will stay in the lower division.
    I feel the same way. The WAC football schools are mostly in the MWC now and most of the original CUSA schools joined the Big East which is now the AAC. I'm surprised that Southern Miss with all their history and success are still in CUSA. IMHO, they should be in the top tier. They've been the best football program in Mississippi most of the past 25 years. They've beaten their share of SEC schools during that period too.

  10. #10

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    Excellent point. It all depends on the valuation. Exactly how much is a player's likeness worth? I'm willing to bet it is much less than they think.

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